Written by Graeme on Sunday, December 18th, 2022
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A 3-1 night last night.
Lightning won the race to 3 goals as expected. I would have been quite upset if that didn’t happen as everything pointed at it. Buffalo also got over 3.5 goals which was a sweat for a bit but came in.
Jets got the win yesterday and I was happy to see it was dominant because they were overwhelmingly the better side yesterday by the data.
Kings/Sharks couldn’t get the goals. I did say goaltending might be an issue and that was the case. The teams put up over 7 goals in xG so variance was the issue there so they created the chances I expect. With goaltending being a question mark that I highlighted, I probably should have skipped that one.
Let’s look at Sundays games:
Wild vs Senators:
It’s quite fascinating how few goals the Sens score 5 vs 5 compared to anything else. And we actually saw that yesterday with both power play goals and short handed goals.
Not seeing anything on this one. Wild maybe a tad too heavily favoured here but not enough for me to back the Sens on value. Both teams can score but GA/60 isn’t the numbers you want if backing an over 6 and neither is the xGA.
Hurricanes vs Penguins:
One thing I enjoy about using advanced metrics for my basis for picks is for games like this. When I look at it, I can openly say “Man, I have no clue” but that’s okay – because I can look at the metrics and data instead, and use that as a baseline to see whether it’s worth exploring for a potential bet.
Pens scoring slightly more and conceding slightly less. Pens Canes underperforming offensively, Pens overperforming with their goalie. Pens impressive SCGF/60 of 2.98 to Canes 2.56.
I’d say the sportsbooks have this one absolutely dead on odds wise. Canes about 1.83 yep that seem’s about right I would just give them that slight little edge too.
Blackhawks vs Rangers:
Blackhawks come in playing very poorly. These two played on December 2nd and Chicago won 5-2. I mean right there – how can you even consider backing the Rangers? They just lost to them at home. And Rangers were coming in off a win there too. It’s silly.
Anyway if you’re looking for a bet here – it’s probably Rangers winning the race to 3. It’s ot a play I can advise as I just don’t see the value in it – but it’s the likely thing to happen. Odds are 1.71 for it which are just too low for me. Their xGF/60 is 2.8 and SCGF/60 2.55 so those are too low for me to back this one, even though the Blackhawks defensive metrics do balance that out. I’d need better odds.
Kraken vs Jets:
Jets off that big win last night. Rittich probably in net which is a drop down sadly. He does have four wins of course, one of which were against Seattle.
Jets are on a back to back but the numbers do indicate they will be able to score goals here. Looking at previous back to backs yeah I gotta think they can – even if one of those were the Kraken and they only got the 2 in regulation.
All the key metrics are good for the Jets to get the goals here. Race to 3 is a tad iffy though as Kraken are good goalscorers. And actually if Rittich is in net, it’s possible this one goes over. In saying that, Krakens offense is a tad cold and some of the numbers are skewed due to that crazy week in November.
So I’m a bit conflicted on this one. The over is a possibility, but we’re backing the Kraken offense to perform there, and Rittich to be a factor in that. While if we want something like Jets winning the race to 3 goals (over 2.5 goals odds are trash), we’re kind of backing the Kraken won’t be as hot offensively.
I’m going to go with Jets win the race to 3 goals. The Kraken offense is just inconsistent enough looking back through the entire season data, that there’s more chance they won’t show up than do. This really is a close one though, and so I’m basically gambling on what I foresee to be two even sided situations, but going with the one with the higher odds.
Ontario: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.40 Odds at Bovada
USA: +140 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/18 7:33:24 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Sharks vs Flames:
I’m pretty happy to avoid anything Flames related right now. I did say that I didn’t understand why they were favoured like they were against the Blues. On the road in San Jose, they are fairly heavily favoured still and I just don’t get it. I mean yeah I’d price them as slight favourites but 1.58? Cmon.
And actually Sharks outperforming them in SCGF/60 as well. The one problem with the Sharks is defense and goaltending. That is really costing them at the moment. Kahkonen is confirmed who is a bit of a liability.
Yeah nothing for me on this one.
I have made a list to look if goalies probability to get into overtime is high:
Ilya Sorokin New York Islanders consecutive games without overtime: 22
Logan Thompson Vegas Golden Knights consecutive games without overtime: 22
Jake Allen Montréal Canadiens consecutive games without overtime: 21
Cam Talbot Ottawa Senators consecutive games without overtime: 17
Connor Hellebuyck Winnipeg Jets consecutive games without overtime: 17
Marc-Andre Fleury Minnesota Wild consecutive games without overtime: 16
Sergei Bobrovsky Florida Panthers consecutive games without overtime: 15
Spencer Martin Vancouver Canucks consecutive games without overtime: 15
Andrei Vasilevskiy Tampa Bay Lightning consecutive games without overtime: 14
Jack Campbell Edmonton Oilers consecutive games without overtime: 14
Elvis Merzlikins Columbus Blue Jackets consecutive games without overtime: 14
Anthony Stolarz Anaheim Ducks consecutive games without overtime: 13
Ilya Samsonov Toronto Maple Leafs consecutive games without overtime: 12
Eric Comrie Buffalo Sabres consecutive games without overtime: 11
Thomas Greiss St. Louis Blues consecutive games without overtime: 10
Casey DeSmith Pittsburgh Penguins consecutive games without overtime: 9
Charlie Lindgren Washington Capitals consecutive games without overtime: 9
Pavel Francouz Colorado Avalanche consecutive games without overtime: 9
Joonas Korpisalo Columbus Blue Jackets consecutive games without overtime: 9
Philipp Grubauer Seattle Kraken consecutive games without overtime: 9
Akira Schmid New Jersey Devils consecutive games without overtime: 8
Frederik Andersen Carolina Hurricanes consecutive games without overtime: 8
Brian Elliott Tampa Bay Lightning consecutive games without overtime: 8
Kevin Lankinen Nashville Predators consecutive games without overtime: 8
Martin Jones Seattle Kraken consecutive games without overtime: 8
Mackenzie Blackwood New Jersey Devils consecutive games without overtime: 7
Petr Mrazek Chicago Blackhawks consecutive games without overtime: 7
Jake Oettinger Dallas Stars consecutive games without overtime: 7
Tristan Jarry Pittsburgh Penguins consecutive games without overtime: 6
Arvid Soderblom Chicago Blackhawks consecutive games without overtime: 6
Thatcher Demko Vancouver Canucks consecutive games without overtime: 6
Filip Gustavsson Minnesota Wild consecutive games without overtime: 6
David Rittich Winnipeg Jets consecutive games without overtime: 6
Jaroslav Halak New York Rangers consecutive games without overtime: 5
Igor Shesterkin New York Rangers consecutive games without overtime: 5
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen Buffalo Sabres consecutive games without overtime: 5
Pheonix Copley Los Angeles Kings consecutive games without overtime: 5
Karel Vejmelka Arizona Coyotes consecutive games without overtime: 5
Lukas Dostal Anaheim Ducks consecutive games without overtime: 4
Adin Hill Vegas Golden Knights consecutive games without overtime: 4
Felix Sandstrom Philadelphia Flyers consecutive games without overtime: 3
Matt Murray Toronto Maple Leafs consecutive games without overtime: 3
Antti Raanta Carolina Hurricanes consecutive games without overtime: 3
Pyotr Kochetkov Carolina Hurricanes consecutive games without overtime: 3
Spencer Knight Florida Panthers consecutive games without overtime: 3
John Gibson Anaheim Ducks consecutive games without overtime: 3
Kaapo Kahkonen San Jose Sharks consecutive games without overtime: 3
Connor Ingram Arizona Coyotes consecutive games without overtime: 3
Carter Hart Philadelphia Flyers consecutive games without overtime: 2
Jeremy Swayman Boston Bruins consecutive games without overtime: 2
Craig Anderson Buffalo Sabres consecutive games without overtime: 2
Magnus Hellberg Detroit Red Wings consecutive games without overtime: 2
Ville Husso Detroit Red Wings consecutive games without overtime: 2
Jordan Binnington St. Louis Blues consecutive games without overtime: 2
Alexandar Georgiev Colorado Avalanche consecutive games without overtime: 2
Daniil Tarasov Columbus Blue Jackets consecutive games without overtime: 2
Vitek Vanecek New Jersey Devils consecutive games without overtime: 1
Semyon Varlamov New York Islanders consecutive games without overtime: 1
Sam Montembeault Montréal Canadiens consecutive games without overtime: 1
Darcy Kuemper Washington Capitals consecutive games without overtime: 1
Alex Stalock Chicago Blackhawks consecutive games without overtime: 1
Alex Nedeljkovic Detroit Red Wings consecutive games without overtime: 1
Juuse Saros Nashville Predators consecutive games without overtime: 1
Jacob Markstrom Calgary Flames consecutive games without overtime: 1
Stuart Skinner Edmonton Oilers consecutive games without overtime: 1
Collin Delia Vancouver Canucks consecutive games without overtime: 1
Jonathan Bernier New Jersey Devils consecutive games without overtime: 0
Nico Daws New Jersey Devils consecutive games without overtime: 0
Linus Ullmark Boston Bruins consecutive games without overtime: 0
Anton Forsberg Ottawa Senators consecutive games without overtime: 0
Hunter Shepard Washington Capitals consecutive games without overtime: 0
Dan Vladar Calgary Flames consecutive games without overtime: 0
Olle Eriksson Ek Anaheim Ducks consecutive games without overtime: 0
Scott Wedgewood Dallas Stars consecutive games without overtime: 0
Jonathan Quick Los Angeles Kings consecutive games without overtime: 0
James Reimer San Jose Sharks consecutive games without overtime: 0
Chris Driedger Seattle Kraken consecutive games without overtime: 0
I love the nhl api. 🙂
This was stupid, because the isOT field was just for games lost in OT… This should be better:
Jack Campbell Edmonton Oilers consecutive games without overtime: 14
Sergei Bobrovsky Florida Panthers consecutive games without overtime: 12
Eric Comrie Buffalo Sabres consecutive games without overtime: 11
Casey DeSmith Pittsburgh Penguins consecutive games without overtime: 9
Ilya Samsonov Toronto Maple Leafs consecutive games without overtime: 9
Charlie Lindgren Washington Capitals consecutive games without overtime: 9
Joonas Korpisalo Columbus Blue Jackets consecutive games without overtime: 9
Akira Schmid New Jersey Devils consecutive games without overtime: 8
Ilya Sorokin New York Islanders consecutive games without overtime: 8
Kevin Lankinen Nashville Predators consecutive games without overtime: 8
Mackenzie Blackwood New Jersey Devils consecutive games without overtime: 7
Petr Mrazek Chicago Blackhawks consecutive games without overtime: 7
Anthony Stolarz Anaheim Ducks consecutive games without overtime: 7
Arvid Soderblom Chicago Blackhawks consecutive games without overtime: 6
Jaroslav Halak New York Rangers consecutive games without overtime: 5
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen Buffalo Sabres consecutive games without overtime: 5
Cam Talbot Ottawa Senators consecutive games without overtime: 5
Andrei Vasilevskiy Tampa Bay Lightning consecutive games without overtime: 4
Thomas Greiss St. Louis Blues consecutive games without overtime: 4
Pavel Francouz Colorado Avalanche consecutive games without overtime: 4
Lukas Dostal Anaheim Ducks consecutive games without overtime: 4
Marc-Andre Fleury Minnesota Wild consecutive games without overtime: 4
Logan Thompson Vegas Golden Knights consecutive games without overtime: 4
Philipp Grubauer Seattle Kraken consecutive games without overtime: 4
Felix Sandstrom Philadelphia Flyers consecutive games without overtime: 3
Pyotr Kochetkov Carolina Hurricanes consecutive games without overtime: 3
Spencer Knight Florida Panthers consecutive games without overtime: 3
Kaapo Kahkonen San Jose Sharks consecutive games without overtime: 3
Connor Ingram Arizona Coyotes consecutive games without overtime: 3
Martin Jones Seattle Kraken consecutive games without overtime: 3
Carter Hart Philadelphia Flyers consecutive games without overtime: 2
Tristan Jarry Pittsburgh Penguins consecutive games without overtime: 2
Jeremy Swayman Boston Bruins consecutive games without overtime: 2
Craig Anderson Buffalo Sabres consecutive games without overtime: 2
Jake Allen Montréal Canadiens consecutive games without overtime: 2
Brian Elliott Tampa Bay Lightning consecutive games without overtime: 2
Magnus Hellberg Detroit Red Wings consecutive games without overtime: 2
Ville Husso Detroit Red Wings consecutive games without overtime: 2
Alexandar Georgiev Colorado Avalanche consecutive games without overtime: 2
John Gibson Anaheim Ducks consecutive games without overtime: 2
Jake Oettinger Dallas Stars consecutive games without overtime: 2
Daniil Tarasov Columbus Blue Jackets consecutive games without overtime: 2
Filip Gustavsson Minnesota Wild consecutive games without overtime: 2
David Rittich Winnipeg Jets consecutive games without overtime: 2
Karel Vejmelka Arizona Coyotes consecutive games without overtime: 2
Vitek Vanecek New Jersey Devils consecutive games without overtime: 1
Semyon Varlamov New York Islanders consecutive games without overtime: 1
Igor Shesterkin New York Rangers consecutive games without overtime: 1
Sam Montembeault Montréal Canadiens consecutive games without overtime: 1
Matt Murray Toronto Maple Leafs consecutive games without overtime: 1
Frederik Andersen Carolina Hurricanes consecutive games without overtime: 1
Darcy Kuemper Washington Capitals consecutive games without overtime: 1
Alex Stalock Chicago Blackhawks consecutive games without overtime: 1
Alex Nedeljkovic Detroit Red Wings consecutive games without overtime: 1
Juuse Saros Nashville Predators consecutive games without overtime: 1
Jacob Markstrom Calgary Flames consecutive games without overtime: 1
Stuart Skinner Edmonton Oilers consecutive games without overtime: 1
Thatcher Demko Vancouver Canucks consecutive games without overtime: 1
Spencer Martin Vancouver Canucks consecutive games without overtime: 1
Collin Delia Vancouver Canucks consecutive games without overtime: 1
Elvis Merzlikins Columbus Blue Jackets consecutive games without overtime: 1
Connor Hellebuyck Winnipeg Jets consecutive games without overtime: 1
Adin Hill Vegas Golden Knights consecutive games without overtime: 1
Jonathan Bernier New Jersey Devils consecutive games without overtime: 0
Nico Daws New Jersey Devils consecutive games without overtime: 0
Linus Ullmark Boston Bruins consecutive games without overtime: 0
Anton Forsberg Ottawa Senators consecutive games without overtime: 0
Antti Raanta Carolina Hurricanes consecutive games without overtime: 0
Hunter Shepard Washington Capitals consecutive games without overtime: 0
Jordan Binnington St. Louis Blues consecutive games without overtime: 0
Dan Vladar Calgary Flames consecutive games without overtime: 0
Olle Eriksson Ek Anaheim Ducks consecutive games without overtime: 0
Scott Wedgewood Dallas Stars consecutive games without overtime: 0
Jonathan Quick Los Angeles Kings consecutive games without overtime: 0
Pheonix Copley Los Angeles Kings consecutive games without overtime: 0
James Reimer San Jose Sharks consecutive games without overtime: 0
Chris Driedger Seattle Kraken consecutive games without overtime: 0
Jets incl.OT/SO
Flames-Sharks over 6.5 regulation
I will be tailing the Jets race to 3 as i can get down at +175 (36.6 percent).
Looking at the pricing the bookies seem to think the jets will struggle to score. But in that case they should be heavier dogs I would think. So even if it doesn’t pan out still value in the play at such low odds. I know you mentioned the Jets team total was trash odds lol…but when i was handicapping yesterday i actually thought they were quite low. Compared to the plus money on race to 3 they are though so I now understand it.
They have the Jets at -145 to score over 2.5 and the Kraken priced at a whopping -225. Seattle priced 10 percent higher to get there at about 69 percent. And the lower game total of 6 shaded to the over and it seems like they clearly think it’ll be the Jets who will struggle to score. But then Jets priced at +135 (42.5 percent) on the road to win outright?
It’s funny we both were on Rangers race to 3 and I ultimately decided to pass as well. Seeing the -230 price for Rangers money line, and -140 on the race to 3, I thought it’d be a great way to get value on what should be a heavy favorite. And admittedly it still might. I’ve avoided the Rangers recently because when looking at their advanced 5 on 5 metrics over the last 10 or so games, they’ve lost most of those categories. Getting wins in all those games, I thought the luck would sort of balance out soon. I do realize special teams play a huge part and factor that as well, but like to use 5 on 5 to see how well teams perform when all things are equal. This was before the Philly game so obviously they came away positive in that one which doesn’t help my case so much. Also all those teams are way better competition then the Blackhawks. So while the Rangers may regress a bit results wise vs top teams that won’t factor here. Even looking at the Blackhawks win over the Rangers, Chicago was throughly dominated in 5 vs 5 play. Three powerplay goals and an empty netter will be tough to repeat. I didn’t play it yesterday because I wanted to see who the Blackhawks goalie would be. I wanted Mrazek to be confirmed and I would have fired. When I saw Soderblom I was so disappointed it took me off the pick. But now that I’ve wrote it all out, I do think -140 is still cheap and have talked myself back into it. Still aware of a flat spot, the road back to back, and some possible luck regression. The Rangers schedule ahead is much tougher, they need every point they can get, and should have at least some sort of revenge in mind. Can’t not score 3 goals against the Blackhawks twice in one month…lol…right?
Also my main lean was Carolina -125. However now that I’ve talked myself into The Rangers play and tailing your Jets play I can layoff this one. It looks like Malkin will play and Carolina without Aho is tough. Even though they’ve managed to win their recent games without him. Kochetkov has been impressive in net. But looking at DeSmiths advanced stats and I think his record doesn’t do him justice for how well he’s performed. Both teams in good form, my thinking last night was Carolina was priced slightly too low but now I’m not so sure.
Winnipeg Jets race to three goals +175
New York Rangers race to three goals -140