Written by Scott on Monday, December 5th, 2022
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We had 2 tips yesterday and went 1-1.
Had over 6.5 in the Sharks vs Sabres game and this came through when the Sabres won 6-3.
We also had over 6.5 in the Wings vs Jackets game but this hit 6 when the Wings won 4-2. 7.27 xG what ya gonna do. Jackets really should have scored at the end there.
The Stars scored 4 times in the 3rd to tie the game but the Wild won 6-5 in a shootout. Hintz scored his second career hat trick in the loss.
We have a decent night of hockey for us with 6 games scheduled.
Knights vs Bruins
This should be a good game.
The Knights are 5-4-1 over their last 10, are ranked 10th in GPG with 3.42 and 5th in GAPG with 2.62. They are on the road here where they have gone 11-2-1.
The Bruins are the best team in the league right now. They are ranked 1st in GPG with 4, 1st in GAPG with 2.13, have the 3rd best powerplay and 2nd best penalty kill. They are at home where they are on a NHL record 14-0.
The Bruins last 3 home games were against some tough teams the Avalanche, the Lightning and the Hurricanes who bounced them from the playoffs last year.
It’s hard to bet against the Bruins anytime but when they are at home we have no choice but to bet them.
Bruins in regulation
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -120 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/05 8:21:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blues vs Rangers
Both of these teams have been hard to predict this season.
The Blues have lost their last 3 and are 6-7 on the road and 11-13 overall. The Rangers have lost their last 2, are 4-6-4 at home and 11-10-5 overall.
I am skipping this game as both teams are just too tricky to try and predict.
Avalanche vs Flyers
The Avalanche are coming off of that loss to the Bruins where they looked bad. They have gone 6-4 over their last 10.
The Flyers continue to struggle. They have gone 1-6-3 over their last 10 and are at home where they have gone 5-7-1.
The Avalanche are still banged up and have 8 players on the IR and 1, Lehkonen, who’s day-to-day. But luckily for them they are a deep team and one of the few who can withstand all of the injuries and still be competitive.
I do like the Avs to win but they are on the road and we have to take them in regulation and the odds for that are 1.76 which isn’t enough to make a tip.
Capitals vs Oilers
The Caps are still trying to get to .500 on the year and are currently 10-12-4 and on the road where they have gone 3-8-3.
The Oilers are 6-4 over their last 10 and in Edmonton with a home record of 7-6.
Kuemper left the last game after getting hit in the head so if he misses any time Lindgren would take over the starts for the Caps.
The Caps have had a bad start to the year but looking at their injuries you can see why. They played once this season and it was the Caps winning 5-4.
I’m skipping this game. The Oilers should win but their home record doesn’t give me enough confidence to make it a tip.
Coyotes vs Flames
The Coyotes have lost their last 4 straight and are 2-5-3 over their last 10.
The Flames won their last game and are 5-4-1 over last 10.
The Coyotes road record this season is 6-9-3, the Flames at home have gone 8-5-1.
With the Flames the heavy favorites here we have to determine if they are worth taking with their record over the last 10. A -1.5 play on the Flames has odds of only 1.83 which is just too low for me.
Canadiens vs Canucks
There is nothing from this game that I like. Both teams are around .500 and haven’t given me any reason to back them.
I would give the slight edge to the Habs here but they are on the road so it makes it that much tougher to predict.
Oho no one in the comment section. Sick!
Are you scared guys? 🙂
There are several implications how you can bet without thinking too much.
For the moment I like looking at SV% of starting goalies. For sure, this is no 100% indicator, but it is an unbelievable strong indicator when the goalie is playing his stats.
One more thing I like is to look at odds in the morning and before games start.
There are several factors which have influences on odds: placed money and also starting goalies as I suppose. And it is the best way to profit from manipulated games. Games which are called “fixed” in our betting scene.
So if you read this, I want to ask you.
Do you also know no brainer tactics to place bets?
Good strategy is “Empty net”. Specific situation when one team is 2 goal ahead. Around 54 min i bet, that the leading team will score then next goal. Brainlesss and high profitable strategy in general.
I’m a bit confused about this one as the mass majority of the time, the team playing with an empty net doesn’t score. Unless you have specific rules for it – scoring with an empty net success rate is less than 20%. It’s usually in the 16-18% range.
G-So based on data would it not make sense to bet -1.5 live at the end of 3 if odds are reasonable?
Would be a case of seeing what the odds are, and also seeing if it differs from team to team.
So like using last seasons data as an example, Rangers had a 31% scoring with an empty net rate. Your Bruins had a 4% scoring rate. So are the bookies adjusting based on those rates etc?
There’s a ton of factors to consider and a lot depends on the odds as to whether it’s worth it or not. I’ll try and have a glance this week when teams pull their goalie and see what the odds are.
In response to Paul’s suggestion i think he’s implying in a particular situation. Not all empty nets in general. So a team down one that pulls the goalie, agreed the success is not as great as most bettors would assume. in most goalie pull situations, the team is trailing by one have the puck and i would say there’s a minute and half or less left. Which leads to killing time in the corner or flinging the puck down the ice at the open net and icings in exchange to kill 6 seconds at a clip.
In his scenario it’s finding teams that are up two goals with say 9 to 6 minutes left. At which he goes into live betting and bets the team up two to score the next goal. Being down two you see coaches now pull the goalie with 4 and half to 5 minutes left out of desperation. To the coach why the heck not? With 4 and half minutes of time to shoot at the empty net instead of the typical 70 seconds the odds are greater on the team up two. Also there’s no pressure in those players minds with the two goal cushion instead of a one goal swing so they are thinking fully about stats and offense. Even if it’s getting a teammate who’s been snakebit a well deserved goal.
I’m assuming he’s seeing that the live betting market on this particular niche bet is not quick enough to factor the goalie will be pulled for such an extended period of time and are putting up generic lines. Because he’s getting to it early enough. So he’s getting to it before they factor in the possibility and when there’s still a big enough amount of time left that they aren’t just taking this down and off the board. Also with team to score next being his bet not -1.5 he’s probably getting a much better price. Since the team is already at the -1.5 it’s probably heavily juiced. assuming it’s not a three way bet, ie
Next to score
Team A -130
Team B +110
Draw/ No goal scored -225
If his book is just giving him Team A and Team B as the options he doesn’t care if team A is only successful 16-20 percent. If they don’t score it’s a push. He only cares if the other team scores which is still a possibility you would have to factor in.
An example of his situation could be looked at yesterday. Buffalo was up 5-3 on the Sharks late in the third. Needing two goals the Sharks pulled their goalie much earlier then you would only down one. If he anticipated this and took Sabres to score next at a decent price around a time with say 7 minutes left, only a minute later once the goalies pulled the odds highly shift towards Buffalo or it’s pulled down completely and you can’t bet it. Tuch scored an empty netter for the Sabres at the 16:37 mark with still 3 minutes and 23 seconds to spare.
I’m not saying it’s successful or not. I don’t know if this is widely available or how they price it. Or when books pull this off the board. I’m just attempting to elaborate on what Paul’s strategy he suggested is and when he implements it. Assuming it’s done correctly and you push on no goal scored, there could be some value to it.
Thanks for the detailed write-up. That is much appreciated!
No such thing as no brainer bet.
Save percentage is built into the price. It’s already factored into the line so blindly betting based on save percentage alone, in the long run limits your margin for success.
The goalie with the higher save percentage is not always the better choice. A team that shoots more can overcome a goalie with a better save percentage. Look at Kings vs Coyotes December 1st for an example of this. You’ll have to overcome the line price still as well. If your looking at a day or even a week of data to support the strategy sure you can find it. But it doesn’t equal future value, similar results or success.
Tailing line movement. I would disagree with the thought that line movement is an indication of a manipulated game. Most money that moves a line that can’t be explained (injuries or starting goalie etc.) is because it’s liked at that particular price. When you finally come in it’s too late and the value is gone. That doesn’t mean it can’t still win. But realize it has to win more often for you because you paid more for it. And you’re getting the worst of the price. You’re probably paying on average 5 percent tax on tailing opening line movements. Add roughly 2.38 percent in vig, and your bets have to win 7.38 percent more often for you to break even or be profitable. Hypothetically let’s say the average gambler needs to win 57 percent (I don’t know if this is the actual number I’m just using it as an example) of his bets in NHL, you would need to win 65 percent to make a profit. At a certain point this number becomes too high to overcome even if you were the best NHL handicapper. If I had to win 70 percent of my hockey bets to be considered successful…ummm yeah…I hope you get my point.
Extract every percent of value you can. And don’t willingly give away any value because it makes it that much more difficult for you to overcome. Remember you’re trying to predict the probability of a certain outcome. Your not picking a team.
“The Bruins are the best team in the league right now”
-Scott
Thanks man, I love the sound of those words.
Should be a great game, but with Cassidy returning there’s too much drama for me. After hitting the over, Brazil handicap and Junior to score this morning I will keep my powder dry. Might take a look at some player props.
GLTA SDB
Vegas +170
Only a half unit on Vegas with Eichel and Pietrangelo out. I feel there’s still value in vegas and we might have Boston overpriced. They were -180 before Eichel game time announcement and now have shot up to -200 after it became official. Boston was just -160 vs the Avs who were +140 two days ago in that matchup. The Avs are 17th in the league in points, tied with The Rangers. Now Vegas who I have ranked 3rd in my power rankings opened at even better odds of +155. I feel like markets over react to injury news too much. Not that they don’t matter Eichel and Pietrangelo matter greatly. But they typically matter more in the long run not in the short term. Also better teams are able to overcome injuries easier for a game than bottom of the table teams. But my main issue is I don’t think people are able to properly put a price on how they should impact the line of a game. Viewing the line as already overinflated the extra surge of volume driving Bostons price up gives the pick more value. I feel like Vegas should have made the game vs Colorado -180 and this game vs Vegas -160. But once Boston handily beat the Avs they now had to try and correct it and I’m now getting a better team at better odds. And I still get Swayman and avoid the better goalie in Ullmark.
Also I see rangers value at -165 vs the blues.
Half unit on Vegas +170
Full unit Rangers -165