Written by Scott on Wednesday, December 28th, 2022
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3 tips yesterday and we went 1-2.
I had the Bruins to win in regulation so of course the Sens won in a shootout. I know the Bruins are a great team and I feel like it was the right play. Clearly I was wrong. It seems each time I tip the Bruins this happens. Talbot made 49 saves for the Sens.
I had over 5.5 in the Penguins vs Islanders game and thankfully the Isles showed up and won 5-1. The Pens had only 21 shots on goal. Lee and Barzal both scored twice in the win.
The Battle of Alberta is different these days. I went with over 6.5 and the game came no where close to that when it was a 2-1 Oilers win. It used to be a goal fest with a couple scraps and lots of emotions but those days are gone. This was all me as Graeme warned me that Skinner is a guy to watch out for. But I thought with the long history between these clubs it would be a shit show as they are do for one.
Only 5 games for us tonight so let’s get to it.
Canadiens vs Lightning
Both teams come into this game on 2 game losing skids. Over their last 10 the Canadiens are 3-5-2 and the Lightning 7-3-0.
On the road the Habs are 8-7-3, at home the Lightning are 12-4-1.
The Lightning are ranked better than the Canadiens in most major stats with faceoff percentage one that the Habs are ranked better.
They played each other about 10 days ago and it was the Lightning winning 5-1 in Montreal.
The Lightning should win this game. They are at home where they have been great this season. It would have to be Lightning -1.5 and that’s only worth 1.71.
Bruins vs Devils
I’m avoiding the Bruins for a little bit as I can’t seem to predict them at all. If I skip the game they win with ease if I play and take them in regulation, as we have to usually do when they are so high up in the standings, the game goes to overtime.
Red Wings vs Penguins
The Wings had their last game postponed so they haven’t played since December 21st against the Lightning where they won 7-4.
The Pens played last night and had a bad showing against the Isles.
With this game in Pittsburgh I do expect a better effort from them. But with Jarry taking the loss last night DeSmith is expected to start and he hasn’t had the best numbers this season.
But they need to show some life in this game and the home crowd will help them.
If I take the Pens I am going with them to score a pile of goals against Husso just to give DeSmith a chance. Husso has been great this season.
Will the time off hurt or help the Wings? Will the Pens bounce back from that bad showing last night?
Too many questions for me I have to skip.
Flames vs Kraken
This should be a good game. The Flames are in 5th in the Pacific with a 16-13-7 record, the Kraken are 3rd with a 18-10-4 record.
The Kraken score more goals than the Flames and the Flames allow less than the Kraken.
They played each other back on November 1st and the Kraken won 5-4.
Either team has had a good run over their last 10 games with the Flames going 3-3-4 and the Kraken 4-5-1.
This game could go either way and the odds reflect that.
Knights vs Ducks
The Knights are the obvious favorites here.
They lost last night to the Kings who are a much better team than the Ducks and I expect the Knights to have a better game here.
The Ducks are the Ducks. They rank at, or near, the bottom in all major stats and are at home where they have gone 5-8-1. The Knights are ranked in the top half of the league in most stats and they have been strong on the road this season going 14-3-1.
The Knights have won the last 3 games against the Ducks and each was won in regulation and two of them were when they were the visiting team.
Knights in regulation
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -120 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/28 9:51:33 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Boston -115
Talbot with 49 saves yesterday to get the Sens that victory. Ullmark tonight. Jersey coming back down to earth a bit after a hot start. 3-6-1 over their last 10. I think the back to back helps not hurts the Bruins in this spot as they’ve had a game to get the rust off and effort wise were ready to play. My only anger at myself is not getting the best of the number as I believe if I had time to check on the overnight I could have gotten Boston at even odds. That said I still don’t feel like I’m overpaying for the better team.
Also just as a perplexing side note, that Vegas line feels really low vs the Ducks. Both on the money line and the current -115 odds in regulation.
To WIN moneyline: Tampa
Lean: Vegas moneyline win (and puckline?)
Probably making no other NHL bets today, these matchups are trappy. Tomorrow’s much better.
The Tampa at home play seems clear. Far superior team and the Habs often get in deep penalty trouble.
Knights facing the worst team in the league, Anaheim also taking the most penalties of all NHL teams. Knights will prioritize what they need. If they need to rest players, they’ll do that. There is that risk. They have a relaxed schedule, and that leaves me with questions. IF the Knights show up to win, they’ll take a puckline win, and they have a nice schedule arrangement over the next week. But Vegas is running 1-5 against the Pacific and 1-4 in second games of back-to-backs. That’s more dependent on who they played, no doubt all the teams much tougher than the current Ducks. Wondering if Vegas on the extended puckline of -2.5 makes sense? Vegas can win by that margin, and certainly Anaheim often loses by that margin.
Yeah classic case of how greedy do I get lol..currently I have a case of if I bet on Vegas with this weird line I’ll be kicking myself for not staying away when the Ducks win…so I’ll stay away and kick myself for not taking Vegas when they end up comfortably covering. Vegas now down to-155 on the ML and dead even in regulation. But my betting site is claiming 91 percent of the bets have been placed on Vegas?