Written by Graeme on Friday, December 8th, 2017
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It was a 3-1 winning night last night with the NHL Tips.
We bet on two “obvious” favourites to win in regulation and thankfully both did so as the Bruins and Lightning both won comfortably. Those are always nerve wracking bets to make because hockey is so volatile and it can be so frustrating being on the losing side of those games.
Pretty pumped about my call on the Jets game yesterday. Initially looking to back them to bounce back, the more I looked into it – especially with Comrie in net – I felt this was a game that had over written all over it and that came in. I hate betting against the Panthers anyway – I find they’re always a competitive team win or lose and it can be tough watching it if you’ve backed their opposition.
Our loss was an annoying one and one where I feel I made a basic mistake. However it’s a good lesson for any new gamblers out there – you’ll make mistakes. It happens. You just have to learn from them. I’ve been gambling for more than 20 years and it was my full time job at one point in my life – yet I still made a basic mistake yesterday that I’ve made many times before.
When we were going over the tips, Scott suggested Stars/Blues Over 5.5. I looked into the data behind that one, however for some reason I looked at the data via rose-tinted glasses; basically I was looking at the data WANTING to back the over 5.5.
There’s no specific reason for that – it was just one of those things where in my head I thought “Hey I like this bet”. And it’s not like it was the worst bet in the world – however I chose to focus on facts that would support the over 5.5.
One big one would be the Stars goalscoring on the road this season – they’ve been extremely poor on the road overall. However I focused more on their last 3 games where they had scored 3, 7 and 3. And I didn’t even look that closely at each of those games – those numbers were enough to justify the over.
So it was just various things like that. Then I present the facts to Scott to go over but the facts are tilted in the direction of the over and it makes it look more appealing than it was. We’ve been having a good run the past week so over confidence was probably a factor too and we didn’t look at it as closely as we should have.
Hell that’s usually the best thing with 2 people working on the tips – we’ll usually play devils advocate with each pick etc. But that didn’t happen there, and it hurt what would have been a perfect night.
There are so many mistakes in sports betting you can make like that and I’d like to say you’ll learn from them but that’s not always the case. The main thing is not to go on “tilt” due to them – don’t get frustrated and make silly bets or anything like that. That’s the biggest thing you can learn – never go on “tilt”.
The last time I went on “tilt” was 2002 or 2003. I can’t remember exactly but there was a midweek game in the English Premier League between Aston Villa and Manchester City. I had looked at the stats and was 110% convinced it was going to go over 2.5 goals. I bet double my usual max bet on it – breaking my strict bankroll management rules – and guess what? It lost. I think the final score was 1-1.
I was furious with myself and I ended up betting my whole bankroll on a random womens basketball game where the point spread was 18.5. At the time I’d never even heard of the WNBA, and I knew very little about basketball – I just felt 18.5 points was ridiculous. Very, very stupid on my part but being on “tilt” can be scary. As it is I woke up to discover the team lost by 18 points so I just barely avoided losing my entire bankroll that I’d been working on for over 3 years at that point. All those hours grinding away at deposit bonuses via various sites could have been for nought if there had been one missed free throw.
In summary you’re going to make mistakes while betting sports – don’t let it affect you like that. Instead try and learn from the mistakes and learn from the losses and also the wins. Me and Scott aren’t celebrating a 3-1 night; we’re looking at each bet we made and asking ourselves “Should we have taken Bruins -1.5 instead of in regulation?” and “Neither of us liked the Habs yesterday – but did we miss something by not backing the Flames?”.
If you want to actually make money long term from sports betting, you’ve got to treat it that way and put the work in.
Whew okay – let’s get on with the tips for tonight. FYI it looks like when the odds listed for a game are 6.5 or 7, the game has went over around 85% of the time over the last 2 seasons. Holy crap that Pens/Islanders game yesterday – what a crazy one that was!
Jackets vs Devils Betting Tips:
This was an interesting one because the odds came out late. Prior to the odds we were discussing it and liked the Jackets but weren’t too sure how they’d be priced. We thought if they were an underdog we’d need a good price.
As it is they’re pretty decent favourites but that’s just tilted them in our favour. Funny how that can be – but it’s good that Vegas has the same value for them as we do.
Torts read this team the riot act after their last game. Which is kind of funny considering the amount of shots they got and the run that they’re on but I really liked that – it shows that he feels they’re much better than that and he doesn’t want complacency to be an issue.
We like the Jackets to come out motivated and do the business tonight. Despite that these teams have had enough games go to OT that we’ll include that.
Jackets to win incl OT/SO
Canada: 1.86 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -120 Odds at GT Bets..
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at 888 Sports.
Other Game Thoughts:
Caps/Rangers over was close to a play for us. But the two seem to tighten up when they play each other and the Caps aren’t a team you can fully back. Do like it to go over though but just not enough for us to tip it convincingly.
Hawks/Sabres is such a mess of a game – I want to tip Hawks in reg so bad. However Forsberg has been a disaster so far. Which would lead me to the over except the Blackhawks offense is very unreliable this season and well you know how the Sabres defense are.
Update @ 12:48pm EST: Crawford is in net for the Blackhawks so tipping Hawks tonight in regulation. Have to go with that one considering their 5 game winless streak – great time to turn it around. Double units if you do unit betting.
OHL / WHL / AHL / KHL Betting Tips:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. )
OHL Betting Tips (16-7, +9.20u): Sarnia Sting in reg 1.62 odds. System likes Sault Ste Marie in reg too but only 1.29 so can add that for 2.09 if you want the gamble.
WHL Betting Tips (14-13, -1.1u): Everett Silvertips in regulation at 1.95 odds. Lethbridge Hurricanes in regulation 1.45 odds.
KHL Betting Tips (17-13, +2.31u): Avtomobilist 1.90 odds incl OT/SO. Metallurg in regulation 1.71.
OHL, WHL & AHL & KHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Leaning towards:
CHI ML
NAS ML
Also, Scott and Graeme have you guys ever done/thought of doing NFL tips by any chance?
Had a great night with BOS -1.5, TB -1.5, WIN/FLO Over, and LA ML
I ran an NFL betting tips site a couple of years ago for a bit using a computer system for the basis. It did okay. Honestly over the last years both fantasy and daily fantasy have become all I care about when it comes to the NFL and gambling so I rarely look at it from a gambling perspective anymore.
NFL is also my favourite sport and it’s a rare one where I don’t need to bet on it to enjoy a random game. So I’ve lost motivation to really approach it from a gambling perspective at the moment.
@Graeme Crawford was on morning skate. Now he is being likely to start. Does it mean that we need to pick Hawks reg right now?
Yep I’d say so. Going to edit that one in.
Had a Great last night with 3/4 games went in!
Lost on Ottawa ML
Tips Come later for today 🙂
Again a night with profit 😀
I’m thinking about:
> Hawks in reg. Despite their form they HAVE to beat the Sabres at home! Or not?
> Preds in reg!? Should I trust them? xD
Agree Hawks reg. I have a big play on it.
-Nashville ML
-Columbus ML ( they are gonna be prepared and ready for this one )
– caps vs rangers over
parlays
– Chicago ML and Nashville ML
Good luck everyone
Should i add an over on preds vs goldenknights ? Im sheaky about that one …
Both are prone to leaking goals and play aggressive offensive hockey. I’d take the over.
Thanks ! You pushed me enough hehe bet placed ! GL
Yup
Home teams with one unit.
Gibbons, Ardvisson and Rakelt with half unit.
Parlay:
Columbus ML
Chicago ML
Nashville ML
Goodluck everyone!
Hawks ml
Preds ml
Jackets ml
Caps ml
Good luck everybody
If you followed every single tip of mine yesterday, and didn’t catch my update not to take the Jets then you would have cashed in. After considering the Cowrie in net I updated that I didn’t want to play it anymore. All in all it was a 8-3 night before any adjustments. To get 8 winners and only 3 losers isn’t easy so I’m pleased. That being said again I made the mistake of parlaying too much with a Kings reg win- with Ottawa scoring with 8.5 seconds left to tie it up I was less than pleased. I’m pointing this out, as it’s a mistake I am consistently making- parlaying and parlaying on reg. It has turned out to be more profitable to bet singles and including OT on most occasions. Today’s tips-
(90% Reg 95% ML * If Crawford is in net)Chicago reg/ML Yes I did just say don’t bet reg usually, but it seems Crawford is back tonight and the Hawks really need a win. This Sabres side is the worst in the league and has only taken the game to overtime 3 times this season. With their star goalie back in net, and in desperate need of a win I’ll leave my no hawks rule here. The Hawks have beaten the Sabres in every game since 2011 and I dont see that changing tonight. I am taking both the money line and reg with an equal investment.
( 85% ML, 75% Reg) Nashville ML/Reg- Reg for the brave bettor. Nashville have steam rolled almost every team they’ve been up against and are at home where they are superb. Vegas has struggled on the road, and anyone would struggle against this Preds team. Until Vegas is fully healthy and Preds slow down they’re the play here. Yes I am also breaking my no Preds rule here. I will parlay ML Preds with Reg Hawks.
I am not tipping Jackets but I am leaning their way. I am staying away there simply because their offence has really struggled game in game out and after being drummed 5-1 when Devils had their back up in net I’m not confident they’ll manage a win here.
Leans – Caps, Wild, Jackets
Thanks for the extended review Oliver,
Predators, is a single small bet from my side.
Like the Wild performance as well, hopefully won’t get asleep live )
Good Luck.
No picks or leans today. I’ve seen enough of the NHL now to think we’re at the point in the season when the predictability is particularly odd now that teams have some things figured out (some teams will get smug/strategic, and some will become progressively more desperate and manic) and when picking sides I have to insist the prospective winner is in the conference’s upper 70-90% in ranking for wins, and is also, most importantly, on a strong current trend of winning (as measured by the quality of teams they’re playing). Teams that are in the top 10% can be more unpredictable because of the mind games going on with those with huge expectations. This consideration is important in all sports at all times, but the NHL, being a game played by 20-year olds who are undisciplined, while a puck bounces around the ice and players constantly interfere with each other, you’ve got yourself a setup for chaos to begin with, made more difficult with the strange combination of factors the game experiences. I love the game, I hope to see some great teams and great games this year. Bravo to Vegas at this point! Now it’s time to see the impostor teams start to really sweat it! LOL
Yeah everything you said should hopefully remind everyone just how important bankroll management can be in hockey and I’m going to piggyback on your comment for a second. I mean two solid favourites like the Bruins/Tampa winning last night – that was a pleasant surprise for us as it’s hockey and you can never really count on the best team winning. Just have to hope you’re betting it at the +EV odds.
Tonight’s a good example – Blackhawks have Crawford back. I follow a lot of tipsters and betting communities and I’ve seen so many people talk about going “all in” on the Blackhawks or talking about how it’s a “lock”. It’s ignoring how variable and volatile hockey can be for one – it’s also ignoring just how BAD the Hawks have been this season,. Hell Crawford let in 6 vs the Devils, 3 vs the Ducks, 4 vs the Stars all in the last couple of weeks.
I do think having him in is a huge boost for the Hawks but there is no such thing in the NHL as a “lock” or anything remotely close to it.
This is where variable unit betting can be helpful. If you have a 1-5 unit system I could see 5 units being a play there but that’s how it’s important to have that bankroll system going – to protect you in games and situations like this just in case it goes tits up.
Yes. I’ve heard it said that sports betting is a marathon, it’s not a sprint. So every day I bet, I review my sense of how I see things in all sports betting in the next month or two, and how volatile it is and wager with a sense of pacing and I certainly expect to lose, and certainly do lose, some bets. And I don’t try to make up for losing bets by laying out 5 or 10 units on a 7-game parlay the next day. ha ha. Once the bet is made, I’m done with it, I don’t check scores that day, I review the ticket the next day. Watching sports has to be about enjoying the game, not giving myself ulcers. !!! Cheers folks, research, bet with a good sense of bankrolling strategically, and enjoy the sport! And take good informed advice like on this website.
Tonight tips,
Jackets win
Wild win
Predators win
Good luck everyone!
SDB where are ya bro???
Tonight’s tips:
Wings – Blues under 5,5
Capitals ML
Predators ML
Geir project 2/8
Nashville ML
Wild ML
Good luck everyone!
Hawks and Preds. Feeling confident with these. Time to to bounce back from 2 lost nights of hockey.
Need some thoughts on Caps vs Rangers.. A really though one and obviously a stay away game!
I’m betting with 2 of 3 system and want to add Rangers in reg with good odds together with Jackets and Preds. Anyone has some thoughts on the game? I’m not
Sure to take that one or try Wild in reg instead..
Need some thoughts on Caps vs Rangers.. A really though one and obviously a stay away game!
I’m betting with 2 of 3 system and want to add Rangers in reg with good odds together with Jackets and Preds. Anyone has some thoughts on the game? I’m not
Sure to take that one or try Wild in reg instead..
Personally staying away from the NY/WAS game. I’d much rather try Wild in reg or have you given any thought to the Wild/Ducks under?
Haven’t looked much into the Wild/Ducks other than I register a lot of people are going with the Wilds.
I think that one is tricky with both teams recent performances, unpredictable for me!
Might end up with only Jackets and Preds tonight.
Many possible outcomes for the NYR/Caps. Both teams one a good place now. Might go over 5 for once?
Itchin to place a small bet on Blackhawks -1.5 haha
Hope you didnt
Yea so Chicago sucks…I definitely thought they would have turned this around after a 5 game losing streak, playing at home with Buffalo. Not looking too good. Had a great parlay with Bluejackets Preds and Hawks but guess not lol.
Happy Friday guys. Not much on the board today
NYR-Caps over – Both high scoring teams although they are both pretty tight defensively. 1 unit.
LGK-Preds over – Both teams are scoring well over 3 gpg and around 3 gpg GA.
Blackhawks reg – I usually don’t pick BH but they are playing the league’s worst team. I see them getting this done in 60 minutes even though they are terrible right now.
GLTA SDB
Hawks need to get out of their funk sometime. Besides if you look at some of their losses their not that horrendous – losing twice in OT to a strong Dallas side, losing 3-2 to Preds (who are beating everyone) , losing 3-1 to a strong Kings side….Capitals was a bit of a collapse but again Caps are good at home. Lets hope we don’t regret going away from our no Caps rule.
Blackhawks are a funny team. Not ha ha funny but weird funny. They are so good on paper but just don’t seem to have much chemistry. I hope they’ve been humbled a bit lately and won’t take the Sabres lightly
Hawks get me everytime. Damm them.
I don’t keep track of it but pretty much every time I’m looking at a preview and read about how Quenneville read them the riot act, I’ll throw a blind bet on them every time. I think that’s happened 3x this season so far and came in every time. Seems to fire them up briefly then they get back to being the usual Hawks.
Seems like they are beyond getting fired up. Hard to see why they aren’t performing better. There must be some serious bad blood in that lockerroom
Caps win
Blue jackets win
Preds regulation
2 of 3 system bet
High bet
2-1 pretty good!
With the 2 of 3 system its money back plus a little extra. What you think about blues tonight?
I like the Blues here. 2 units regulation, 1 unit PL
Same system today.
Blues
Bruins
Jackets
All in reg
3 of 3! That was a good night
Good job on the picks tonight SDB!!!
Thank you. I’ll take 2-1, but I’m absolutely done with betting on the Blackhawks unless I am betting against them.
Haven’t posted in a while as it took some time to get my game going this season due to being more busy than usual. Lately though i haven’t lost in 13 nights in a row so things are getting better for sure. Especially underdogs have been very profitable lately. That said, im not a big fan of tonight’s games from betting standpoint. I think they’ll be entertaining, but it’s one of those annoying nights where you’d like to go for favorites but are afraid of the dogs. Sometimes those are the worst.
I went for the Devils PL in that last game with huge odds (i thought the oddmakers go that wrong big time) and was extremely happy with that paying off, as it checked all the boxes with some similar games in the past where the road team was coming off embarrassing loss. Now tonight i was looking to go for the Jackets, but not too happy with the odds.. Basically forcing me to go for the regulation bet (not going under 1.9). Bob is kind of struggling right now and Schneider had a terrific game so idk.. the Jackets offense has to come alive tonight otherwise they could lose it outright. But seeing them being tipped here i think i might as well go for it if for nothing more than the entertainment factor.
Caps are on fire right now and i have to ride the train. Even though the Rangers are annoyingly resilient right now, i think the Caps strong finish against the Rangers last year will carry them to a comeback if need be. Hank is back in nets for the Rangers after illness and i’ve noticed over the years that sometimes when you’re out for short period of time the first came back might not be as easy as you’d think.
Vegas – Nashville game is real iffy. Knights just won’t go away man, like they stick around in almost every game and the Preds have had the tendency to let up at times this season when feeling good about their game. Subban bros going at it, Neal returns to Nashville.. it could be epic game with a lot of action. Im going for Preds in regulation with a small bet but this mostly just for entertainment again as i’ll be watching it. I think there’s a pretty good case for them to win, but at the same time Vegas is capable of an upset here so i’d probably pass if i really didn’t want to bet on it. Or maybe Preds actually blow them out like Graeme predicted couple nights back 😀
I had the Hawks winning their next one in the back of my mind after the Caps game, but i would’ve much rather seen them play a better opponent.. Odds tonight mean i’ll have to go for PL. Make or break for the Hawks otherwise it could be a long losing streak.
Finally i haven’t had much time to go over the Wild-Ducks game. First instinct is on the Wild, but definitely have to do some more research.
GL !
Good to see you reporting in and congrats on your impressive run of wins. Lots of great games on the board today. At first glance I see a lot of goals being scored but when good teams play each other I think things tighten up. Hard to see any obvious mismatches today and as we have seen recently dogs can have their days. Are you confident about any games today?
Bit late for me guys been DJing today just got in. I’m being ballsy tonight and going Blackhawks -1.5 against buffalo
Good luck all ??
Phukking Blackhawks.
I know tell me about it. They seem to be my bogey team. Gonna leave them alone I think. A team like their should be smashing that buffalo team. ?
Anyone have any advice on the early game tomorrow morning??
I’m taking Blues regulation 2 units and PL 1 unit
Thanks SDB!