Written by Graeme on Friday, December 1st, 2017
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Well the Nashville Predators can go die in a freaking fire.
I should’ve known better. I really should have. Worse was the way they teased us by making it look like they might just pick up the W.
Never again will I tip or bet anything to do with the Nashville Predators. To blow a lead in such a fashion in the 3rd? What a joke.
Oh well. The Flames salvaged the night somewhat by winning in regulation for 1-1. If you followed our personal leans of the Wild -1.5(thanks Eric Staal!) and the Leafs/Oilers over then it was a great night for you. That Oilers/Leafs game would have been a unanimous pick if we knew Brossoit was in. Unfortunately that news was released a couple of hours after the tips posted.
And if you were on the OHL tips as well, it was an even sicker night as I went 2-0 with them for 1.94 units!
Props to the Knights for that fighting performance however. They just wouldn’t go down and that was a really tight one.
We turn our attention to December now, and we’re hoping for a good month. We’ve got 8 games to kickstart the month today.
The Jackets take on the Ducks with both teams hoping to get a winning streak going on. The Senators look to stop their losing streak at 7 as they visit the Islanders. The Knights nave no rest as they take on a feisty Winnipeg Jets team.
Best odds for our picks today are at 888 Sports. If you’re not American they’re a sportsbook you really should have an account at. They’re really stepping it up lately with the best odds.
Let’s get to it:
Jets vs Knights Betting Tips:
These two played on November 10th, with the Knights running out 5-2 winners.
However the Jets have proven this season they are a strong bounce back team, and are coming into this one off a loss. They are an excellent home team and this is a tough period for the Knights. They’re still very hard workers but the heads are going to go down somewhat.
That loss the Jets had against the Avs was a very frustrating one for them and I expect a much better performance from them tonight.
Jets in Regulation
Canada: 1.95 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -120 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2017/12/01 12:06:47 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Devils vs Avalanche Betting Tips:
The Avs rallied missing Landeskog after he was suspended against the Jets however it’s common to see a team do that when they lose a key player in the first game.
We’re hoping that won’t be the case here.
Devils come into this with Vatanen making his debut to bolster their defense. They lost Henrique and Blandisi for him but it seems like a good move.
Honestly if it wasn’t for the Landeskog suspension and the trade we’d probably skip this one. However it just swings the Devils into the right direction for us. They’ve bolstered their defense which is something they really needed this season, while the Avs have lost a guy averaging almost a point a game.
Devils road form is also enough for us. With the amount of times these two teams go to overtime we’ll cover our bases here.
Devils incl OT/SO
Canada: 1.96 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -108 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.96 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2017/12/01 12:06:47 PM EST but are subject to change.)
OHL / WHL / AHL / KHL Betting Tips:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. )
OHL Betting Tips (15-5, +10.31u): Hamilton Bulldogs & Sarnia Sting in regulation – double at 2.00 odds.
WHL Betting Tips (11-11, -1.67u): Spokane Chiefs incl OT/SO at 1.71 odds.
AHL Betting Tips (7-9, -2.15u): System sorta likes Texas Stars tonight. They’re big dogs though but if you want a risky bet Stars in reg at 3.00 is a possibility. Picks are Rochester in reg 1.65 and Ontario in reg 1.95.
OHL, WHL & AHL & KHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
What’s about Pens Sabres going over 5.5 tonight? Jarry + Sabres missing some of their goals due to 2 last games they made 70 shots and get 0 goals from them…
It’s extremely rare for a team to get shutout twice in a row. However when I looked at historical data for that trend it didn’t appeal to me. I’d like to think they can bounce back tonight but their offense has been disappointing all season so there wasn’t enough for me to go with that.
Yeap, mostly not just becuase of being shutout twice they are being last right now. But lets see how they will react, Jarry giving a chance, and MalkinG on opposite as well 🙂
Looks like Malkin is returning
Where this shit Sabres came from ) 3 times shutout (
with Pens ML -140, I think you have to look at that bet hard. Sure, Sabes could play game of their lives but their previous performance this season doesn’t suggest that.
@Graeme Talbot was announced to be injured vs Yotes. So Brossoit would play for sure. Picked Leafs on the night before the game.
Jets in reg @ 2.00
Sabres 1P ML @ 2.21
LAKins ML @ 2.54
GLTA
Ah thanks. Not sure how I missed that one then. I must have just saw Talbot listed somewhere and assumed he was in net.
You’re welcome. Anyway Talbot has been pretty too 🙂
LA Kings ML went up to 2.80! Can you imagine it?! So #%^*+ juice!!!
And guys, Devils are for real this season!! I stayed away this time cuz it was a real though test and they pass it with plus evaluation!
2-0 last night.
Picks today: Devils ML
Yeah, on Graeme with the Preds jumping in the fire, with the Blues messing around the night before they can go with them. I also should have listened to instinct and stuck to my ‘no Caps’ rule with the Capitals surrendering 2 leads, allowing 2 goals in 9 seconds and then getting squashed. It wasn’t a great night for me going 1-2 with only the Leafs winning. Unfortunately for me, I parlayed the Leafs with Caps and Preds… Anyway today is a new day-
Islanders ML/Reg – This is probably a reg win, the islanders are still scoring at a crazy rate, are so good at home and come up an awful senators team. The Senators have managed just 9 goals in their last 7 games. The Islanders kept them to just 1 goal the other day, and I see NYI taking the game again today.
Rangers ML/Reg- I will highly advise ML just because this Rangers side has had a habit of going down early in games lately, before trying to mount a comeback. The Rangers managed comebacks against the wings and Canucks but fell to the Panthers. I have bad luck betting against the Canes, but this Rangers side dominated them a week back and haven’t lost at home to the Canes since 2011.
San Jose Sharks ML- The Sharks are rolling on the road and their defence continues to put up good numbers. The Panthers have managed two wins in a row for only the second time this season, but I don’t think they make it 3. The Sharks are being offered as underdogs, and considering this sharks side have only lost 2 of their last 7 on the road this is a good spot to back them as dogs.
Jets ML- No point over analysing this, Vegas struggle on the road and Jets have only lost twice at home all season.
Leans- Penguins, Jackets, Avalanche, Blues
What do you think of Pens at -140? Rookie goalie in net but he’s performed well so far. Seems like a sure thing to me. What am I missing?
Penguins just scare me as they’ve not posted 3 wins a row once this season yet. They’re also 2-8 on the road, and after seeing Sabres beat the Caps 3-1 At home (which I thought was a sure bet) I just have a bad feeling about this. In their last 10 games on the road only 4 times have the penguins managed to score more than 2 goals… I haven’t seen enough from the pens to take them.
I got burned that game too, but betting against Sabres is still the way to go.
I don’t disagree that their road form is awful. 5-10 on road, not 2-8 by the way. But my point is this: even though they are unpredictable and their road game is bad, they are playing either the worst or second to worst team in the league and they are the Stanley Cup champs, both of which tip things heavily in their favor.
I agree with the bet on Sharks, but they haven’t exactly been rolling on the road at 5-5 and they are 1-4 in last 5 games. However, even when banged up they are a proud team that can pull out a win against anyone.
Yes, but in their last 5 on the road they’re 4-1, and they’ve only lost 3 away games this season. I just think the Panthers will lucky to win against the Rangers. Sharks don’t have that same kind of slow start defensive fragility, and that will win out here.
Islanders in regulation is my only bet. Also like Jets and Bruins.
looks like Isles might be coasting tonight
Thanks SanDiegoBruins, they were indeed, seems they did not want to win and not enough motivated.
Good i still took Penguins after.
-1.5 units again.
Tonight:
Rangers, Sharks, Blues and Devils with one unit;
Kreider, Schwartz and Gibbons with half unit.
I like jets-knights going over5,5 and/or Islanders win. Any thoughts?
I have seen some guys on the Senators but I can’t see nothing that leads me to pickem
@Graeme @Scott What am I missing with the Pens-Sabres odds tonight? Pens are only at -140. Granted they’ve had an up and down season but Malkin is due back according to their beat writer and Jarry has performed pretty well (only gave up 2 against TBL). This seems like a gift from the odds makers. Your thoughts?
There are just enough questions surrounding the Pens and their performances at the moment, particularly on the road, to keep us from advising it. In saying that I do believe it has value and the Pens offense is clicking at the moment.
However I think you’re setting a nice example of unit management. You obviously absolutely love this pick yet are restricted to 5 units. Always love to see that because win or lose it shows solid bankroll management and restricts you from losing too much on a bet you love.
thanks Graeme
so far, so good
@SanDiegoBruins:disqus check out my picks above and let me know your thoughts!
Happy Friday. So far it’s been a bad week for me betting wise. Favorites have shit the bed in a couple of places (Blues and Jets, you SUCK!)
Pens ML -140 (5 units) – To me this seems like a gift from the oddsmakers and I’m jumping on it. If the Sabres pull a horseshoe out of their asses good on them, but I just don’t see that happening. Sabres are 3-9 at home, 6-19 on the season, 2-7 on two days rest, 2-15 revenging a loss vs opponent and are 1-7 after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game. Lehner was 3-7-1 with .301 GAA in November. Oh yeah, they haven’t scored in two full games. I’ll grant you that Pens are a terrible road team, but they are well rested, playing close to home and hopefully will not make the same mistake they did when they played Buffalo on Nov 14 by taking their opponent lightly. This game will not go to OT and Pens will win by 2+ goals. I also have a one unit bet on Pens PL.
Rangers ML – Canes are pesky but Rangers have been surging lately with exception of last game. Hank got pulled so count on him to have a very strong game tonight. And, if he brings his “A” game the team generally follows. Rangers have a terrible record against the division and they know they need a W here. They are well rested, are a good bounce back team and are tough against weaker teams. Canes have been very leaky and I don’t see that changing tonight against a motivated Rangers team. One unit on over as well.
LVK-Jets over – last time these guys played it went over and both teams have the ability to put a lot of rubber in the net.
Sharks ML – this game could go either way but I’m counting on Sharks to build on momentum from the win over Flyers. They are well rested, playing in the same time zone and will be ready to go. Dell is in net but he’s no slouch. Sharks have been putting up decent numbers while Cats have trouble scoring.
Ducks ML – small bet on Ducks because of heavy odds on CBJ. Even with Getzlaf out Ducks can be formidable, as Blues found out a couple of days ago.
GLTA SDB
3-0 up good call man! Was half tempted to follow!
thanks! I made a sizable bet for me so I’m feeling a little less nervous.
To WIN: Columbus and New Jersey
OVER: Islanders and Rangers
UNDER: Columbus
Just can’t feel confident betting against Vegas. Pittsburgh against a bottom-feeder team is when Pittsburgh (and on the road!) can’t be trusted to win or to take it Over, while Buffalo will have the daggers out to thrash the Penguins (so often this setup is an underdog win!).
re: Pens – I generally agree with you in respect to a dog upsetting a top tier team, but these teams recently played with Pens winning in OT and I don’t think Pens will take Sabres lightly this time around. Plus, Malkin is back in the line-up and that has to help Pens offence. Let’s hope I’m right, I made a sizable bet (for me) on this game.
Bet is risk. I like Penguins here, the odd could be higher, but think they will win it in regulation, – single bet here as well.
Looking good so far
Jackets ML and Reg- CBJ has been winning but not playing all that great as of late and as a result should be focused. They have the best goalie in the league returning to the net after getting the night off against the Canes and have their #1 center returning to the lineup in Wennberg after a lengthy absence. He will really help their powerplay and should give them the offensive punch they’ve been missing. The Ducks meanwhile are off a fluke win in STL where every chance they got turned into a goal and Gibson absolutely stood on his head. How many times do you see Tarasenko hit the cross bar on a wide open net or both he and Schenn go through a game with a shot on goal combined? This has CBJ blowout written all over it!
Jets ML and Reg- The Jets are off a loss and I love backing good teams off losses, especially when it comes to a subpar team. The Jets are also 5-0 after a loss and have played great hockey at home this season. The inevitable regression has begin to hit Vegas and with a few injuries now hitting their club, including top line winger Perron, they don’t have the depth to survive that. Let’s not forget this is also a revenge spot for the Jets after no showing in Vegas and getting slammed 5-2 a few weeks ago.
I also lean to the Isles to score and score a lot against the Sens who are struggling mightily and going into a building that opposing teams tend to struggle.
Thoughts?! Let me know
I think the Jets win tonight but ML has no value. Regulation sure.
Same with CBJ. I actually like this better because Duck’s bench is absolutely depleted
Isles is a strong bet tonight. Good value in regulation.
here’s a parlay for you:
CBJ PL + Jets PL + Isles ML
I would be parlaying ML of Jets and Jackets!
I like that parlay too. Might go small on that one
Korpisalo going for some reason instead of Bobrovsky…still thinking Jackets with how depleted ANA is and off a win
Over 5.5 blues
Under 5.5 Ducks
Florida Reg
Good luck everyone!
LOL the Nashville thing was hilarious. As I watched them drop that game I knew you will say you will never bet on them again. Probably a good call!
add them to the list:
Caps
Blackhawks
Preds
anyone take over in Sens – Isles? looking pretty good LOL
We really wanted to but got burned on it last time with that 2-1 game and were naturally wary. I have a small bet on the Sens to win as I think they’re turning the tide after the last couple games.
Sens got a lucky bounce at the end, let’s see if they can build on that. I think we just have to ride the over for the Isles, they are explosive