Written by Graeme on Sunday, December 31st, 2023
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1-0 last night as the Penguins duly delivered.
Frustratingly, the Bruins delivered too but I just couldn’t bring myself to back them.
Leafs were unable to really get the goals going so glad I skipped that potential over. Oilers got the tight win over the Kings.
Last day of 2023 let’s try and end it on a win. Hope you all have a great New Year! And thanks to everyone who reads, comments etc throughout the year. It’s much appreciated. We do this primarily out of passion so it means a lot.
I doubt we’ll write anything up tomorrow just because it’s the Winter Classic and we never really bet those.
Wild vs Jets:
Just played. Not touching.
Red Wings vs Bruins:
With Bruins on a B2B and on the road, happy to skip this one. By the metrics I actually don’t hate a Wings victory. Their goaltending of course is the main issue but at home against a team on a B2B it’s not the worst spot for them. I’d need a better price than 2.05 though. Like at least 2.20 I think based on the way the Wings have played recently.
Senators vs Sabres:
Not really interested in backing either team at the moment. The over could come in but at 7 it’s too heavy considering the low SCGF of both teams.
Penguins vs Islanders:
Eh these two teams just played. Islanders go from that 7-0 loss to the blowout over the Caps. You’re a better person than me if you can predict this one.
Lightning vs Canadiens:
Just cannot back Tampa with any degree of confidence right now. But not like we can back the Habs either.
Stars vs Blackhawks:
Another one where they just played. And you’d have to take Stars -2.5. No thanks.
Ducks vs Oilers:
Oilers on the B2B which is a tad offputting. So many road games too that wears on a team. I don’t hate Oilers in regulation here but I’d need a better price. Ducks have a solid SCGA/60 as well.
Flames vs Flyers:
One where I absolutely don’t have a clue, so go to the data to see if there is anything. And eh – let’s see. Flyers better GF/GA but worse in the xG department. Flyers do have better SCG. Flames looking like they are rolling in some key line changes to try and get ticking.
I’ll be honest – Flyers are VERY close to a play here based on the data. I’m going to go with it personally. If the Flames get the chances going and get their offense ticking then so be it.
Avalanche vs Sharks:
Would have to be Avs -2.5. Not taking it. Even -1.5 I feel is a tad tight.
I didn’t identify too much as far as opening lines go. If I hadn’t played Winnipeg yesterday I probably would have grabbed the -105 line they opened at. Especially with Kaprizov leaving the game with an injury and set to miss this one. Gustavsson also left for the Wild, though Fleury was always scheduled to start this game. Just something to monitor going forward if Gustavsson misses extended time. I think him and Boldy and Kaprizov getting going recently were why the Wild were trending up after a slow start. So they need Gus and Kap healthy. Winnipeg has moved to -130 now and that’s just too high for me personally. They were -135 at home just yesterday so I can’t take -130 on a road rematch a day later.
The other is Boston. This one’s not because of the pricing more of a gut feel. I made it Boston -130 it opened -135. And now the -130 is available. Ultimately I’ll leave it alone as I could be wrong.
I noticed movement on the Pittsburgh line. I made the game Pit -120 and that’s where it opened. I’m now seeing Islanders the favorite and Penguins at -105. It wasn’t a game I’ve put much time into, so barring any news I’ve missed I’m assuming it could be two things. Penguins on the back to back though they’ll be home for both games. Also potential revenge spot for Islanders. Penguins just beat them in a 7-0 rout coming out of the break. The Islanders bounced back 5-1 vs Washington and may look for some payback vs a team that just played yesterday. I have no opinion on it and would probably have went with Pit at -105 without any of the rest or revenge angles.
Going to go with goal scorers today without anything jumping out.
For Winnipeg vs Minnesota
Winnipeg Scheifele +165
Very close to taking Ehlers +190. But ultimately going with Scheifele.
Also I do not think either of these Jets D-Men will score but Schmidt +1300 and Pionk +850 are decent value if you don’t mind the high risk low expectations that you’ll probably end up disappointed. I’m choosing a risk play to be on a Wild defenseman instead so I won’t be playing them. But getting to play against a 40 year old goalie whose reflexes might not be as sharp wouldn’t shock me if one of them lands.
Minnesota Eriksson Ek +150
I think he has the best chance for the Wild. Especially with no Kaprizov.
Minnesota Spurgeon to score +800 and to score first +4200
Do i think either of the two will land? No. But I like the value. Spur has had a tough injury plagued year and this may still be too soon coming back and being on a back to back. But he can potentially get to the mid range shot and beat Brossoit with it especially if Jets come out slow.
lol Spurgeon goes with the shot pass redirect for Foligno instead of selfishly taking it himself. It was the right choice but he did have a decent look at a shot cuz Gaudreau won that face off back to him clean. Oh well