Written by Graeme on Friday, December 6th, 2024
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A winning night for Scott last night. He had the Jackets/Oilers to go over 6.5 and it went over with ease, with a nice 9 goal thriller.
I’m still fuming about those Bruins from the other night. Their offense is driving me nuts, and they’re going to have to be unbackable for me going forward for a good few weeks.
We’ve got a nice six-pack of games tonight so let’s get right into it. BTW I have a big caffeine rush going on after drinking way too many teas and a cappuccino and am wired – so if my writing is all over the place that’s why. Caffeine never really affects me – but occasionally it does, and I just get freaking WIRED. Been driving my wife nuts yammering on the last hour now.
Devils vs Kraken:
Devils a bit inconsistent last couple of games. They’ve lost two at home in a row, and host the Kraken whose offense is crushing it last couple of games.
Makes me lean the over – but I’m not seeing enough data points hit for that. GA & xGA isn’t there. From the data it looks like a win for the Devils, but not enough to go with the handicap. No play.
Leafs vs Capitals:
Leafs coming in on a three game winning streak. Capitals still battling hard and being very impressive.
These two played back in November and the Leafs ran out 4-3 winners in OT. I remember that one as I was sooooooo close to taking the Caps there.
Leafs are strong favourites – if backing them, would have to take in regulation. Not loving that at face value. CF & FF goes Caps way, as does the GF/60 and xGF/60. Really the only thing going for the Leafs is slightly better xGA/60 and GA/60. Not enough to back here for them in regulation.
Rangers vs Penguins:
The New York Rangers are struggling bad. After that hard fought win over the Haps, they got destroyed by the Devils. Now they host the Pittsburgh Penguins who have been playing pretty well as of late. Rangers are pretty darn heavy favourites for this clash.
I don’t have the confidence in them with recent results so it’s a case of whether there’s a value bet on the Pens? CF% and FF% are very close to each other. Pens scoring more, conceding slightly more but with a better xGA and xGF. Their SCGA/60 is gross though.
Rangers at home are 6-5-1 although have lost 3 of their last 5 here. Pens on the road are a bleh 4-6-2.
When these two faced off earlier in the season, Rangers ran out 6-0 winners.
I’ll be straight up here; not a bet I am confident in winning, but I feel there is enough value to go with Penguins incl OT/SO. And please note I generally hate backing the Penguins last couple of seasons, especially on the road. If the Rangers skid ends here so be it.
Ontario: 2.55 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.65 Odds at Intertops.
USA: +165 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 2.65 Odds at Intertops.
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/06 10:56:21 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canucks vs Blue Jackets:
There miiight actually be value on the Jackets here, but it just feels a super roll the dice play. Like I could justify it – but it still feels like too big a gamble.
Knights vs Stars:
Intriguing game this. Bookies have it close to a flip with slight lean on Dallas.
By the metrics – Dallas much better in CF% & FF%. Their offense should probably win them this game. It’s a bit close to call though with the Knights goaltending stepping up for them. If Samsonov was in net tonight I think I might just like Dallas. BUt their offense is sputtering a bit last couple of games so I’ll pass. I may revisit it and post in the comments if the Knights don’t go with Hill.
Schedules could be a factor too. Knights have a longish break after this so may put in extra effort, while the Stars at the end of their road trip and are back at it Sunday.
Ducks vs Wild:
With how close their games are at the moment not interested in Wild -1.5 which is what it’d have to be based on the odds.
New Jersey Hischier to score +185.
He had a long drought through most of November without scoring that lasted 10 games. But looks like he might be out of it. Has scored goals in three of the last five games, including a hat trick vs Nashville. Has 9 goals in 13 home games on the year. 20 Shots on Goal over the last 5 games as well.
Devils and Wild 💪