Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 14th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
Like I said yesterday – the Sens were a solid value bet, so hopefully some of you got on that. They ended up thumping the Canes in a bit of a surprise with a big 3-0 victory.
Any Gavin & Stacey fans out there? I’m re-watching it prior to the Christmas Day special. Hard to pull myself away – what a great show. Binged the entire first season this morning.
Alright tis a big Saturday let’s get to it:
Devils vs Blackhawks
Devils should win obviously – would have to be -1.5. At the 1.76 odds, data just isn’t there for it. Their xG is there but I’d prefer a higher GF/60 and Blackhawks xGA/60.
Rangers vs Kings
Rangers still struggling for consistency. Kings just had their nice winning run ended. Always makes me a bit wary how a team will respond. My gut says the Rangers get the W here after that. However metrics go the Kings way with the Rangers GA/60 and xGA/60 being the big outliers there at 3.9 and 3.44 over the last 10. Not seeing a play here.
Wild vs Flyers
Wild coming in off that humiliation by the Oilers. Really leaking goals at the moment. Philly come in with two big wins in a row.
I was hoping this one would be an easy over 5.5 but that isn’t the case – the Corsi & Fenwick aren’t there. Flyers offense definitely producing and have a solid xGF. I think they can get the goals but not sure the Wild can match.
But the Flyers are decent underdogs so makes them a potential play. Coming in with momentum after that sick Laughton performance too – the ovation he got etc, that sort of thing can really bring a team together.
Ersson is confirmed. Wild going with Fleury – really thought Gustavsson would get a redemption arc there. I mean Phillys wins were over two teams very low on the power rankings. They’ve not really played many teams in the top 10 just the Panthers where they lost 5-7.
I’ll be honest – the more I dive into it, the more I see things against it. But I just can’t pull myself away from it. Still think there is value and merit in a Philly win.
Flyers win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.35 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.35 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: +130 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 2.30 Odds at Intertops.
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/14 9:05:34 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Golden Knights
Oilers on a good run here. Knights playing well too. These two just played on December 3rd. I do like the Oilers here despite that fast turnaround, and their goaltending is hot at the moment – I’d just like to see more creativity. Their xG is low compared to GF/60 and the Knights goaltending has been on point. Very goaltending specific matchup.
Blue Jackets vs Ducks
Jackets hefty favourites here. Looking at the metrics – not really a team I wish to back.
Capitals vs Sabres
Caps in regulation would have to be the play. Generally looks fine. Buffalos offense should be performing better in terms of scoring. Caps do have a highish xGA but that hasn’t really resulted in more goals for Buffalo when they play similar teams.
Caps in regulation looks fine here.
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -120 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/14 9:05:34 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Jets vs Canadiens
Jets not a team I am interested in backing at -1.5 right now.
Senators vs Penguins
With Sens playing last night, happy to pass. By the actual advanced metrics – eh it’s a tough one. If the Pens goaltending could be sorted out they could get the W here but I’d expect Ottawa to come in with the big momentum.
Red Wings vs Leafs
I’m good not backing the Leafs right now. The data leans them but not overwhelming enough to back them in regulation here.
Stars vs Blues
Data just isn’t there for Stars -1.5.
Avalanche vs Predators
AVs with a nice run ended at home to Utah. Not a team I really have confidence to back. Preds just ended their slump too. Happy to pass. Metrics are iffy on it all anyway.
Canucks vs Bruins
Looks like a good spot for Vancouver to face off against Boston, who have been destroyed their last couple of games.
Unfortunately, it’s the xG stats that put me off. Canucks have a very low xGF/60 of 2.22, Bruins have a very low xGA/60 of 2.37. Despite current results, that is a concern for me and I gotta pass.
Flames vs Panthers
Definite lean on the Panthers but not enough to back on the road in regulation especially with the Flames goaltending being erratic – that could come back down to earth.
Kraken vs Lightning
Bit of a tricky one this. Tampa better CF% & FF%. Scoring more but creating less, bith teams conceding a fair but with Tampa a low xGA/60. Definite lean towards Tampa but I’d price them at what they bookies have them so no value.
Sharks vs Utah
By the data I’m not up for a Utah in regulation on the road play here. Their offense is grotesquely overperforming. I don’t see them having trouble tbh here so if you’re looking for a third play, could see them in regulation.
Right – back to my Gavin & Stacey binge!
Flyers -1, Red Wings -1 and Blues -1
To score: B. Howden for Knights and R. Rakell for Penguins