Written by Graeme on Sunday, December 15th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
1-1 for a slight loss yesterday.
The Caps got the job done in solid fashion, with a good 3rd period from them after falling behind early.
Lost with Philly against the Wild. Thought the Flyers were actually the better team, but they couldn’t finish their chances, and Minnesota finished theirs. At the end of the day that was the difference. Fleury had a very good game as well. A bit of a flattering scoreline for the Wild.
Glad I stayed away from that Canucks one with the xG metrics. That is one of those games where if I didn’t base my picks on advanced metrics, I would have likely taken Vancouver.
Five games today. Will be back to backs galore so we’ll see how that goes.
Blackhawks vs Islanders
Hawks on a B2B and these two teams just played in what was a 9 goal thriller. Islanders likely win, but the metrics really aren’t there for the on road in regulation play.
Leafs vs Sabres
My god the Leafs CF/60 is horrific at the moment at 55.1. I see nothing backable in this game.
Hurricanes vs Jackets
Canes with the day off yesterday and you’d think they would bounce back strong here after that Sens loss. Very inconsistent at the moment though and clearing the handicap – which is what we’d have to bet – isn’t a given.
I basically need the metrics to scream “back the handicap” for this play and they certainly do not. I mean both have same GF/60 last 10 and the Canes have a worse GA/60. Gut says that yeah Canes do it but by the data, it’s not even remotely a considerable play. I wouldn’t even take them incl OT/SO.
Blues vs Rangers
Both on a B2B. Both a mess. By the metrics, a sneaky play on the Blues actually looks good. Like – they are better in many data points. They have Fowler starting which may give them a lift.
This is actually very close to a play on the Blues. I assume Quick is in net which makes it a no-starter, but on the off chance he isnt:
Blues win incl OT/SO if Shesterkin in net
Ontario: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +125 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/15 8:20:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Knights
Tight one. No play.
K. Palmieri for Islanders
J. Roslovic for Hurricanes
T. Thompson for Sabres
C. Kreider for Rangers
All to score
Carolina Necas to score +135
Lot of options so unsure if this is the correct choice. I feel like he’s been pretty consistent this season though.
Toronto William Nylander to score +130
Was between him and Tavares +195.
Vegas Dorofeyev to score FIRST +1800
I like the way Dorofeyev has started off the last couple games. Seems a little snake bit. You could switch this to score anytime at +300.