Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 21st, 2024
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A disappointing 0-2 last night.
What one really got to me was that Canes/Capitals game. I really did like the Caps there but as I said – just concerned about their offensive output. Would have been a nice little dog play as they picked up a relatively easy win.
I was slightly concerned about the Red Wings offensive output. They delivered – unfortunately, their defending and goaltending took the night off. The big story was power plays in there as well, with the Habs taking full advantage while the Wings were 0 and 4.
And I mean – what can you do about that Stars game? Started strong. xG of 6.47 to 2.51. Another team who could not take advantage of the PP, and they had a ridiculous amount. Very frustrating one that.
In conclusion – fuck power plays.
Let’s get onto Saturday:
Predators vs Kings
Neither are really jumping out at me. Kings a slight lean but this extended road trip feels like might be pushing my luck a little bit on that one. If you’re looking for a bet in the early game I’d go for them though I think.
Flames vs Blackhawks
Nothing jumping out in this one. Probably some value on the Blackhawks at those odds – this seems a bit more of a coinflip – but not a team I’m up for backing here.
Oilers vs Sharks
Data doesnt support Oilers -2.5. Not seeing enough to go with the over.
Bruins vs Sabres
Bruins definitely should take this one in regulation – I think. Not too many regulation wins lately. Better CF% & FF%. Scoring more, conceding less. xG stats match up.
Boston turned their road trip around a fair bit and should come back here feeling pretty good.
Should be enough to go with Bruins in Regulation and pray to the power play gods.
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -110 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/21 11:29:46 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flyers vs Blue Jackets
Slight lean on Flyers, odds seem about right.
Canadiens vs Red Wings
Just played last night, VERY HAPPY TO PASS ON.
Jets vs Wild
I was hoping the Jets data would be strong for them to get an in regulation win here, but it really isn’t. Just their xGA is still so pitiful. Will pass on although I’ll be surprised if they don’t batter a struggling Minnesota.
Leafs vs Islanders
Leafs are close to a play but the B2B and their xGA/60 is putting me off.
Devils vs Penguins
Devils nice run ended at the hands of the Jackets. Very big favourites here.Pens have been playing pretty okay lately though and causing teams issues. Don’t have enough confidence in the Devils to take them at -1.5 – data doesn’t back it up.
Canucks vs Senators
Nothing here feels fairly close.
Knights vs Kraken
Based on results I thought the data would b e overwhelming for the Knights here but it really isn’t at all. It’s their GF/60 that is really bringing it down. And the Krakens defensive metrics aren’t enough for me.
Calgary to win in regulation -110
Calgary has had 12 games already go past regulation. However, I would think this is due in part to them playing better opposition tough.
Calgary has struggled a bit at home recently. But when looking at who they faced (Tampa Bay, Florida, Boston, Ottawa) that’s somewhat understandable. They were still able to shutout Florida. Then two tougher OT losses to Boston and Ottawa that could have gone either way. They get an easier matchup today and with two losses should look at this as an opportunity to right the ship. Calgary doesn’t have another game until next Saturday, so as long as they haven’t gone into vacation mode early, should look to empty the tank to finish with a win before the holiday break.
Chicago is on a 3 game win streak. And the wins were against good teams. However, aside from the last game vs Seattle, the xGF hasn’t been very impressive. The xGA has been good the last two for Chicago. But both were at home and I wonder how long they can consistently do this for. During Chicago’s three game win streak, they’ve scored 11 goals on 70 shots. That’s a 15.7 shooting percentage for a team that’s shot a below average 9.9 percent up to this point. The save percentage last three has been 92.7. Now Chicago is on the road and I could see some potential regression.
I could potentially see a Calgary 3-1 win here today.