Written by Scott on Tuesday, December 13th, 2022
Follow @BetNHL
Had 2 tips yesterday and went 1-1.
The win was the Sens to win in regulation against the Ducks which they did 3-0. DeBrincat scored two powerplay goals for the Sens.
The loss was the Devils to beat the Rangers. The Devils were up 3-1 but the Rangers scored 2 goals in 7 seconds to tie it up and in the end it was the Rangers winning 4-3 in overtime.
The Canadiens beat the Flames 2-1 in a shootout, the Pens beat the Stars 2-1 and the Blues beat the Preds 1-0 in OT in what was a boring game to watch.
So we have 12 games tonight.
Ducks vs Leafs
The odds are so heavily for the Leafs that I can’t have a tip for this game. A Leafs -1.5 play is only 1.58. I have to skip this one.
Kraken vs Lightning
What a difference a year makes. The Kraken had a rough first season but this year they are one of the better teams in the league. They are in 2nd place in the Pacific and 8th in GPG.
The Lightning are in 3rd in the Atlantic and 7th in GPG.
Both teams have gone 7-3 over the last 10 games. On the road the Kraken have gone 9-2-1 and at home the Lightning have gone 10-4-1.
In GPG the Kraken are 5th and the Lightning 7th and for GAPG the Kraken are 18th and the Lighting are 13th. This means both scored a bunch and have a hard time keeping them out.
Over 6 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -114 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/13 9:39:59 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Stars vs Devils
Both teams played and lost last night and despite the losses both teams are still high in the standings.
The Devils are home where they have gone 10-4-1 and the Stars are on the road where they have gone 7-5-2.
The Stars are ranked 4th in GPG with 3.66 and 8th in GAPG with 2.79 and the Devils are 3rd with 3.68 and 2nd with 2.79.
With both teams playing yesterday and not taking the loss I’m having a tough time with this game.
Kings vs Sabres
The Kings are in the top half of the league when it comes to offensive numbers but defensively they are near the bottom for GAPG. The Sabres are the 3rd ranked team in GPG but they struggle defensively like the Kings do.
Both teams can have games where they look like they could compete for the Cup but they follow that up with a lousy effort the next game.
The over/under is set at 7 which makes that an easy pass for me
Jackets vs Panthers
They played once already this season and it was the Jackets winning 5-3 in Columbus.
The Jackets have gone 4-5-1 in their last 10 and are on the road where they have gone 2-5-1. The Panthers have lost their last 2 and have gone 4-4-2 over last 10 and are at home for this one where they have gone a respectable 7-3-3.
It’s the Panthers home success that has them the favorites for this game. If we were to take the Panthers we would need to take them -1.5 and even that is only 1.83.
With both teams results if late I have to skip this game.
Islanders vs Bruins
The Isles have gone 6-4 in last 10 and are in 5th in the Metro with 34 points. The Bruins have gone 7-2-1.
With this game being in Boston and with the last game in Boston their first home loss of the year the players are excited to pick up another win at home. The Bruins are 1st in GPG and GAPG and the Isles are 15th and 7th so I’ll go with the Bruins here.
Bruins win in regulation
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -145 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/13 9:39:59 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Hurricanes vs Wings
The Canes have needed extra time is 6 of their last 12 games. Last 10 they have gone 5-1-4.
The Wings have lost their last 2 games and have gone 7-4-3 at home.
This should be a good game and I would have to take the Canes in regulation but as I mentioned there have been too many OT games for them of late so I’m skipping.
Knights vs Jets
The Jets are playing well at the moment. They have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games and the Knights have gone 5-5.
Both teams are in the top 5 for GAPG with the Knights 5th and the Jets 4th. The Knights away record is 12-2-1 and the Jets home record is 10-4-0.
On paper this should be a good game with both teams in 1st in their respective divisions. But the Knights are really banged up at the moment with Eichel, Theodore, Pietrangelo and Whitecloud all out.
Another game which could go either way.
Oilers vs Predators
I’m not sure there is anything I like from this game.
The Oilers have lost their last game and the Preds have dropped their last 3. The Oilers road record of 7-6 is pretty close to the Preds home record of 7-4-2.
Nothing I like from this game
Flyers vs Avalanche
The Flyers have been a bad team all season and enter this game on a 3 game losing skid.
The Avalanche won their last game but are 4-5-1 over the last 10 games.
Surely the Avs win this game but they are learning to adjust to a team without MacKinnon. To get any value on the Avalanche we need to take them in at least regulation. Their last 2 games both needed extra time with a shootout loss to the Rangers and an OT win against the Blues. I have to pass.
Capitals vs Blackhawks
The Caps are on a 4 game win streak and the Hawks have lost 3 in a row.
The Hawks have gone 1-8-1 in their last 10 which isn’t good at all. They are in 31st overall with 18 points which has them only ahead of the Ducks by a single point.
With the Caps the heavy favorites we would need to take them in regulation to get over our minimum. It usually is tough to bet on the away team but with the way the Hawks have struggled I think it’s worth it.
Capitals in regulation
Ontario: 1.79 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 1.79 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -145 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/13 9:39:59 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Coyotes vs Sharks
The Coyotes have win their last 2 games and the Sharks have won 1.
Their records are similar with the Coyotes 9-13-4 and the Sharks 9-16-5. On the road the Coyotes have gone 6-11-3 and at home the Sharks have gone 2-8-5.
Either team gives me confidence in picking them and I feel it best to skip this game.
I like Caps to win in reg, they have been on a heater and at 1.79 hard to pass up.
I’m late to the Boston pick but heard tell Krejci was practicing with PP2 unit today. If he comes back that moves Hall down to line 3 for depth the Isles can’t match. If Ullmark is starting, I feel okay taking Boston -1.5 at 2.04.
As I’m typing this, I’m second guessing Buffalo over LA. Sabres home record against western conference teams is.. not good. LA been a bit spotty going W-L-W-L type pattern I feel like they get the W here. Odds are a 50/50 coinflip with SIA but will probably take LA Kings Win just for the fun of it.
Bet that wasn’t very fun lol
Couldn’t find any value on any favorites. The closest i was gonna get was Carolina when they opened at -140 in the overnight lines. However I didn’t pull the trigger and now with Aho ruled out and the price move to -170 the value has been lost to me.
So I’ve switched to a couple underdog plays. Keeping in mind low expectations on any of these actually hitting, each bet will only be at half unit. In all instances I expect the favorites to win I just believe they are priced too high.
Dallas +140
Both teams off back to back. Devils should be the more angry off the division loss and blowing the 2-0 and 3-1 leads. They also could be the more fatigued team as well both emotionally and physically. Dallas at about 41 percent win probability feels a little too low to me.
Seattle +165
Priced at about 38 percent, Seattle continues to surprise. Both teams in good form over their last 10. Tampa impressive at home but would not be shocked at a Kraken upset.
Anaheim +400
Priced at just 20 percent you rarely see lines get this high. There might not be any team more deserving then the lowly Ducks but stranger things have happened. Sometimes you just buy a price because it’s so damn cheap.
Anaheim +2.5 at -115
Tying into the above bet can the Ducks avoid losing be 3? They’ve only been able to stay within this range in 2 of the 6 games played this month winning just one game outright. However looking back to last month we see 10 out of 14 games this bet would have cashed. Toronto has won by 3 goals or more in just 7 of their 29 games played this year so far (24 percent). Goes to show just how difficult it is to win by the margin. Toronto does have a good rest spot having not played since Saturday. Can we get them to look ahead to their Thursday road game vs the Rangers and take their foot off the gas a bit and save some energy if the game is in hand? Would certainly help the Ducks chances to keep it close.
Well, this sucks.
Today I had 3 system bets.
System 1: 4/6, 5/6, 6/6 (2.50 euro per line, 7.50 on the 6/6) Max win ~3k
Bruins -1.5
Panthers – Jackets Over 6.5
Knights in reg
Canes in reg
Messi to score
Caps -1.5
System 2: 4/6, 5/6, 6/6 (2.50 euro per line, 7.50 on the 6/6) Max win ~3k
Bruins -1.5
Leafs -2.5
Lightning -1.5
Devils in reg
Argentina -1.5
Caps -1.5
System 3: 4/5, 5/5 (10 euro per line) Max win ~750
Bruins
Lightning
Canes
Argentina
Caps
Bruins really screwed me today. It looked so bright early on, but they played poor today. Unfortunately.
Caps can still turn it a profit if they win by 2 or more, though the Bruins not winning in regulation really really hurt. Max possible win now is 265 euros, with a Bruins win it would be 900, and with Bruins winning by 2 it would be 1700.
This happens to me a lot – I make the wrong combinations and choose the wrong core games. Should have gone with Leafs and Lightning, which I would if I didn’t miss yesterday and paid attention to the fact Bruins were traveling cross country all day.
800!! Incredible way to do it with a hat trick!
Graeme testing