Written by Graeme on Friday, December 30th, 2022
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A 2-0 night last night.
We had the Wings/Sabres to go over 6.5 as long as Husso wasn’t in net. He was not, and the Red Wings conceded 6 goals in a 9 goal game.
Also had Isles in regulation and they were able to get the job done.
It feels like forever since I’ve written tips. Only one day in the last like 10 days or something.
Nice to be able to just ease myself into it with four games.
Let’s get to it:
Ducks vs Predators:
Ducks coming in after pulling off a surprise result against the grain with a win over the Knights in a shootout. Preds come stumbling in.
I don’t think there’s any way I can back the Preds here with any type of confidence, and thankfully, the metrics back that up. Theirs are terrible.
Honestly one of those games where backing the high variance OT odds is probably fine.
Penguins vs Devils:
The Pittsburgh Penguins come in having won just 1 game in their last 5. They just had that brutally tough OT loss against the Wings.
New Jersey Devils…..oh, what has happened to you? Sad to see.
I was hoping to back the Penguins here but I’m just not seeing it. The Devils are better than them in a lot of the advanced metrics. This could quite easily go either way. The Devils offense will start producing more eventually and this could be the game for it.
No bet on this one.
Hurricanes vs Panthers:
Canes come in on a great run. Performing very well. Panthers struggling but did get that win over the Habs.
By the metrics this one is a bit close – to the point that if the Canes in regulation was 1.80, I’d skip it. But we’re getting better odds.
If the break and Barkov back has turned the Panthers around then so be it. Sometimes that’s all it takes. But the Panthers defensive metrics aren’t good, and the Canes offenseive metrics are. More importantly, they’re producing and yet probably still underperforming.
Canes in Regulation
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -120 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/30 9:21:50 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kraken vs Olers:
Sometimes I audibly grown when going through the games and this was one of them. Just one where I don’t trust either side really, and don’t trust the offenses when it comes to the over.
It’s an over 6.5 and I thiiiink the Kraken can probably put up 3 goals here. Oilers should as well. But I’m just not loving it, and I’m hesitant to back overs when Skinner is involved. Not that he is Carey Price or anything but I do feel he can be a stopper when it comes to those overs.
I’ll pass on this one but on paper I think that over has a decent chance of coming in.
NJ +105
I think I’ve been a little dismissive of the Devils based on their recent results and record over their last 10 games. Digging into the 5 on 5 metrics during that span, I haven’t seen the drop in performance to match the poor record. Tough schedule that included two different back to backs. Going from one division rival in the Islanders to another in the Rangers followed by Dallas the very next night. Also Carolina and two more vs Boston. Looking to Pittsburghs 5 on 5 metrics over their last 10 in comparison and it’s not as dominating as the Devils during their stretch.
I do have concerns with the play however. Assuming both teams roll their top goalies, the advantage in net goes to the Pens. Also as unimpressed as I’ve been with the Penguins 5 on 5 play they’ve been able to equalize it with absolutely stellar special teams in recent games. 13 power play goals over their last 10 games. The penalty killing also has been lock down only allowing 3 goals against while chipping in 2 shorties of their own. The Devils have only been able to net 5 on the man advantage over their last 10 in comparison and could be a factor in some of those losses not being wins. The penalty kill has still been solid allowing the same, and the Devils stay relatively disciplined for the most part. However when a team is clicking as well as Pit is currently, that may not matter. Keeping this a 5 on 5 game will be a key to my bet cashing as I feel confident in the Devils chances there. Also blowing that Red Wings game could see them dial it up. However Jersey should be just as motivated and cancel that out.
The main factor in the play is getting the Devils at the plus money. When handicapping the game before looking at the lines, I made the line Pittsburgh -113. So the current -125 is not far off ( 2 to 2.5 percent at best). I also contemplated waiting to see if it climbed higher, however didn’t want this to potentially move towards the Devils. At minus odds the game becomes a no play for me. If it does get higher and goes into the +115 to +120 range I wouldn’t mind firing again on New Jersey. For now I’ll take them at the +105.
Right? I was surprised when I looked at the metrics. I think a lot of it is just a lack of confidence too. They string a couple wins together they’re going to start thumping teams again. They’ve got that Western road trip where we might be able to find some nice value on them.
Yeah I looked ahead at their schedule and saw that West coast trip last night lol. I know speaking for myself it was laziness on my part as well. When they got off to the hot start and I saw just how dominant their early metrics were I was like oh they’ll definitely regress there’s no way they can keep this up. When I started looking at final scores and saw their recent losses I was like yeah there it is I knew they’d come back down to earth. But the stats really don’t reflect that. With 4 games instead of 12 I actually can look at the games lol. Sometimes in my case can be a curse too where I over analyze every little detail. And then the actual game is played and two minutes in goes nothing like the way I scripted it. Sometimes the 12 game slate just forces you to make a pick, and instinct and feel kicks in. Now i’m hoping I’m not too eager to bet the Devils that I’m not forcing the pick in a less then ideal spot. Which is why I liked the +105, makes it easier to stomach the loss if I’m wrong.
I was looking to go against Seattle but this might not be the spot. My case was looking at the break down of their month by month record.
A November where they went 10-1-1 has carried them. In the months of October and December they’ve been a below .500 team though. It makes me feel like that magical month is an outlier, and question whether they are actually an above .500 team. The biggest culprit seems to be the goaltending. They are however, a team that gives effort and gets the most out of their players and roster despite lacking any true stars that you see litter other NHL teams. They can also rely on more then just one player and roll 3 lines that can cause the non elite teams problems.
It’s amazing to me how much Edmonton has squandered what Skinner has given them in net. If looking at the Oilers at first glance and trying to figure out the reason for their underachieving, I probably would have said the play of Jack Campbell.
All his metrics are some of the worst of any goaltender this year. Yet he still has a winning record. Enter Skinner and they now have a goalie with some of the best metrics. Save percentage just under 92, 2.81 Goals against average, GA% – at 89 (anything under 100 is above average), and a 7.2 Goals saved above average. His record? 11-9-1. not much better than Campbell. This team carries so much dead weight. The fact that Evander Kane is still 8th in points while playing 22 less games than everybody else speaks to it. Anytime they are minus money I struggle to confidently back them.
All this is more just a rant than any actual play. Needless to say, I wanted to go against Seattle and will be interested to see if I can find the right spots to do so in the near future. Just couldn’t get there in the matchup vs the Oilers. Intrigued to see the final outcome of the matchup and if anything can be taken away going forward.