Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 28th, 2024
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Alrighty – my apologies for no tips yesterday. As I mentioned, I was unable to gain access to all my betting software / analytics data etc – and I’m past the point where I am going to raw dog it, so I unfortunately had to pass yesterday.
It’s Saturday, December 28th and we’ve got a fairly busy schedule so let’s get right into it.
Panthers vs Canadiens:
Both teams went into the break on a loss. Panthers -1.5 is slightly tempting – the xG stats and various other metrics line up. The GF stats just don’t though with Panthers scoring below expectations and the Habs with a solid GA/60 despite letting 5 in the last game. Gut says Panthers especially with Dobes in net to cover it but passing.
Kings vs Oilers:
Slight lean on Oilers but not at the odds. Zero value there.
Ducks vs Flyers:
Both teams struggling hard at the moment. No chance am I backing Flyers in regulation on the road. Their GA/60 is torrid.
Canucks vs Kraken:
CF% and FF% quite close. Canucks scoring more and conceding less. Better xG stats.
Ugh. I hate taking teams including overtime at odds around the 1.7x mark. Feel like if I want a team like that I should be taking them in regulation with more confidence, but on paper it does seem an +EV play.
Hopefully Elias Pettersson is good for this one as he just broke out of his slump. But it’s looking like both him and Hughes are out. Bleh – I will pass. Tough losses there.
Bruins vs Jackets:
Just played yesterday. Happy to pass.
Hurricanes vs Devils:
Ditto.
Lightning vs Rangers:
Tampa entered the break on a winning note while the Rangers got absolutely rollicked by the Devils. Would have to be Tampa in regulation. Slightly better CF% and a bit better FF%. Scoring more, conceding less. xG stats all line up. Hello we may have a play.
Yeah team news wise etc not seeing anything against it. Only negative I am seeing is that healthy scratch for Kreider may have lit a fire up his ass.
Lightning in Regulation
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -110 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/28 8:33:18 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Jets vs Senators:
Both teams come in having played well over the last stretch. Sens better in CF & FF%. Winnipeg scoring with a decent xG as well but the Sens GA/60 last 10 is ridiculous. I’d give the edge to the Jets here and it really depends who is in net for the Sens. It’s looking like Merilainen and hell anyone other than Ullmark is fine innit? Big loss.
Yeah I could see that leading to a mental collapse for the Sens obviously – although I’ve said before when a key player gets injured, often the team group together well in the game following it. Always a concern, but I gotta go with Jets in Regulation
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/28 8:33:18 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Leafs vs Capitals:
Nothing for this one. Leafs metrics are too high variance.
Islanders vs Penguins:
Slightest of leans on the Pens here I think actually after looking at the metrics – but they aren’t a team I feel good about backing.
Sharks vs Flames:
It would have to be Flames in regulation. It’s certainly a strong possibility – but just concerned about the Flames and how they can randomly leak goals. I don’t thiiiink the Sharks have the firepower but their offense has had some solid performances lately and the Flames offensive metrics aren’t enough to back them to outscore them if it becomes a goalfest.
Vancouver -120
Pettersson and Hughes doubtful, but this still feels too low of a line.
Tampa Bay regulation -110
Considered just taking Tampa Bay on the money line for added protection. Maybe the break will do the Rangers some good. Or the embarrassment of getting drilled by the Devils 5-0 will have them pissed off for this game. I don’t even know how the Rangers xGF was that high when they managed just 12 shots on goal. However, for me it’s their xGA. The defense has been terrible and sloppy this year. Which is a concern when facing a team with the firepower that Tampa has. Especially with Tampa at home.