Written by Scott on Thursday, December 12th, 2024
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Went with over 6 in the Rangers vs Sabres game but it only hit 5 when the Rangers won 3-2. I figured with both teams in desperate need of points and both struggling I would have thought that they would go off for the goals. Well that didn’t work.
The Sens beat the Ducks 5-1 and Batherson had a natural hat trick and added an assist.
From a slow night with only 2 games to 14 tonight.
Kings vs Devils
Kings have been playing well and are on a 6 game win streak. The Devils have dropped 2 in a row.
At home the Kings have been great going 10-2-1 but they are on the road here where they have gone 7-6-2. The Devils are a better road team, 11-4-0, than they are when playing at home 7-6-3.
Despite their win streak the Devils have better numbers in CF, FF, SF/60, GF/60 and XGF. So they are scoring more than the Kings and their expected goal numbers show that they should be scoring more still.
Penguins vs Canadiens
Both are 5-4-1 in last 10.
Penguins are in 7th in the Metro and the Habs are 8th in the Atlantic.
With the play of these teams I can’t back either with any confidence.
Ducks vs Leafs
Ducks are on a 4 game skid. The Leafs are 7-3 in last 10 and come i to this game in 2nd in the Atlantic. On the road the Ducks are 5-4-3 and at home the Leafs are 12-4-0
Would have to take the Leafs -2.5 to reach our minimum and I just don’t like that. Betting on a team to win by at least 3 is insane.
Capitals vs Jackets
The Caps continue to play well without Ovechkin, they have won 6 of 9 with him missing. On the road the Caps have been good going 11-2-0
The Jackets are 5-4-1 in last 10 and in 8th in the Metro. At home they have gone 8-4-1.
They played back at the start of November and the Caps won that one 7-2.
Greaves is getting the start for the Jackets which is his first NHL game of the season. Going to be a tough task though as the Caps rank 1st in GPG
Caps in regulation
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 1.95 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/12 10:36:40 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wings vs Flyers
Wings are 4-4-2 last 10 and 6-6-2 on the road. They are in 6th in the Atlantic
Flyers are 5-3-2 last 10 and 6-8-1 at home. They are in 5th in the Metro.
Both teams rank in the 20s in GPG and GAPG which makes it tough to predict a winner with no clear advantage for either team.
Blackhawks vs Islanders
Easy pass here.
I don’t have any faith in my Hawks this year and the Isles are having a tough season.
Knights vs Jets
Should be a good game here. They played back at the end of November with the Knights winning 4-3.
The Knights are on a 3 game win streak and are 7-2-1 in last 10 and are 7-4-3 on the road.
Jets are still in a slump, for the standard they set for themselves this season, but are in 2nd in the Central, tied for points with the Wild but have played 2 more games.
It’s hard to read too much the stats and data about the Jets. They are 4th in GPG and 2nd in GAPG but over their last 10 they are averaging 2.68 per game. I feel better avoiding the Jets until I see if they are the team of late or the team that was setting records to start the season.
Predators vs Stars
Not much needs to be said about this game.
Predators are on a 8 game losing skid and are 2-9-4 on the road.
The Stars are 6-4 in last 10 and 11-2-0 at home.
I’m going with the Stars here. If this is the game where the Preds end their slump then so be it.
Stars in regulation
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/12 10:36:40 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Sharks vs Blues
Passing here.
Oilers vs Wild
Big game here. They played back in November and the Wild won 5-3.
The Oilers are 7-3 last 10 and on a 3 game win streak. The Wild are 7-2-1 last 10 and in 1st place overall.
They are basically tied in so many stats is kinda crazy. CF, SF/60, GA/60, XGF and XGA.
Tough to call with the way the Oilers have managed to turn things around and the Wild in 1st.
Utah vs Avalanche
Not really liking anything here.
Utah is 5-3-2 last 10. They aren’t generally a team that bet on going back to their time in Arizona.
Avalanche are on a 3 game win streak but they are at home where they’ve gone 7-7. Just not good enough to persuade me to take them here.
Panthers vs Canucks
Panthers continue to be a strong team. They are on a 3 game win streak and are ranked in the top 10 in GPG, Shots, SOGA, Power Play and Penalty Kill.
I would say that they should win this game but the Canucks are starting to get players back. Demko returned last game and Miller has resumed practicing so the team should have the momentum on their side as they try to climb the Pacific standings.
Bruins vs Kraken
The Kraken have lost their last 3 games at home but the Bruins road record of 6-6-1 isn’t going to intimidate many teams.
Bruins haven’t gained my trust yet. It’s getting closer but they aren’t there yet for me.
Kraken are also tough team to predict.
Is it only me or does Capitals in regulation look like the biggest value bet we have seen so far during this season? For me it is a must bet, I don’t know..
Nice NHL matches today
To score I have A. Laferriere for Kings
Z. Werenski for Blue Jackets
J. Huberdeau for Flames
I play all in a combo with 2.5u. My return is 80u
To win I have Kings -1 ( means they have to win by two goals or more)
Predators Reg
Utah -1
All in a combo with 2.5 u
I considered Werenski and Laferriere as well but there are so many options it’s been difficult for me to try and narrow down. Hope it cashes for you good luck.
With the amount of games I have highlighted quite a lot of potential goal scorer props. However, I’m still debating exactly how many of these I should risk playing. So far the only play I’ve wagered on is Toronto William Nylander to score. Even that was a tough choice between him and Matthews. Matthews is going at minus money which helped factor in the decision. Another option I considered was a same game parlay with both which pays out at +300.
Toronto Nylander to score +120
12 goals in 16 games at home. 7 goals in 13 career games vs Anaheim. Matthews has scored 7 goals in 9 home games so far this season. 10 goals in 13 career games vs Anaheim. So ultimately it was the price on Nylander that made me go with him as the pick.
Washington Chychrun to score +460
Super long shot probably won’t come through. Carlson could be another option as a defender. Slightly better price too at +500. Carlson also has shot more than Chychrun, just has yet to see the results. McMichael at +180 is probably the best option and it’s a decent price too.
Other goal scorer props Im considering but haven’t bet yet.
Tampa Bay Point +155
Others on Tampa I’ve considered were Kucherov, Guentzel and Cirelli. Cirelli might be out with an injury. Guentzel is on a four game goal scoring streak. I’m unsure if I want to ride that and bank him scoring in five straight. But he’s putting up the shot volume and is capable. Sometimes that can even be something teammates go for and playing with Kucherov and Point will definitely add to those opportunities. Kucherov is definitely capable of scoring as well but I seem to always choose Point instead. I’m hesitant to take Point because his current shooting percentage is 36.7. That’s absurdly high and I’m concerned about regression at some point. Just not sure when. He has hit over 20 percent last two seasons, but current pace of 18 goals in 22 games seems unsustainable.
Dallas Marchment +270
Like the price which is why he’s being considered. But I also highlighted Duchene, Hintz and Johnston as options. And Robertson is still a candidate as well. So difficult for me to say it’ll be Marchment with confidence.
Colorado Colton +270
The usual suspects Mckinnon, Makar, Rantanen, Nichuskin and Lehkonen. But Colton has been productive as well. Missed a lot of time with injury. Has scored once in three games since coming back. Rantanen is probably the safest pick, while Colton probably has the most upside. He now has 9 goals in just 13 games, so like Point this is probably unsustainable.
Detroit Larkin +180
He and New Jerseys Hischier +210, are in that they are due to score any minute now range. But it’s tough to predict when scoring droughts end for some players. Larkin’s sits at 7 games without a goal, while Nico is a more manageable 4 game drought.
So far my only plays are Toronto William Nylander to score +120, and a long shot on Washington Chychrun at +460. You could swap Nylander for Matthews or put them in a same game parlay to boost it to +300.