Written by Scott on Saturday, December 26th, 2015
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Hope everyone had a great Christmas!
The NHL is back today after a 3 day break with 9 games. Plus the World Juniors starts today too. So it’ll be a great day full of hockey.
I have to keep these short today as I have family stuff to do before I have to work. Sorry folks but family is number 1 for me. Hopefully tomorrow will be back to normal.
Red Wings vs Predators Betting Tips:
When these teams play each other they score. They last played each other on December 5th and it was the Wings winning 5-4
They both sit tied for 15th in the league in goals per game and over the last 10 matchups against each other there has been an average of 5.90 goals.
Over 5
Sabres vs Bruins Betting Tips:
Bruins have been playing great hockey recently. The Sabres are around .500 over their last 10
I like the Bruins to continue their hot play in this one. They are 5-0-2 over their last 7 games against Buffalo.
Bruins in regulation
Stars vs Blues Betting Tips:
Both teams are playing great. The Stars are in 1st place in the West but have an 8 point lead over the 2nd place Blues.
Dallas is 7-2-1 over their last 10 and are riding a 3 game win streak into this one. Plus they play great on the road going 12-3-2.
This should be a great game. I like the Stars chances and the odds make it a great tip.
Stars win
.
I don’t know what to say about Stars-Blues. H2H says something else, so i bet one unit on Blues in regulation. Also i bet one unit on Devils in regulation and one unit on Coyotes in regulation.
Will see what happens!
Devils, predators, Kings and cannucks for me tonight 😀 Devils at a nice price too this evening
kings win
Hard to predict how the favorites will perform after the 3 day xmas break; i.e. Bos, Caps
Of course, for those of you who like to bet on the ‘underdog’ this schedule break can work to your advantage; I prefer to wait till they’ve got one game under their belt; Hope the Bruins come through for ya. Go Canada Go!
Youre right, I’m thinking to bet very low value on some “riskier” bets just to keep some actions on games I plan on watching.
Boxing Day Bets
Southfield Royale EW 2:00 Kempton
5yo, 11-7 weight, Jockey- N D Fehily, Trainer- N P Mulholland.
9 runs, 5 wins, 3 2nds, 0 3rds. 55.56% win rate. +3.27 units to 1 unit flat stake.
I think the price for this should be quite good (giving it +EV) and it is a very progressive horse, with plenty of scope for improvement. It is fairly unexposed with only 9 races. Proven winner though in a few chases and over this distance. It is a stayer that can go well on heavy/soft ground, which should be a good asset this time of year.
Won by 20 lengths last time out, to 11/8 fav in 2nd and did not run a flawless race either. Has a good chase if it has improved a bit since then.
PLACED 2nd.
Cue Card EW and Al Ferof EW 3:10 Kempton (King George Chase)
Cue Card. 9yo 11-10 weight, Jockey- P J Brennan, Trainer- C L Tizzard.
27 runs. 12 1st, 7 2nd, 1 3rd. Win% 44.44%. +55.23 units to 1 unit stake.
Cue Card is on his 4th attempt at taking this race and his best ever attempt was last time out. He has had a bit of up and down form this year, but recently has been quite good and he smashed Silviniaco Conti by several lengths the last time they met. Conti has won this race the last 2 times and runs again for a hatrick bid. The distance suits him and the softish ground is not too much of a problem.
The only real dangers to Cue Card I think are the favourite Don Cossack and Vautour. Vautour has great form and has 100% strike rate when ridden by Ruby Walsh, however, this is its first race over this distance and so a couple of questions remain about stamina. It’s price is far too low to gamble with when that is a factor.
Don Cossack has won its last 4 races and is on real good form. Every part a contender. However, it is his first time at Kempton and an Irish horse hasn’t won the King George in quite a long time.
WON.
Al Ferof. 10yo 11-10 weight. Jockey- H Skelton, Trainer-D Skelton.
24 runs, 11 1st, 3 2nd 6 3rd. Win% 45.83%. +18.29 units from 1 unit stake.
Al Ferof is just a massive value bet I think. Al Ferof has great EW claims and is a nice 25/1. It has come 3rd in its last 2 runs in the king George, but is on good form winning its last race when It has just been taken on under a new ‘in form’ yard. It can handle the distances and the ground and although there are some real class horses in this field it should be there or there abouts. With Contis best days behind him taking him out the equation, Al Ferof has a great chance of being up there in the top 3.
PLACED 3rd.
Liverpool vs Leicester
Leicester or Draw
55% chance of this on statarea which at current price gives basically break even odds of EV, but I fancy this a lot more than I fancy Liverpool.
Leicester are on mega ridiculous form. They are top of the league for some strange reason. Liverpool have had a very mixed season of performances.
Liverpool have never lost a game at home on Boxing Day in the premier league. This has to end eventually of course, so why not today?
LOST
Liverpool won 1-0 with a 2nd half goal, in what was a very close game.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Minnesota Wild
Penguins to win. Half unit value bet.
42.2% computer calculated win chance. At current odds of 2.4, this gives +EV of 1.28%.
Penguins should be a better side than they have been and come into this game on the back of a really bad run. They have had a nice long break now though to get some rest, sort out their heads and listen to the coaching staff and make some game changes and should come into this motivated to get a good winning run going.
They have Crosby and Letang back to the squad for tonight’s game, which should be a nice confident boost and should give some good talent to the ice.
Wild were on a nice winning run and won’t have wanted to stop for the break. The winning period must end eventually and they have an appalling record of their first games coming back after Christmas.
Penguins won the last game this year 4-3 against the Wild.
Oops didn’t mean to post all that crap lmao. Just the last hockey bet haha
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Minnesota Wild
Penguins to win. Half unit value bet.
42.2% computer calculated win chance. At current odds of 2.4, this gives +EV of 1.28%.
Penguins should be a better side than they have been and come into this game on the back of a really bad run. They have had a nice long break now though to get some rest, sort out their heads and listen to the coaching staff and make some game changes and should come into this motivated to get a good winning run going.
They have Crosby and Letang back to the squad for tonight’s game, which should be a nice confident boost and should give some good talent to the ice.
Wild were on a nice winning run and won’t have wanted to stop for the break. The winning period must end eventually and they have an appalling record of their first games coming back after Christmas.
Penguins won the last game this year 4-3 against the Wild.