Written by Graeme on Saturday, February 11th, 2023
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As a quick reminder I am away this weekend with the family and so write-ups will be short. Also with the bye weeks and lots of team coming off them it’s putting me off betting a lot of those.
A winning night yesterday with the New York Rangers in a fun game. Great to see Tarasenko get off the mark.
It was a night with the favourites winning, with the Blackhawks overcoming the Coyotes in overtime.
Let’s get onto Saturdays massive card:
Red Wings vs Canucks:
Nothing here. Canucks goaltending too wonky to back them but not enough to back the Wings either. At the odds I do prefer the Wings. Zadina being back may be a nice boost for them.
Sabres vs Flames:
Flames are not a backable team and this matchup actually looks quite close. Sabres have Thompson back it sounds like which is good news.
Winnable game for them but eh that long break. No thanks.
Senators vs Oilers:
Oilers with that disappointing loss to Philly. Such a hard team to back. Sens haven’t played since Jan 31.
I want to take Oilers here it’s just frustrating how their offense shuts down at times. But this should be one where they are able to do the job. Sens did rack up the wins prior to the break.
Yeah I think there is enough here to go with Oilers in Regulation if Skinner starts. 2.15 at Bet35
Flyers vs Predators:
Odds seem right on the money here.
Canadiens vs Islanders:
Nothing here.
Stars vs Lightning:
Nothing really jumping out at me on this one.
Bruins vs Capitals:
Both teams coming off bye weeks eh no thanks. By the advanced metrics, it wouldn’t surprise me if Caps pull off the upset. Bruins should be favoured but I don’t know if it should be that huge.
Panthers vs Avalanche:
Panthers coming out strong after the all star break. Avs – kinda the opposite. Panthers defensive metrics are kinda horrific though. Although they did manage to do the job without Barkov who I don’t think is playing today.
Panthers have a piss poor OT record so I’m going to go with Panthers in Regulation. They’re playing confident and their offense in particular is playing very well which should hopefully negate their defensive issues. 2.35 at Bet365
Leafs vs Blue Jackets:
Nothing.
Hurricanes vs Rangers:
Passing on this one due to Canes off the bye week and Rangers on a B2B. If both offenses keep going it should go over like the last time they played.
Blues vs Coyotes:
Nothing. Definitely don’t have any confidence in the Blues. Coyotes did just play but they aren’t the worst bet. I did tip them last time they played and the Coyotes ran out 5-0 winners. Looking at the metrics just now and Coyotes on the road – bit tighter, don’t hate it but not enough to back.
Wild vs Devils:
I am concerned with the Wilds xGF and Devils xGA. This is a real interesting matchup. Devils offense overperforming Wild underpeforming. Could argue strongly for either side here. Over is tempting as the Wild HAVE to get the goals going eventually. I assume it’s Vanececk in net but Over 6 incl OT/SO if Blackwood in net. 2.00 at Bet365, +103 at BetOnline..
And nothing for the Jets vs Blackhawks or Kings vs Penguins.
These are mostly unbettable matchups!
Leans:
Full game OVER 6.0: LA/Pens
To WIN in regulation: Oilers and Leafs
Not overly confident in any bet on the fickle Oilers these days; they’re either good for 4+ goals or they don’t show up. Rested, after a loss and against Ottawa they should be strong and seeking the 2 points. Oilers have an incredible 93% Penalty Kill over their last 10 games and are playing well, with the league’s best PowerPlay % in general. Ottawa takes more penalties.
The matchup of the Pens against the Kings should produce goals. Taking the OVER 5.0 seems like free money, and the 6.0 seems very reasonable.
Flames in tough against Buffalo. St. Louis needs to show us what they are now (Rangers seem to have won that trade!). Tampa/Dallas may be a clear UNDER 6.5 option. I rarely bet on the Leafs, who SHOULD win today, but they’re a fickle beast on offense. A Home-and-Home situation, in Toronto, should add some spark to the Leafs effort and Columbus is a sorrily weak prospect this year (Bedard sweepstakes in mind).
I can’t take the Jets to WIN due to their inconsistency, and Chicago has been playing a little better, probably showcasing the players who madly want to be traded to restart their pro careers in earnest (high volatility).
It occurred to me that “unbettable” matchups bring to mind the high odds “tie in regulation” option, which may apply to these games today:
Vancouver/Detroit
Flames/Sabres
Preds/Flyers
Avs/Panthers (very risky)
Pens/Kings
Don’t blame me if you try any of those!
I just feel like it’s gonna keep going the way it has before the break, with very few exceptions. The two most interesting teams to watch in my opinion will be Panthers and Avs. Both need to get going, and it seems like both are getting there, but Avs got a slow start after the break.
Barkov and Makar questionable. Lots of firepower in this game. I think the over 6 in regulation is the right bet here.
I also think the Bruins will get a safe regulation win over the Caps. The difference between these teams is just too big in my opinion.
Bruins in regulation.
Canes – Rangers. I was thinking Canes as soon as I saw this one, but after looking a bit more at it I’m pretty optimistic about the Under 6 in regulation.
That being said, I usually avoid betting on the under cus well, it’s boring and the bet can be pretty pretty much ruined in the first period. Still gonna try it here though.
My joker tonight is Jets -2.5. Blackhawks away after an OT win last night and Hellebuyck vs Mrazek just feels lopsided.
I expect the Blues to win in regulation against the Coyotes.
And for those who’s interested in basketball, the odds on Mavs to beat the Kings tonight is pretty decent. Luka will be back, and the Mavs pretty much demolished the Kings in the first quarter without Luka last night. Kyrie Irving is just incredible to watch. So if you’re gonna watch the game, stick some on Mavs and double your money!
On Boston vs Washington
Was set to tee up a play on Boston in regulation but no Ullmark today. Swayman hasn’t been bad. He did give up 4 to Florida in his last start but had a really solid January in limited appearances. But getting Ullmark is like playing with a cheat code.
When handicapping the game yesterday I priced Boston -230. So when they opened -190 it was an early target of mine. At that time Boston in regulation was -120. With the goaltender news, Boston has dropped slightly. Sometimes this creates value, but I don’t think that’s necessarily the case here. Boston is now -115 to win in regulation. I might be thinking about this wrong but that’s essentially a 1 percent drop in price going from Ullmark to Swayman.
So me personally I’m off the play.
Both teams off long layoffs. Also I feel like this is Bostons first real break this season. I looked at the metrics and Washingtons have been sneaky good. However there were two categories that jumped out to me and made me like Boston here. 5 on 5 shooting percentage and save percentages for both teams over the last 10 games. League averages of shooting and sv % 5 on 5 are 7.8 and .922 respectively.
Over the last 10 games Washington’s shooting percent is at 6.98 and save percentage is at .887 in 5 on 5 play. Boston is at 11.39 and .950! Washington 5 on 5 save percentage was the most glaring weakness to me, especially with how well Boston was shooting the puck going into the break. But you can also argue Washingtons shooting percentage is as well. Their positive advanced metrics are being wasted with the lack of true goal scorers they have at the moment. They’ve always been heavily reliant on Ovi and I don’t see who else you can really point to on this roster to depend on when going up against this caliber of team.
Still like Boston to win in regulation. You would think the layoff could be bad for them. Maybe so. But I think they are still locked in. What they’ve done the first half is historically good and that alone can motivate them to continue their torrid pace when it comes to whether they should give full effort. They have veterans that you respect. Pastrnak payday and contract alone will continue to motivate him. Though Ullmarks, not starting today and ultimately why I’ll regrettably pass on taking Boston, when you have a goalie that’s giving you that level of effort you owe it to him to continue to show up.
No play just wanted to relay some of the metrics and opinions I had when looking into the game and nearly betting on it.
Winnipeg Kyle Connor to score +100
Leads the team in shots. Slightly below his career shooting percentage currently.
St. Louis Justin Faulk to score +425 half unit
Wanted to try and take a shot on a defender, hence just the half unit.
Toronto Mark Giordano to score +750.
This will be for an amount I’m comfortable with losing while questioning in hindsight why I bothered talking myself into this.
Winnipeg Kyle Connor is the one i feel most comfortable with. Was waiting to see if Chicago would indeed start Mrazek or not, which off the back to back I am assuming they are.
Justin Faulk is more of a is there money to be made on defensemen in select spots kinda thing. I’ve never had real success with defensemen to score because of how low the expectation is. When picking defenders today it was between him, Floridas Ekblad at +390 and Toronto’s Morgan Reilly at +425.
When looking at Reilly’s odds I saw Giordano sitting at +750, and figured why not. He’s past his double digit goal, 7 percent Calgary days. But currently at 3.8, he’s only had two seasons with a lower shooting percentage than that. He leads Toronto defenseman in shots, though it’s really Reilly who has played 15 less games or so. And he gets to face Merzlikins so why not take a flyer at that price.
Winnipeg Kyle Connor +100
St. Louis Justin Faulk +425 half unit
Toronto Mark Giordano +750 flyer