Written by Graeme on Wednesday, December 20th, 2017
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The Vegas Knights win again and help us to another winning night!
What a team they are. Top of the West and 2nd in the overall standings and they just beat the Tampa Bay Lightning in regulation. Unreal.
Pretty sure I’m going to be blindly tipping the Capitals against them on Saturday though. That game is more about Washington for me – with everything the Knights are doing especially at home, it just seems like a perfect moment for the Capitals to flex their muscles and show what they’re capable of. Similar to when I tipped them over the Bruins last week.
It’s a quiet day today with only a few games so I wanted to talk about some changes to the tips over the next few weeks.
I’m off to Scotland over Christmas for a couple of weeks so that along with the time difference will interrupt discussion between me and Scott. We’ll basically just have to chat whenever the hell we can.
We alternate days of course however there may be some issues where the odds aren’t out yet on one of my days and I’ll be out of the house early. So I may just have to guess the odds and do a “If the odds are above 1.70, bet _____” deal. Similar to any potential injuries or goalie lineups etc.
So anyway you shouldn’t see too much from your end but just wanted to give a quick heads up about that and a note that our discussions won’t be as detailed.
We’ll also be starting unit betting when I’m back in January. Looking forward to that as it should allow us to maximize profits and get a bigger variety of bets going.
Blues vs Flames Betting Tips:
It really sounds like Yeo has did his scouting of the Flames for this one. Calgary are a tricky team and they’ve got some good things working out for them at the moment, but their home form has been extremely poor.
We were debating whether to go with the Blues win at their nice underdog price or the over 5.5 but have decided on Over 5.5.
Looking at past games the Blues have went out with the same mentality as they seem to be doing tonight and that’s resulted in a lot of high scoring games.
It’s a bit risky based on both teams recent performances of course but we think this one can go over.
Canada: 2.05 Odds at BetOnline..
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at BetOnline..
(Odds correct as of 2017/12/20 11:05:04 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Other Game Thoughts:
Leafs vs Jackets: The one big question is if the Leafs are a team that can carry momentum and really the answer is no. Not a definite “no” but yesterday was a special game. When you look at Leafs thumping the Habs 6-0 in Montreal then 2 days later losing 4-1 at home to the Coyotes you just can’t back them on momentum. They’ve only won 2 games in a row in regulation 4 times this season, and the 2nd leg of a good few of those were very tighht.
The Jackets are really struggling at the moment and just aren’t a team we can back given the odds. We’d have to take them in regulation and we just don’t trust them there so no bet.
Flyers vs Red Wings: I like the Flyers to get back to their winning ways here but the Wings have been pretty solid with points in their last 4 games. It’d have to be in regulation and I’m a bit worried about the Flyers losing confidence after their winning streak ended. We see streaky teams all the time and if they lose here we could see another prolonged losing streak for them. That may make them desperate which isn’t a good thing when looking to back a team at such high odds.
+3.5u last night.
Tonight:
Leafs, Red Wings and Flames with 1u;
Leafs with 5u.
S&G, another great night for you guys, you’re killing it this season. I also had a profitable night, that’s two in a row which brings me even from last week.
How amazing was that game between the Bolts and Knights? I have been a fan of hockey for my entire life and I’ve never enjoyed watching it on TV so much as now. The speed and skill is amazing and without the interference, hooking and fighting the games are fast and fun with high scoring. I’d be perfectly fine if I never saw another hockey fight. I know that’s blasphemy in some places but to me the game is about skill and teamwork and not about getting or giving concussions. In case you missed it, the game was back and forth until the Knights sealed it with a blast from the point with 2.3 left on the clock. Both teams left it all out there and for today the Knights are the best in the league. Amazing how a bunch of misfits and castoffs have become such a powerhouse. Just goes to show what good coaching can do.
Onto today…
Slim pickings with no sharp bets IMHO. I don’t like the TML to follow up the high of yesterday with enough effort to beat CBJ who are going to be gunning for a W after losing 3 of last 4. The odds aren’t good enough for me to back CBJ and they’ve had their own troubles so I’m going with the over here for low units. Both these teams have plenty of firepower and with both teams playing their back-up goalies I’m hoping it’s a high scoring affair.
I like the under in both of the other games. With Wings and Flyers both teams are scoring 2.6 pg in last. I worry about their ability to stop scoring but the O/U is 6-3-1 in combined last 5 for both teams. Combined O/U for combined last 5 for the Flames and Blues is 8-2 so that feels like a bet with high confidence. Sorry S&G gotta go against you on this one.
GLTA SDB
@Graeme – enjoy Scotland. I live in Edinburgh, but I’m off to Cape Town for Christmas tomorrow. For the rest of you that may mean I am be unable to post my tips for tomorrow. I may consider posting them later below this post for those of you who would like me to.
I played pretty heavy on Preds and Bruins yesterday, and unfortunately the Jets put up a hell of a fight. I tipped Rangers in reg, but accidentally ended up betting Islanders- I really don’t think I was watching what I was doing. Bruins helped mitigate the loss, but due to accidentally taking islanders not rangers it was a losing night for me. Hopefully those of you that follow me didn’t make the same mistake and would have gone 2-1 with my original tips. I tipped Islanders and Bolts but said I would not be playing them and advised any of you who were to play them small. Tonight hopefully I can recover yesterday’s Preds mishap.
Blues ML (80%) – I’m jumping on this – Blues are simply the better team and are good on the road. Calgary are a miserable 2-5 their last 7 at home, and those wins came against the Coyotes and Canucks which isn’t saying much. St Louis is 4-3 in their last 7 on the road including a loss to Calgary already. Losing to the Wild and and Jets is fairly forgivable as both sides have a lot of spunk. St Louis has generally had success in Calgary- winning of the last 6 here and after being shutout by the Jets, and having lost to the Flames already once this season will be out for revenge. It is really hard to beat a good team twice in a season, and that was shown in the Preds loss to the Jets tonight. The blues are the better team on paper and on the ice, and have only lost back to back road games once this season. The Central is extremely tight and the Blues won’t want to drop another game. I will happily take the better team as a road underdog.
For now I have no further tips- today is a hard card, but if anything pops out to me later I will add it here. I am considering Detroit as another Dog as the odds are great, but I question their ability to sustain the sort of performance they managed last night.
Edinburgh is one of my favorite cities. In fact, I met my wife there and our son’s middle name, Graeme, is a nod to that happy meeting. One of my friends from San Diego is Mark Reynolds and he owns a barbershop called Revolution Barber in Kirkcaldy, Fife. If you get a chance check him out and tell him Aron from San Diego sent you. He’ll get a kick out of it.
Sorry about your misclicks yesterday, those are painful, but we’ve all done them. If you notice them in time you can make an opposing bet to mitigate things.
Did you see any of the Bolts Knights game? Wow!
I had a little on the Preds and Bolts but not enough to offset what I won on Bs win and over on the Bolts Knights game. I was very confident with those two bets.
I’m going to tail you on the Blues bet. You put much more thought into it than I did and it’s pretty convincing.
Good luck to us.
Safe travels and don’t spend too much time looking at screens.
Cheers, SDB
What a small world…. Yeah I’m from Zimbabwe but go to uni here. Yeah shit happens, hopefully Blues will help me out tonight.
Good call on the unders SDB, if you wouldn’t mind posting the following for me for tonights tips (as I will be on a plane) that would be great-
Wow Blues have a super stagnant offense without Schwartz at the moment- bad call. A bit of bad run at the moment, with two losing nights in a row. Hopefully tonight I can turn that around and get off my plane to see some money in the bank-
POTD- Preds Reg (85%) – Yes I got burned by the Preds backing them against the Jets, but this team has been good to me lately and with the way they’re playing it’s only a matter of time before they’re putting money back in my wallet. Tonight I think is the night- and I don’t just say that because I like the Preds. This Preds side put up a serious fight versus the Jets and it could easily have been them winning that game. Every game I’ve watched lately the Preds have come to play and play hard. The Canes? Not so much. If the Canes can get butchered 8-1 by a Toronto offence that has no Matthews and has struggled to get a goal lately what can this Preds side do. The Canes are in the worst 5 teams in the NHL in allowing goals whilst the Preds are in the top 5 in terms of goals scored per Game. The Preds are also in a revenge spot here having lost to the Canes a few weeks back in Carolina. I don’t expect this Carolina side in the form their in to do very much tonight, and certainly not enough to beat this Preds team right now. Considering the Canes have only won 2 of their last 7 in Nashville I don’t think they’ll have much luck against a team that looks ready for the Stanley Cup final again this year. ML holds little value, but I don’t expect the Preds will let this game go to overtime again tonight..
Tampa Reg (85%) – Ottawa come into this game having collapsed against the Wild after a solid start. As has often been the case with Ottawa this season- if the offence doesn’t do enough to outscore the opposition they’ll lose. Simply put, the offence has been able to do that very much. Ottawa is just so bad, on all fronts- goaltenders can’t keep a baseball out, defence can’t even see the puck and the offence struggles to do anything unless Karlsson decides to show up. Tampa needs no introduction- they’re electric. If they’re not winning games they go down with a fight, and that’s on the infrequent occasion they do lose. Their offense is consistently putting the puck in the net, and very few teams can meet their firepower. I just don’t see the best team in the league dropping the ball at home to one of the absolute worst teams in the league. Tampa should be fired up after their tight loss to Vegas, and will be out tonight to put the hurt on Ottawa. Look to see Tampa make it 5-1 in their favour in Ottawa’s last 6 visits.
**Considering Play*** – Oilers ML- I bet the Blues last night but I’m considering jumping over the Oilers tonight. Why? Because St Louis has some how lost the ability to find the net. Is the team missing Schwartz that much or is this just a cold streak. Either way 4 goals in their last 5 games is fairly concerning. The Oilers on the other hand look pretty positive right and are shooting the puck fearlessly. Talbot seems to have added some wind to the sails of the Oilers, and they may be turning a corner. At the time of writing this I am only considering play this. The Blues have dominated the Oilers over the years and walloped them 8-3 earlier this season. The Blues surely can’t keep missing the net, and with the Oilers it’s always a question of what team turns up. Alternatively some of you may find the value on the Blues attractive. If you want to play this you’ll have to make up your own mind and do some research- it’s more a lean now than anything else.
done. safe travels. My email is aronws
@ gmail. first name is Aron
2/4 last night that lead to a little loss, my first since i joined the forum, but hey, you win some and you lose some.
I’m going on Christmas vacation to New York tomorrow, so this will be my last post this year – let’s end it of with a bang!
OT and SDB convinced me with both the Blues and the over in Jackets – Leafs, so going with those two picks and the odds on Flyers are way too low, so i’m betting the Red Wings tonight.
Blue Jackets – Leafs Over 5,5
Red Wings ML
Blues ML
As always i’m open for feedback and good luck to everyone, and Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year out there, see you in 2018!
Good luck man enjoy NY!
Thanks dude, I guess we all gotta let the stress go for a week or two haha, but enjoy South Africa! Been to both Cape Town and Johannesburg back in 2010 for the soccer world championship and i can’t name one bad thing – beautiful country!
Haven’t seen the crime then hahaha!
hey guys nice to meet you all. i am new here but i am following the NHL pretty much. 3 days ago i hit the bets. 6 games and i won everyone of them 🙂 i hope i will have fun and make so profit :). btw i am form Slovenia same national like Anze Kopiter 🙂 if you didn’t know where is the country. i bet on Slovenian bet site and on Bet365
Hey Graeme and Scott,
Few days ago you wrote about 888sport promotion that boost your profits. It sounded great but…I checked 888sport promotions and I didnt find it there. Can you please share a link?
Thanks and thanks for your write ups
It was Oliver that had commented on it in here. I haven’t had the chance to check if it excludes any specific countries or anything yet but here’s the details of their “profit boost token”:
https://www.888sport.com/online-sports-betting-promotions/pbt.htm
aghh, I hope it includes European countries, thanks, I will checki t
It does- I am in the UK. Just message their live chat and they should apply the boost if it doesn’t apply automatically.
Like Flames tonight, single bet.
4 on 7 last night +2u . Not bad
Tonight bet
– Blues ML
– Blues vs Flames Over
– Detroit ML
– Leafs vs Bluejackets Over
– Blues Win 3rd Period ( im trying this , they scored a lot of there goal in 3rd period and are a talented team that never gives up )
– Leafs win 1st Period ( feel like they will bring the momentum from there last game to at least the first period and they are placed first for goals in first )
Here my tips for tonight,
Leafs win %50
Flyers win
Flames win
Good luck everyone.
I love you Flames! Everyone of you are amazingly good.
Tonight only one tip:
Blues ML
Good luck to all!
Blues reg and ml today like the most of you!
Gl everybody.
Ps. I have a question for you guys, who do you think has the most chance to win the stanley cup this year? Or is it hard to tell at this time because som teams play better in play-offs and others like caps most of the time better in reg season, I’m just curious.
Morning everyone’
+7,45 units as of yesterday, I will be tracking units starting with the system. I think it will add some weight on anything that I tip in.
VPOTD (value pick of the day): Maple Leafs ml @2.20 for 5 units
McElhinney (3-3-0,2.55,0.921,1) vs Korpisalo (3-3-0,2.97,0.903,0)
TML offensive stats:
6th GF/GP and CLB 22nd
5th PP and CLB is very last, so 31st
4th S% while CLB 27th
11th FO% while CLB 28th
Matthews’ out but Bobrovsky NOT playing and Werenski NOT playing. It is definitly also my POTD.
DET vs PHI draw @4.10, 1 unit and DET ml @2.43 2 units
Actually I love this game as it looks a good matchup for U’ bets.
Everyone should AVOID STL vs CGY to save money.
Hutton: (5-2-0, 1.63, 0.949, 1)
Smith: (13-11-3, 2.61, 0.918, 2)
I would not bet anything but the draw @3.90 half unit.
GLTA, cheers
Columbus ML
Flames vs Blues over 5.5
Good luck everyone!
Over 5,5 on all 3 games
Blues Win
Philadelphia Win
Jackets Win
Over 5,5 on all 3 games
Blues Win
Philadelphia Win
Jackets Win