Written by Graeme on Friday, December 8th, 2023
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First a quick note that unfortunately there won’t be any tips tomorrow (Saturday). I’ll do a placeholder tips post if anyone wishes to post comments.
Long story short – on the way to KISS in Toronto a couple of weeks ago with my daughter. Planned to go to the concert then she had a shopping excursion planned the next day.
Halfway there and a couple of hours before showtime, KISS canceled. Had to turn around. We were gutted, but told daughter I can take her up to Toronto whenever she wants for that shopping excursion. She’s cashing that in today, so we’re going up after school, staying overnight and do the shopping tomorrow.
I’ll already be carting about a ton of clothes and crap no doubt, so I’d rather not add to that so won’t be taking my laptop with me. Sorry about that.
1-1 yesterday. Had the Bruins to cover the handicap but the Sabres came out firing and just never stopped. Rough night for Boston, but hey at least the Pats won.
Hawks got the win at least in a tight one.
Let’s look at tonights 3 games:
Panthers vs Penguins:
Panthers coming off that big Stars win. Pens lost to Tampa. Looking at the metrics, generally a slight lean for the Panthers but not enough to back them in regulation. Goaltending been a factor for the Pens who have a pretty weak xGA. Despite some solid performances lately, not sure I can trust the Panthers offense to get past the goaltending as they’re scoring less than they are expected to. Although maybe the past few games is them balancing it out. No bet.
Blue Jackets vs Blues:
Jackets coming in off last nights game against the Islanders. Blues off that Knights loss. Not really much I am seeing here. The GF/GA for both teams make the over tempting but then you dive into the advanced analysis and eh not so much. SCGF/60 is just 2.5 for both. Jackets brutally low xGF/60. Tis a pass.
OIlers vs Wild:
Edmonton are the biggest favourites of the day here. They cleaned the clocks of the Canes, and are playing Minnesota who just lost last night 2-0 against the Canucks. I predicted that one yesterday – that the Wilds run would come to an end there based on the quality of teams they have been playing.
The one concern with the Oilers tonight is the Wild have some solid defensive metrics related to conceding goals (CA/60 isn’t too great although a solid FA/60).
Last 10 we have GA/60 of 2.66, xGA/60 of 2.63, and SCGA/60 of 1.97 which is concerning.
So this is where we need to look for similar stats. The nice thing is the Knights have a similar SCGA/60 and the Oilers got the goals against them. Actually – Winnipeg too. Knights have a similar xGA/60 although the Jets aren’t close on that one.
Yep – based on the Oilers results against the Knights and the Jets, they are fine to play here.
Oilers in Regulation
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -No Odds yet but BetOnline. and Bovada are generally best
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/08 8:02:49 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Mostly just thoughts here
Columbus
Wasn’t interested in betting this game but initially would have leaned Columbus if I could get them as a decent home dog. However looking at the injuries, and they’ve piled up for a team without much depth if Laine is still out. He missed the collapse vs the Kings (which I didn’t even notice, I still woulda taken Columbus though) and the beat down by the Islanders. He’s currently listed as day to day and has had a quiet year anyway. Merzlikins is also out with an “illness” that has put him on IR for a week. They’ve called up Jet Greaves, who sounds like a video game NPC that needs me to take him across town to pick up a package before time expires. Dunno if they’ll go with him or stick with Spencer Martin, who sounds like a mediocre border line backup goaltender on a team going nowhere, fresh off a brutal loss against a team that struggles to score….oh wait.
Looking at the Blue Jackets look ahead for the rest of the month, and man they really need to circle this game as a must win. After this their schedule is Florida, Toronto, New Jersey, Buffalo, Washington, Toronto, New Jersey, Toronto, Buffalo. Will they sneak a win from a team on that schedule and even pull off a shocking upset? Probably. But realistically how many wins can we pencil them in for over that stretch, barring some miracle goaltending and fluke results? Banged up and in last place, tough division, already on three game losing streak. If they lose at home tonight to the Blues is there any chance they can go even 3-6 the rest of the way? Some might point to Buffalo as an opportunity but both Buffalo matchups are on the road where CBJ currently has a record of 2-8-3. Most teams looking to make up ground won’t overlook them, the easy points are too valuable. And the teams with the tendency to do so (Toronto), the Kings and Islanders have shown six minutes of solid play can end this team and erase any deficit.
The Blues should also circle this game. They are a not so bad 6-7-1 on the road. They also have a tough month of December where they’ve already lost two of their first three games. They have to stay above .500 as long as possible, and have to tell themselves a win here puts them in fourth above Nashville and Arizona. With the lack of games on today I can tune into this one to see the effort the teams put in. I can say I’m not interested in laying -145 on the Blues on the road with Hofer in net though. And Columbus at about +120 doesn’t have me as excited as the +180 chance I took and inevitably lost on two games ago.
Would lean towards Jenner +180 or Werenski +500 to score, especially if Laine doesn’t play. Not highly likely but they’re at least shooting the puck. Jenner to score 2+ at +1200. I’ll play those but extremely low, expecting to lose level, fun type bets for me. Werenski is 4 years removed from a 20 goal season, mostly because of injuries. Even if he doesn’t reach the double digit levels he used to, the 1 goal and 1.5 Shooting Percentage are extremely low for him in my opinion. And he’s still only 26.
Pittsburgh
I usually tend to play on Florida at home, so I dunno why my first instinct is telling me Penguins here. I projected Florida to open -150 and that’s pretty much where it landed, so it wasn’t because of any perceived value in the pricing. Though Florida has climbed higher since. Up to -162 and higher at places. That’s still not too crazy yet (61.8 percent as opposed to 60 percent). And the best number I’m seeing on Pit is +134, which is still not good enough( 42.7 percent I would need them 40 percent or below to justify my handicap). Pittsburgh is struggling to score to start December with 5 goals the first 3 games. And have some injuries to deal with along with their biggest issue of a poor power play. A lot of their stats are comparable to Florida’s and some of them surprisingly good. On 5 vs 5, Their XGF is second in the league and their actual goals indicate they do a good job of converting. They’re getting solid goaltending on most nights. This is more of a stay away on Florida then an actual play on Pittsburgh right now. A Penguins win wouldn’t surprise me but I’d have to get closer to +150, and it looks like we’re not gonna get there.
A first glance immediate OVER 6.5 on the Wild vs Oilers game. But already juiced to -135. And assuming Skinner starts for Edmonton he’s had some good game logs over his last 5. I don’t play many totals to have much confidence in my opinion in them. I tend to try and isolate a team total extreme from time to time. So that would put me on Oilers Over 2.5. But nothing to really pair it with. I thought Columbus Under something like 4.5. But getting Hofer in net for the Blues on the road and a -185 payout on a Two Team Parlay of those isn’t too enticing.
So far it looks like just a couple of player props that are high risk. And a look ahead to tomorrow’s 12 game Saturday card, now that those lines are available. Unless something else pops out later.
Also as a side note while speaking of player props. If anyone plays props, I highly recommend shopping around and having at least 3 books to compare prices to. I know it’s not a common practice and can be a hassle. And when betting sides the difference between -108 or -112 on a random game isn’t a huge difference that’s gonna prevent you from playing it. Or make it worth dividing up your bankroll between multiple spots. Which I think is the actual reason most neglect this practice. People just prefer to have all their money in one place.
But when it comes to props, there can be massive swings on the pricing. Some books want to attract that clientele, while others just don’t want to get burned. And the odds are extremely more difficult so when you do put in the time and do identify winners, you want the best payouts. Just to use my Jenner to score prop as example. One book has him +140 and another has him +180. That’s a massive difference. Werenski is being listed as +400 at one and +500 at another. Like I said Werenski has just one goal on the season so far. If I take that bet and he happens to come thru (still highly unlikely) I want that +500 that’s being offered. Knowing you got the best number also helps you enjoy the effort you put in. If I made a bet on something at +350 and it hit, I’d be ecstatic. Unless someone told me after, every other book in town had it at +500.
Also the more you shop numbers, the more the numbers will start to become familiar to you. Even if all numbers don’t make sense and what’s the difference between a -165 and a -180 anyway (2 percent edge BTW), you’ll slowly train your brain for moments where you’ll go “Wait that doesn’t feel right.”
You’ll also identify which books have the earliest openers and sharpest numbers, which have the highest payouts on props, or the biggest line movements after a games been made available. You’ll also get a general consensus of where the lines are at on games. Just make sure that the books you choose aren’t all owned by the same parent company. Many small books end up just getting bought up or folded into a bigger company. That bigger company tends to keep the same practices across the board at all their establishments.
Most of this is known by most people here, but is something a few may not be aware of. If it’s taking you a tremendous amount of time to shop around and the difference is extremely minimal, I’d say don’t sweat it. But if checking one or two other places gets you a +180 as opposed to a +140, spend the extra time on those. Don’t settle on the first number that’s being offered.
Good point about sports bookie mergers. There are simply too many out there, and after a year or two of new sports betters getting BURNED bad (sports betting stats show that the vast majority of betters consistently lose money – from inadequate research and reckless bet picking), the behavior of remaining and consistent betters is going to shift to be much more informed and cautious (against all the efforts of sports betting advertising who push the idea of high volume reckless betting!), and profitability for books is going to shift. Mergers are a natural process of industry vulnerability, while the strong ones with good reputation, bankrolls and dedicated users will survive the transition coming soon.
How can you bet on this NHL matches? It’s like picking a lottery number😂fucking rediculs.no skills,just average people playing on the ice