Written by Scott on Tuesday, December 17th, 2024
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The Panthers vs Oilers game was a good one. I had the Oilers to win which I thought was a good play with them at home on a 5 game win streak and the Panthers having just one goal in their last 3 games. The Panthers won 6-5.
The Stars beat the Caps 3-1 ending the Caps win streak at 4 games and the Canucks beat the Avalanche 3-1 with Demko picking his first win of the season and Sherwood scoring his first career hat trick.
Its a Tuesday so we have a busy night with 10 games.
Sabres vs Canadiens
There is nothing I can back here.
The Sabres have lost 10 in a row and it’s all falling apart on them.
The Canadiens have lost 2 in a row and are 4-5-1 in last 10.
These teams are in 7th and 8th in the Atlantic with only 1 point separating them.
Jackets vs Lightning
Jackets have lost 4 in a row and 7 of their last 8 games. On the road they haven’t been good where they are 4-10-2.
The Lightning have won 2 in a row and and are at home where they are 8-4-1.
They last played on November 21st and the Jackets won that one 7-6.
To get any value we would have to take thr Lightning -1.5. That’s possible as their last 4 wins have covered the spread but the Jackets have had 2 of their last 3 games go to OT which has me worried about that play.
Kings vs Penguins
Kings are playing well going 8-2 in last 10 and are in 2nd place in the Pacific. They rank 1st in GAPG and SOGA.
The Pens are in 6th in the Metro and have gone 6-3-1 on last 10. The rank 31st in GAPG and 30th SOGA.
This game is actually much closer than I thought initially. CF, SF/60, GF/60 and XGF are all close with the Pens having the edge.
Islanders vs Hurricanes
Tough to try and call a winner here.
The Isles are 4-4-2 in last 10 and 6-6-5 on the road. The Canes are 5-5-0 in last 10 and they are at home where they have been playing well going 12-4-0 in North Carolina.
These teams just played back on the December 7th and the Isles won that game 4-3.
The Canes have the advantage in Corsi, shots for and against, GF and XGF. With all that said I like the Canes chances here even more so with them at home.
Canes win in regulation
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -145 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/17 10:00:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Rangers vs Predators
Both are playing poorly so I can’t back either team here.
Devils vs Blues
These teams played back on November 27th and the Blues won 3-0.
Devils are a team that plays better on the road. At home they have gone 9-6-3 but on the road they are 11-4-0.
Blues are 6-2-2 last 10. They are under .500 at home going 6-7-1 in St. Louis.
Would have to take the Devils in regulation here to get the odds above 1.70. But the Blues have been fairly decent in last 10 which has me put off of that regulation play.
Capitals vs Blackhawks
Caps played yesterday and had their win streak snapped at 4 games.
The Hawks are coming off of a win but are 3-7 in last 10 and 5-8-0 at home.
With the Caps playing yesterday and the Hawks a mess I’m passing.
Bruins vs Flames
Bruins are 6-4 in last 10 and 7-7-1 on the road. The Flames are 3-5-2 in last 10 and in the middle of a 5 game home stand. They have been decent at home going 11-4-1
The Corsi numbers are tied but the Bruins are leading in SF, SA, GF, GA and in both expected goal categories.
I was going to skip this game but the numbers point to a Bruins win.
Bruins win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.77 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 1.77 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -127 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.76 Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lvOdds at
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/17 10:00:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Kraken
Sens have been playing well. They are 7-2-1 in last 10 and on a 3 game win streak. They are only 3 points out of 3rd in the Atlantic.
The Kraken are playing .500 hockey this season. They are 15-15-2 and in 6th in the Pacific.
I wanted to take the Sens as they have been playing well but the data suggests this game is close. They are scoring more than expected but besides that the Kraken are close to the Sens.
Jets vs Sharks
The Jets are 4-5-1 in last 10 and Sharks are 5-5.
They are still in 1st in their division and overall but they haven’t been playing as well as they did to start the season.
The Sharks are 5-5 in last 10 and at home they have gone 6-7-1.
I would think the Jets should be able to handle the Sharks with ease but their play of late doesn’t give me the faith in them that I had at the start of the season.
Rangers vs Nashville OVER 5.5 -130
Rangers defense hasn’t been good. Nashville has gotten opportunities but has struggled to convert. So maybe a bit unlucky. Rangers might be without Panarin, but still have options. Nashville has been allowing a lot of shots this month. And has allowed 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 10. Both teams should be desperate to get the win. Total feels low to me. There are 6’s out there at some books if you prefer the lower line.
Considering goal scorers potentially. Haven’t bet any of these. For the Rangers Kreider at +270 sticks out but I think I would prefer taking a bigger shot on someone like Chytil +340 or Reilly Smith +330. For Nashville it would be Forsberg +145 or Marchessault +190. Forsberg has now gone 9 games without a goal. But has also taken 30 shots on goal during that span. So may break through here. Most of those games were on the road and he has performed decently at home so maybe that will help. Marchessault is another possible option, but Id lean Forsberg at home here. I’ll actually take a shot on Forsberg to score. And Chytil at that price and potentially centering the top line is too good to pass up.
Columbus Marchenko to score +260
Can score on the road. Has taken 15 shots on goal over the last three games. Gets a decent price because of who he’s facing. In his career he’s scored 5 goals in 6 games vs Tampa on 20 shots.
Tampa Bay Cirelli to score +260
The usual suspects of Point, Guentzel Kucherov and Hagel are all options. Guentzel is on a 6 game scoring streak currently. But maybe a game where others step up and get involved while Tampa’s top performers look to pass more. This could lead to opportunities for someone like Cirelli or Nick Paul +290 at better odds.
Recap
Rangers vs Nashville OVER 5.5 -135
Goal Scorer Props
Columbus Marchenko +260
Rangers Chytil +340
Tampa Bay Cirelli +260
Nashville Forsberg +145