Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 7th, 2024
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Pens one didn’t come in yesterday but that’s alright – not too surprised. Thought the value was there, and based on how the game went, I still feel that way. It was a very close game, and if one of those post shots go in, we could be celebrating a big win today instead.
Glad I stayed away from that Devils/Kraken over. Saw a lot of people on that one.
Usual big Saturday with 11 games so let’s get into it.
(Note: after going through the games I unfortunately have no plays today)
Also shoutout to Big Jet TV which is live broadcasting Heathrow landings today during #StormDarragh. I find that shit so addictive and have been watching all morning.
Bruins vs Flyers:
Zero interest in the Bruins at the moment due to their offense. Looking at the metrics and I wouldn’t back them based off those.
Sabres vs Utah:
Nothing here. Feels closer than the bookies have it. Can’t trust Sabres offense at the moment.
Blackhawks vs Jets;
Blackhawks on a bad run. Jets ended their skid in OT against Buffalo. By the data, very slight lean on the Jets. Nowhere enough to take them in regulation. I’m not diving into it more, but it looks like there’s slight value on the Hawks just based on the metrics. Not a team I am interested in backing though.
Islanders vs Hurricanes:
Canes big favourites here but after that losing run they had, not rushing to back them on the road in regualtion. Metric data says to stay away from that too.
Panthers vs Sharks:
Would have to be Panthers -2.5. Data isn’t even there for -1.5.
Red Wings vs Avs:
Seems like a lot of name value odds today – like the Avs 1.52 here. It’s a case of trying to pick that value based on that. If the Red Wings could produce offensively, this would be one for that. But tehy aren’t able to. Like if it was just a little bit better I’d consider them here with the Avs xGA/GA.
Senators vs Predators:
Eh. I kinda like the Sens here but the data makes it look quite close. Preds should be scoring more anf against this goaltending that could be the magic for them.
Penguins vs Leafs:
Both teams on a B2B, happy to pass. By the metrics it’s close. The biggest concern on backing the Pens would be goaltending. Much like last night I actually think there is some value on them here.
Canadiens vs Capitals:
By the odds it’d have to be Caps -1.5 on the road. On a back to back? Nah. By the data? It’s close as to whether they’d cover or not, but the 2.70 odds for it are certainly good value.
Kings vs Wild:
Kings come in on a nice run. I think they’re a bit too heavily favoured here but should still win.
Oilers vs Blues:
Nothing I like for this one. Welp sorry lads – nothing today.
Flordia Panthers -2.5 is indeed alot and too much for a play… but i do for sure think -1.5 is acceptable, and i feel we should be able to expect them to cover that tonight. Not much data no, but Sharks letting 8 in against TBL last game while Florida is scoring for fun atm, i think these odds are okey to pick, and i’ll combine it with both Arsenal and Fiorentina tomorrow to not lose (win/draw). Fiorentina not losing since March at home. Fulham is great yes atm, but have still left to beat any «top teams». Arsenal should be able to atleast not lose. Gives me 2.18 odds at Unibet (Panthers -1.5, Arsenal X/2, Fiorentina 1/X). Makes it a play for me, even its always a risk mixing it small 👍
Rarely ever commenting here, sorry for being such a «ghoster». Just want to let you know for minimum 5-6 years, im always clicking in here at the evenings reading the advices and thoughts. Thank you so much Scott and Greame for the work you put in! For me it has ment alot for the whole NHL circus, wouldnt be the same without your «company» 🙂 All the best
Good to hear from you bro 🙂 Always love when new people comment. Hope to see you around more often and good luck on that treble.
Diretamente do Brasil acompanhando o site de vocês
Awesome 🙂