Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 30th, 2023
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Apologies for no tips yesterday. Came down with a nasty bug.
0-1 on Thursday, as unfortunately my concerns about the Flyers SCGA came to fruition as the Canucks couldn’t get past them.
Lot of tight games yesterday with OT required in four of the nine games.
Quieter Saturday than usual which is nice as I still ain’t feeling too hot.
Jets vs Wild:
Jets had a great few weeks with just the lone regulation loss in there against the Sharks. Wild come in performing well as well.
I’d give the Jets the slight edge here but I’d say the bookies have this priced well.
Sabres vs Blue Jackets:
Neither team really that inspiring to back at the moment. I could see it going over although there are a couple of red flags such as Blue Jackets xGF/60 – and Buffalos isn’t too great either – plus the Buffalo SCG metrics. With it at 7, yeah not considering it.
Leafs vs Hurricanes:
Some real struggles for the Leafs at the moment, and the bookies have this as a coinflip which yep seems about right. Over is a bit iffy due to the Hurricanes defensive metrics and while we know the Leafs CAN overcome that it’s hard to fully trust them to do so.
Panthers vs Canadiens:
Panthers heavy favourites here. Would have to be Panthers -1.5. Habs still ride teams close enough – which I feel like I’ve typed a bunch over the past month – that it makes that one a bit hesitant to go for. The metrics would have to be overwhelming to go with that, and with the Panthers absolutely brutal GF/60 and SCGF/60 over the last 10 games it’s a no go.
Capitals vs Predators:
Nothing for this one.
Bruins vs Devils:
Bruins got back on track with a win over Buffalo. It’s not been a good time for them at the moment. They face a Devils team on a B2B.
This is one where I’d like to back the Bruins, but the metrics really aren’t backing it up at all. It’s their inability to get the goals at the moment. Devils have fairly solid defensive metrics too.
But then you look at teh Bruins impressive home record. Devils though a solid road record.
Ah this is a tough one. Very strong lean on Bruins in regulation, but just hard to pull the trigger with how few they have won in regulation lately. It’s one where I really want to back it and have been looking at it from avrious angles but can’t go with it.
Lightning vs Rangers:
Tampa come in very inconsistent at the moment. Their offense will turn it on big time then just turn it off just as fast it seems. Rangers also quite inconsistent.
Not seeing anything in this one, unfortunately.
Penguins vs Blues:
Pens coming in off that huge Islanders win on the 27th. Blues played yesterday and lost to the Avs to end their nice little run.
Pens are a tough team to back as they can be very inconsistent. But this does seem a good spot for them. Corsi & Fenwick are quite similar. Penguins should be scoring more and hopefully that Islanders resuilt gives their offense more confidence. As really their worst metrics are SCGF and GF.
So a lot of it comes down to the Pens offense. Hopefully they can deliver.
Penguins in Regulation
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/30 10:39:28 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kings vs Oilers:
No bet on this one.Oilers I’d favour but worries about the Kings defense etc.
Posting this one first because of start time. I’ve made two plays so far on the opening lines. These are based just on my power rankings and my perceived value on the pricing. So no real underlying stats or confidence based on metrics so far today.
I was able to get Winnipeg -135. The lowest I’m seeing them now is -142.
I try and do my power rankings at least every two weeks. Last update I made was recently on the 25th. I’ll say it’s getting tougher and tougher, not easier like I thought. As teams play more games you’d hope you’d be able to figure some of them out. However there’s still a lot of inconsistencies or glaring weaknesses to certain teams.
So when I make these they tend to be off from time to time. Mistakes can be made by me and you’d have to agree with where I have teams ranked.
Just real quick behind my logic of the play. I have Winnipeg 9th at 7 percent better than average. I have Minnesota 17th which would typically be right below average. However that felt low if I actually made them -1 or worse. So I have them a net neutral along with the Islanders who are right above them. I should probably have them above the Islanders anyway and may make that an update.
I have Minnesota above Detroit, Philly, Pittsburgh, and Calgary. I feel ok with that. However I still place them below NJ, Edmonton (them and Jersey are very difficult for me to Power Rank). Then Carolina, Tampa Bay, Florida and Winnipeg.
Winnipeg gets 5 percent for home ice. And I’ve made them 7 percent better than average, which is where opinion comes in and people may disagree if they are 7 percent better than the Wild or not. That gets Winnipeg to 12. I then add 2 percent for vig. So 14 plus 50 now gets me to 64 percent on Jets. That technically puts it -177 and I decided to round down to a -175. So getting the Jets -135 felt like value to me.
However it’s not great for me to be that far off. It sometimes could mean I’m missing something. The line moving somewhat in my direction makes me feel slightly better, but it’s still a 5 percent gap even at current pricing.
Toronto +105
Ugly play admittedly. But that makes the Leafs a good buy low candidate, if you can stomach it. I made them a -135 home favorite vs Carolina. I knew I would be slightly high because I don’t have an actual number value to penalize teams who are on a back to back. Personally I am not as against playing a team on a back to back in certain situations. Toronto may possibly fit that bill, because of their current price.
Two straight losses coming out of the break, both to lesser opponents. Blowing multiple leads yesterday. Haven’t won at home game since the 16th. Now facing a tougher opponent who’s looked good coming out of the break. Toronto also start the new year on a three game west cost trip and don’t return home until the 9th.
Toronto seems like the team that needs to create motivation and dig itself holes to stay engaged. I wouldn’t be surprised with a better all around full game effort from them here. They also get an upgrade in goal as Samsonov has been brutal.
Carolina has also tried to navigate its own goaltending issues. Kochetkov has had solid recent performances and may have turned a corner. But I still feel like this could be a tough test for him.
Though not confident in the pick, the plus money on Toronto at home makes it worth the play for me. There is not much justifying the pick besides the price I’m getting the Leafs at though.
Close plays I haven’t made yet.
Boston -160.
I priced Boston about -180. They may have benefited from the mini break and reset. Devils defense and goaltending still hard to trust and I need to see more from them on a consistent basis to overlook those glaring holes. At least to consider them vs Boston at home. Devils do have a good road record, have won three straight, and have better line depth. So I’m not eager to pull the trigger on Boston either even at the current price. If Devils can get better goaltending they will quickly become a top three team in my book.
Tampa Bay -112
This felt slightly too low to me. I feel like it’s a decent spot for Tampa. Better at home, 6-4 over last 10. Get the Rangers on a back to back. And while I just made a case for Toronto also on a back to back, here it doesn’t seem to be affecting the Rangers price as much. Haven’t pulled the trigger on Tampa as I’ve felt there’s better options and would require more in depth work from me to feel comfortable with it.
The Probably Have Value But Still Not Eager To Bet List
Columbus +172.
Number one I got a +400 draw after regulation bet that cashed yesterday with them Vs Toronto. And I like Toronto to bounce back vs Carolina tonight. So I’m not eager to bet Columbus here in this spot. I’d like to just take that +400 from Columbus yesterday and move on.
Tarasov confirmed in net. Small sample size and what we’ve seen hasn’t been impressive. Merzlikins left yesterdays game with what seems to be the same illness going through all the teams, and Martin replaced him. Tarasov has already been confirmed for tonight’s game but CBJ probably would not start him if they didn’t have to. They have other injuries as well. Most notably Laine and Jenner, though they’ve been out awhile. The bigger one to me is the recent Werenski injury on their D Line. He lead the team in points, minutes, and was on the top Power Play unit. Now on a back to back that could actually impact and be a significant negative spot and when to bet against a team on a back to back. Also hypothetical here but, getting on a plane and traveling if players are dealing with illness could potentially have some other guys not feeling great and trying to battle through. I made Buffalo -165 and they are currently -205.
However I have no interest in CBJ and would look for a way to get Buffalo now. Team total over is also priced pretty high. Buffalo Over 2.5 -400 seems really good. Tarasov has not given up less than 4 goals in the three games he’s played. And one of those games was against Buffalo already. The Over 3.5 is priced at -170 and I’m not a fan of that. Your better off going for the safer play or going higher variance, and taking the plus money on the 4.5 or 5.5. So now if I can find another Team Total to pair Buffalo Over 2.5 with maybe there can be some value in that. The game is close to start as of writing and I’d have to rush a pick to get the parlay in as nothing else has jumped out at first glance.
Montreal +210
Montreal is just a pesky team. I made Florida -200 and they are up to -258. Which is where it opened so not much movement either way. I’d still prefer Montembeault over Allen. Though Allen has strung two solid games together after a poor stretch. Montreal play Tampa tomorrow. And I can’t just bet them off the line value alone I would have to delve into the metrics. Quicker for me personally to just pass on today.
Washington-105
Put them on here because they shouldn’t be home underdogs to Nashville in my opinion. That doesn’t mean I have any confidence in Washington or they’ll win this game. Especially off the loss yesterday and the injury to Lindgren early in the game. Hunter Shepard now scheduled to start this one. He’s had one good game and one poor one. Last played November 11.
Original handicap was just why are we making Nashville road favorites vs anybody? I have Nashville 23rd with Washington 21st in Power Rankings and nothing indicates taking the Preds with confidence as road favorites. But not an advantage spot for Washington either, too many negatives and a team I don’t like any way.
LA Kings -118
I made Kings -145. They opened -130. Now down to -118. It’s probably the closest play I’m considering after Winnipeg and Toronto. Unless there’s some information I’m missing? Of course Talbot would have to start not Rittich. Oilers have a game tomorrow, Kings I believe will be off until Tuesday after this one. And though the Kings are still minus money, this technically places them below the Oilers in the rankings. I don’t know if the Oilers have done enough for me to put them ahead of the Kings. I’ll wait for goaltenders to be announced but Kings -118 is worth a half unit play to me.
Besides the early Winnipeg play the only other actual play I have is Toronto +105. And a possible Kings -118 half unit play. I’m also seeing Buffalo CBJ currently scoreless with 4 minutes left in the first. The Buffalo Team Total Over 2.5 now -170 could be worth a look as well as just a game Total over 5.5 +130. I would still have some confidence in Buffalo getting three but they’d probably need some help from the Blue Jackets to get over the 5.5.