Written by Graeme on Sunday, December 8th, 2024
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No plays yesterday. looking back at the games:
– Bruins offense did produce yesterday but just still hard to trust.
– Sabres offense like I said just a concern.
– Panthers covered that -1.5 but it was tiight. I had mentioned the data really wasn’t there to back it confidently.
– If Red Wings could produce offensively they would have beaten the Avs.
– Think I mighta missed the boat on the Sens. Should have did more analysis on Preds offense against those setups.
– Gutted about the Pens one and missing out on that. Both on a B2B made it an easy pass but wish I had taken it.
– Caps -1.5 was good value and it came through. Another one a B2B messed me up.
Hating that the only thing that cost me was the B2Bs.
Alright it’s Sunday, we’ll have quite a few B2Bs today so let’s see if we got anything. I don’t shy away from B2Bs but they are always a little cause for concern, depending on the team and situation.
Rangers vs Kraken
Kraken coming in off that loss to the Devils. Rangers with a solid win over the Pens in a tight one – can they build on that? Kraken better CF% and FF% last 10. Conceded less, scored more, better xG stats. Ha – yeah this isn’t a bet on the Rangers. If anything, it’d be a bet on the Kraken.
But when I turn my attention to the overall season data – no surprise, Rangers the better team. And that data initially is from a slump that they may have busted.
So that’s really it – if you think the Rangers have busted their slump, stay away or I guess back them in reg. If you think there are deeper problems, Kraken is a super easy bet. I see the media playing up the Trouba trade being a big factor and that can be it – I’m going to pass.
Canucks vs Lightning
Not a game I am feeling too strongly about either way – and with the odds being a coinflip, the bookies kind of feel the same way. CF & FF Tampa are better, scoring more, conceding less, better xG metrics. Oh yeah this looks like a Tampa play.
So let’s look at everything else. Canucks have actually been performing pretty solid lately with one regulation loss in their last 8 games. They are a challenge. Tampa have NOT been – so it’s interesting that their metrics are still so solid.
Canucks being at home isn’t a big deal as they are 4-5-3 here right now. Tampa on the road are .500.
Based on the metrics, I’m going to take the Lightning here. But I’ll be honest – not sure how I feel about it being an +EV play or not. I’d like to get away from this, but the data makes it a borderline play.
Lightning incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -105 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/08 6:54:38 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Islanders
I’m fine passing on this one. Odds look about right.
Jets vs Blue Jackets
Nothing for this one. Data by the metrics make the Jackets look like they might have a chance, but based on how this road trip is going I think the Jets blast them away. Alas, data doesn’t support that.
Devils vs Avalanche
Devils rested on a two game winning streak take on the Avs who played yesterday and only really got that win due to the Red Wings goalscoring struggles. This is one where I am betting the data gods to go with the Devils here as I like this spot a lot at first look.
Devils better CF% and FF%. Scoring more, conceding less, creating mroe, giving away less chances.
Yeah this is one of those nice and easy ones where it ticks all the boxes, and is an +EV play regardless of outcome. If I had to play Devils -1.5, I probably would.
Devils in Regulation
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/08 6:54:38 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flyers vs Utah
Man the way the Flyers are just blindly back them in OT. BUt really – might actually not be a bad spot for them against Ingram.
Stars vs Flames
Stars looking to turn things around at home after losing two on the road. Would have to take them -1.5. Data doesn’t support that unfortunately.
So is it Lightining or Canucks bet?
Thanks for catching that ha. Lightning. Updated now.
Tampa/Canucks Props:
1) Point Over 0.5 points
2) Hagel Over 2.5 shots
LEAN ONLY: To WIN moneyline: Jets
Jackets on the last game of their western road trip, and most teams just want to get home and are feeling the exhaustion. Jets on a back-to-back, and Jackets play their third game in four days, after a back-to-back, but Jets perhaps feeling more energized, and are the better team, at home. What worries me is that the Jets are looking ahead to Boston and Vegas, so may decide to ease off this game rather than burn themselves out, as their schedule has been and continues to be consistent at a game every other day. They won’t be excited about this game. That may spell “low scoring”?