Written by Scott on Wednesday, December 4th, 2024
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It was a busy Tuesday night of hockey. Thanks to Graeme for covering the tips yesterday as a miscommunication had me unable to do them as I was driving.
Had 1 tip of the Bruins in regulation but needed overtime for the Bruins to win 3-2.
Laine made his Canadiens, and season, debut and scored and the Habs won 2-1. The Pens beat the Panthers 5-4 in OT and extended their win streak to 4 games, the Sharks beat the Caps 2-1 in OT and the Avalanche rallied scoring 5 goals to beat the Sabres 5-4.
A slower night with only 4 games.
Bruins vs Blackhawks
Bruins played last night. They have won 2 games in a row. Bruins have better numbers in CF, CA, SF, SA and expected goals numbers show them scoring less than they should and allowing more than they should.
Just with them playing last night and their offense not showing up it’s tough to back them.
If taking Bruins here we would need to take them in regulation and seeing them play in OT last night has me put off of taking them here.
Predators vs Leafs
The Preds have lost 4 in a row, rank 32nd in GPG, are 2-3-5 in last 10 and 2-6-4 on the road.
The Leafs are 8-2 last 10 on 2 game win streak and are 11-3-0 at home.
Preds have better Corsi numbers, the shots numbers favors the Leafs as do the goals and expected goals.
I’m a little worried here as I would have to take the Leafs in regulation and the Preds last 3 games were all OT losses.
Knights vs Ducks
Knights played last night and won 1-0 against the Oilers in Vegas. Now they are in Anaheim to play the Ducks.
Both teams are 6-3-1 in last 10. On the road the Knights are 6-4-3 but at home they are much better going 10-3-0.
Looking at the numbers and they are all fairly close with the Ducks having the edge in the GF/A and XGF numbers.
I like the Knights to win here despite what the numbers say. I would have to take them in regulation and I just can’t do it with their last 2 road games going to extra time.
Stars vs Kings
Both teams have been doing good in last 10.
The Stars are 7-3-0 and on a 3 game win streak. On the road they have gone 6-6-0.
The Kings are 6-4 last 10, also on a 3 game win streak and have been playing great at home going 8-2-1.
Stars have better Corsi and Fenwick for numbers, better numbers in shots for, goals for and XGF. The Kings have the better defensive numbers allowing less shots, goals and XGA.
The odds for this game are pretty close with the Stars slightly favored which make it a tough play.
Any theories as to why that Toronto line is so low and continues to drop? Opened Toronto -165. Which felt low to me. Was down to -155 late last night. Currently available at Toronto -135. I know Toronto has a lot of injuries but also did just get Matthews back.
Toronto is in first in the Atlantic. They have won 2 in a row, are 8-2-0 over last 10 and are 11-3-0 at home. Nashville is in 7th in the Central only ahead of Chicago. They have lost 4 in a row, are 2-3-5 over last 10, and 2-6-4 on the road. Current point projection totals for each team are Toronto 104.5 -130 to the under. Nashville 86.5 -120 to the over. Which still puts Toronto more than 8 wins better than Nashville.
Is the theory Nashville has been unlucky with all the OT losses? And aren’t as bad as their record and some of those should translate into wins going forward or sort of balance out for Nashville? The OT and Shootouts are still after all gimmicks.
I tend to be a contrarian bettor. And like to go against line moves that feel like they have gone too far. Usually though that’s the public betting a team too high. This seems to be the opposite. My inclination would be to grab Toronto at the -135, but I must be missing something right?