Written by Graeme on Saturday, February 10th, 2024
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No tips yesterday.
The Rangers were unable to cover that -1.5 spread, and barely beat the Blackhawks in quite a fun game.
Oilers showed some defensive frailties but were able to bounce back after their loss this week, with a 5-3 win over the Ducks.
Wild honoured Fleury, fought hard and got the win.
Tis Saturday. Tomorrow there are only two games and the sporting worlds attention is elsewhere. Both games involve a team on a back to back. I’m going to pass on tomorrow completely.
4 matinee games today.
Canadiens vs Stars:
Habs came in strong against the Capitals. Their last 3 results have been quite impressive. Dallas had that tough loss to the Leafs on a B2B.
Man – I was thinking I would skip this game. But looking at the metrics, it really is in Dallas’s favour. And 1.80 seems like slight value here.
The factor to be wary of is the PK/PP stats and that could turn this game for the Habs.
But the Stars tick all the metrics boxes. Corsi difference is ridiculous. Based on GF/xG they shouldn’t just win, but they should cover the -1.5. SCG stats make that a tad more borderline. HDGF all good. Yeah I gotta take Dallas here despite Monty being in net and having a solid W/L record this year.
Stars in Regulation if Oettinger in net
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -133 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/02/10 8:43:50 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Red Wings vs Canucks:
Red Wings first game in 10 days. They went into the all star break on a good run. Vancouver coming off that big Boston loss. They have been a very good bounce back team this year.
Detroit have been great this season at home. Canucks though damn good on the road too.
I must admit this is one where I was kinda hoping the metrics would be way in favour of the Canucks so I could back them. Not really the case. Wings with the better GF/60. By xG stats, Canucks should win this one. SCG similar although a bit tighter. HDG stats again in favour of Canucks….really looks like Canucks win this one.
It’s whether the Wings offense keeps performing, or if the break screws with them. They are nice and healthy which they’ll like.
I’m begrudingly going to pass on this one, but Canucks are a very strong lean. I wouldn’t even say there are red flags – more like pink flags. Just so many little things that by their own aren’t really a factor, but altogether…yeah, just enough to put me off.
Sabres vs Blues:
Nothing for this one. Metrics make this one look very close. With Blues first game since the break I think Buffalo will take the W, but would have to be in regulation and I really don’t have that confidence in the Sabres.
Islanders vs Flames:
Islanders on a tear post break. Flames as well. Could be a heck of a game here. With how both teams are performing, it’s a pity one of their runs have to end.
By the metrics I lean the Flames and definite slight value on them. But they are not a team I like to back in general. Islanders overall good record at home. Could be a tight one that goes to OT. If you’re watching it – there’s your bet.
Bruins vs Capitals:
Bruins bounced back from that surprise Flames loss to beat the Canucks with a couple of short-handed goals. Caps are just a mess at the moment.
Would have to be Bruins -1.5. Metrics aren’t backing that up enough. I would see it, but it’ll be tight.
Panthers vs Avs:
Avs having some disastrous results at the moment. Not worth backing. By the metrics? Man – Panthers might get this done but it’s tough to say with the Avs GF/60 and SCGF/60. Panthers defense has been solid but this can be a tough offense to play. At 1.74 odds I don’t think there is any value.
Blue Jackets vs Lightning:
Jackets first game since the break. Tampa have been a disaster since coming back. I’m fine not otuching this game at all.
Hurricanes vs Devils:
Canes coming in off the solid Avs win following the Canucks loss. Devils just lost to the Flames after also beating the Avs.
Canes tick most of the boxes here. GF/60 is quite close, as is xGF/60. But the Canes defensive metrics have been a solid factor. Canes have a very good HDCA/60 as well (although their HDGA/60 isn’t as great as I’d expect based on that).
Yeah I like the Canes here.
Canes in Regulation
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 2.03 Odds at Bovada
USA: +103 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/02/10 8:43:50 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flyers vs Kraken:
Flyers came out swinging after the break. Krakens first game since it. This is one where if the metrics pointed to it, I’d easily take the Flyers. As it is, alas they do not. It’s very, very close and when we’re only getting 1.83 odds, that makes it an -EV play.
Jets vs Penguins:
Jets have been an absolutely disaster lately. No confidence in anything here. I’d actually do one of my very rare under plays if the line was higher. However at 5.5, the bookies know what’s up. Still won’t surprise me if this goes under.
Senators vs Leafs:
Ah ye old ‘Battle of Ontario’. Ottawas first game since the break. Leafs coming in off that big Stars victory. I have nothing for this one. One of those where the metrics make it look like it’s one big gamble at the craps table.
Predators vs Coyotes:
Nothing here.
Kings vs Oilers:
OIlers on a B2B happy to skip. Think they are prepped and ready for this game though. Kings off the break but they went into it on a high. Man 1.90 odds is quite damn nice here for the Oilers. Their second leg B2B stats are fine.
But then you have Jim Hiller in charge and although new coach syndrome isn’t really a thing it still puts you right off. Plus with the Kings in theory refreshed and the B2B etc. I’ll reluctantly pass. But if I’m up late and watching, I’m backing the Oilers.
Vancouver -130
Despite Detroit home performances, I don’t like some of their home metrics from the month of January. So this is more a play against them then on Vancouver. Detroit was outshot at home in all but 1 of the 7 games there last month. Giving up 30 plus shots against in 5. And the XGA was over 3 in every game. Can’t do that against Vancouver.
I’m a little wary of some of Vancouver’s metrics that they could regress a bit offensively. But as Graeme mentioned, they do tend to bounce back well.
I also took Calgary/ Islanders Under the 6.5 it opened at. Price was -125 at the time. This has come way down however and I’m seeing some books put up a 5.5 currently.
Also would have preferred Demko in net for Vancouver. But like I said my play is more against some of Detroit’s home metrics from January.
Boston in regulation -175.
Colorado/ Florida Over 5.5 -180.
I do like the Over 6.5 at -115. But I don’t do many totals so I’ll play it safer.