Written by Graeme on Friday, December 20th, 2024
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Welcome to quite a busy Friday in the NHL. We’ve got a few jam-packed days prior to the brief holiday break it seems, and we’ve got 7 games on the go today.
Man – I cannot feel arsed doing anything today. Slept in “late” and that always throws me off. Just had a crappy sleep.
If my write-ups seem a bit half-arsed today that is why.
Let’s get to it:
Capitals vs Hurricanes
Caps lost two on the trot, and the Canes have strung together two wins for the first time this month. By the metrics, the Caps are decent value here actually. But I am a bit concerned about the Caps little offensive funk at the moment. No play, but by the data a Caps bet is probably fine.
Red Wings vs Canadiens
Detroit with two wins in a row as they host the Canadiens. Montreal coming off that big win over Buffalo. Play would have to be Red Wings in regulation. Man it’s pretty close to a play looking at the data. If the Red Wings continue their offensive output it’s an easy one for them, and with the Habs xGA/GA it seems probable.
Yeah gotta go with it and just hope their forwards continue to perform. This is a good spot to build on the last two games. Wings in Regulation
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/20 11:34:35 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Blues
Data isn’t there for the handicap bet.
Sabres vs Leafs
Nothing here. The two just recently played. By the data the Leafs do the biz again but meh.
Stars vs Rangers
Bleh. I really don’t want to back the Stars here especially at the odds and how their form is – but man, the data says yep for the most part. CF% about the same, slight FF% advantage. Rangers might get the boost with Panarin back.
Eh. While I’m not a big fan of it, the data does dictate Stars in Regulation.
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -120 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/20 11:34:35 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Utah
Nothing here. Data actually leans more Utahs way but not a spot I want to back them.
Ducks vs Avs
Not backing the Avs -1.5 on the road.
Dallas -165
I bet this immediately when it opened. It has climbed significantly, so that doesn’t really benefit anyone. I only included it to speak about the Rangers struggles. It feels like the team has checked out. Could they turn it around. Sure. But I did feel like the season could potentially spiral and it’s feeling more and more like that’s the case. I do believe they overachieved last year which has added to unrealistic expectations on this season as well. They were heavily carried by the Power Play last year. Their 5 on 5 numbers and advanced stats however didn’t really back up the results they were getting. Zibanejad and Trocheck are extremely streaky and both have yet to get going this season. The defense has been sloppy and provides next to nothing offensively. Getting shutout by a Nashville team that’s been leaking goals is alarming. Nashville proceeded to give up 5 to Pittsburgh very next game. I think the players hate the GM Chris Drury. I see a potential mutiny where the players sort of say if you’re trying to get rid of us we’ll try and get rid of you. Every story since the off season has been him actively trying to shop everyone. And every report is he’s still not done. Don’t know how the players focus with that hanging over all their heads. Or how they give a shit if their days are numbered. Also this could lead to more potential game time scratches similar to Kaako as they prepare to finalize deals. I could also point to all Dallas positives like their home record, but why even fucking bother? Gimme Dallas and if it loses so be it.
Buffalo +138
I priced Toronto -155. So taking Buffalo at this price isn’t the greatest. However I don’t think the line will get there. Buffalo has put up some solid xGF numbers at Home. Add to that Toronto doesn’t always show up and perform on the road the same as they do at Home. Toronto is 6-6-2 on the road and 14-4-0 at Home. Toronto has a Home game vs the Islanders Saturday. Yes they have the talent to sweep the back to back, but if they were to punt on one of the two games, it seems like this one at Buffalo could be the one. Add to that a potential look ahead to an afternoon game vs Winnipeg on Monday to close out before the holiday break. Buffalo finishes with tough road games vs Boston and Islanders. They have lost 11 in a row, and should be highly motivated to get a win in front of their fans. The spot feels more important to a desperate Buffalo team, who for all their struggles, still doesn’t feel like they should be in last place in a division that has Montreal and Detroit.
Other thoughts
Detroit -155
So far a lean. I’m not really eager to take the Red Wings with their offensive struggles. They have done better three of the last four games though. Montreal seems to have some spark with Laine back. I’m not fooling myself thinking they’ll go on a tear, but they could still get the shock upset win here and there. Also they’ve won every game Laine has scored a goal in so far. So there’s that. Having said that, Montreal has played 13 road games so far. Their record is 3-9-1. More alarming is they’ve allowed 3 or more goals in every road game. 9 of the 13 has seen them allow at least 4. I feel like there might be a better way to play this game with a Detroit team total. But I still don’t know if I can trust the Wings.
Three underdogs I wanted to play but couldn’t quite get there. With that said I wouldn’t feel too confident taking the other side even if these favorites ultimately come through.
Anaheim +185
I would still need at least +200 to consider a play on the Ducks. Even then I’d have to ask myself why risk it? Colorado has had some low xGF numbers on the road. However with the offensive talent they have I would give them more leeway. Also Anaheim xGA at Home has been quite high. And Anaheim actual goals against are in line with the expected goals against as well. Ducks have allowed 3 or more goals against in 12 of the 16 games played at Home. I originally considered the Ducks as a potential upset because they’ve been able to create some decent offensive chances at Home. However they are still struggling to convert those chances. Add to that the Ducks defensive struggles vs a Colorado team that doesn’t always need a ton of chances to convert. The more I look at this, the more I could see a comfortable Avs win. As long as Colorado doesn’t sleepwalk through this game. And they really shouldn’t seeing how they are in fourth place and trying to hold off a Utah team with three games in hand. So Avs need the points.
Utah +120
Speaking of Utah. I’m not a big believer in this Utah team and am still of the belief they’ve overachieved a bit. With that said I can’t deny the recent success they’ve had. They’ve won three straight and are 7-1-2 over their last ten games. They are also a solid 10-6-2 on the road. They’ve scored 3 or more goals in six straight games. They are facing a Wild team not at their best right now. Gustavsson has missed a few games but could potentially return either for this game or the Saturday matchup vs Winnipeg. If he isn’t ready to go, Utah could get a much more favorable matchup vs Fleury or Jesper Wallstedt. Eriksson Ek injury also hampers the Wilds offensive depth. I was way off on this line as I made Minnesota a -195 favorite and they opened at -148. Like I said I’m not high on Utah, however the last time I updated my Power Rankings was December 10th. So I plan on updating them again after Fridays games and before the Saturday slate when I have time. I typically try to go every other Sunday so I don’t over react to a few results. However, it might be overdue especially with a decent amount of games from Saturday to Monday before the holiday break. This is still a stay away for me personally as I feel Utah is too low, but can’t argue that this is a Minnesota team that’s currently not at its best. This would be Utah or pass for me, whereas I’d typically jump on Minnesota at the lower line.
Washington +122
Washington as a home underdog and climbing. I feel like the wrong team is favored here. Especially with Carolina being about a .500 team on the road. Carolina is still always tough to bet against, and I would need Washington to move higher to consider this a play. Wouldn’t be shocked by a Caps win. Rarely do you see a team in second place in the East(1 point behind first with 4 less games played) priced as a home underdog. I think they deserve a little more respect than that.
Recap
Dallas -165 (which is no longer available)
Buffalo +138