Written by Graeme on Friday, February 16th, 2024
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A 1-2 night last night.
Ottawa – what the hell were you doing? An absolute terrible performance and result. They looked good in the 2nd period but that double salvo from the Ducks killed them.
Boston – what a disappointment. They’re off the betting list for a bit. That was a great spot for them to turn it around.
Thankfully the Canucks got the job done in easy fashion.
Quick note that tips might be delayed tomorrow, due to some plans tonight. Not sure how things will turn out but hopefully they shouldn’t be posted too late. As it is I’d be passing on Bruins/Kings anyway.
Just the one game today.
Canes metrifcs generally good. Canes need to get scoring more though. I can’t fully trust this offense to get the job done. I do think they should be able to here but not comfortable taking them on the road in regulation. No bet.
After last night’s 5 wild results, I have to wonder about this game as well, with the obvious pick being Carolina to win moneyline.
Arizona has major scoring challenges and they’re taking a lot of penalties which result in powerplay goals against them averaging 1 every game. Arizona takes an average of 4.42 more penalty minutes per game than Carolina. A poor team with lots of penalties often means something very different than an excellent team taking penalties. Arizona is currently 2-7-1, and they’ve lost 7 straight games. I’d be willing to take a full game UNDER 7.0 bet
Carolina has had 2 days off, yet play Vegas tomorrow and could be looking ahead. Carolina beat Arizona 3-1 three weeks ago, also on 2 days off, and it was the last game before the All-Star break, where apathy can be an issue for all players. I’m expecting Carolina to get a lead and shut down Arizona, for the win and the Under, leaving themselves ready for Vegas.
I’d spring for the UNDER 7.0 or 6.5 before the moneyline. The scheduling of Vegas tomorrow has me avoiding prop bets.
It’s quite funny whats happening this week with my bets.
First I posted bets against S&Gs advice, then yesterday I stayed back and wanted to be more neutral. Because I just post one bet at all. But the really funny thing is, yesterday I also bet on Seattle big and won. But nevertheless I stayed back to post it, because others went for the Bruins here and I wanted to be in shape,
I have endless units. 😀
Today we take Carolina ML @ 1.47 with 54 units
Carolina got a tougher game vs Vegas tomorrow. But is just coming off a decent effort loss vs Dallas. Carolina always seems to dominate certain metrics however. And while that usually seems to translate to wins at home, not so much on the road.
There’s a couple things I’m wary of and my first instinct was to just stay away. The main concern would be an underestimation of tonight’s opponent, or saving something for tomorrows game. But another side of me sees Carolina going for and securing at least a split of these two remaining road games before returning home. The best way for them to make sure they don’t get swept on the three game road trip is to go after it tonight.
One thing that helps me lean Carolina, is the injury to Ingram has Vejmelka starting for Arizona. He was able to shutout Vegas on the 8th. But his other starts tell a different story. And excluding the period of play vs the Wild, his last 6 game logs have him conceding goal totals of 4,6,4,5,3,4.
Also Freddy Andersen should be getting a game soon after returning to the team recently. And he’s gone through full practice on Thursday. So just having him around could get the rest of the team buzzing around a bit more. I would have liked for him to start in this game but I feel like they would have announced him by now if that was the case.
I know Arizona is currently on a 7 game losing streak and will be eager to snap that here at home. The schedule after is brutal as well. With a Sunday/Monday road and home back to back vs the Avs and Oilers. Followed by games vs Toronto and Winnipeg. So the first period will tell a lot to me.
Even still I’ll go with Carolina in regulation -140. And hope for a solid Hurricanes effort to add to Vejmelka’s recent results. I’ll also look for some live wagering and first period stuff as well. But if this goes to script Carolina should take this game.
Decided to post my take on the early Boston game here since Graeme mentioned the tips might be delayed.
Boston -146
So Boston has had some poor results. So why back them here?
I’ve liked the effort in the last two home games despite the results. I feel like the Seattle score line will put a lot of people off taking Boston, giving me decent value.
The spot is another reason for me to take Boston here. Could Boston ask for a better spot to get a win? The 12:30 start time should help Boston. Also Kings have to turn around and play Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Kings had that brutal 7-0 loss to Buffalo and responded with a win over NJ. And held the Devils to just one goal and 27 shots.
So we may have a pissed off and determined Boston team vs a Kings team that feels like it’s already answered for the Buffalo performance. The early start time may also have them slow out the gate and playing catch up from the jump. I’m not certain LA will have the same level of intensity as Boston should have. If the Kings fall behind, at what point do they conserve energy and start looking ahead to Sunday’s game at Pittsburgh?
Boston has won just once at home this month. And has just two more home games the rest of February. They wrap up their current home stand Presidents’ day afternoon vs Dallas. The 4 game road trip vs Edmonton, Calgary(back to back), Vancouver, and Seattle also won’t be easy. Before finally coming home and finishing the month vs Vegas. Again, can Boston ask for a better spot then this afternoons game vs a west coast opponent coming in off a win that knows they have to travel and play again tomorrow?
Couple concerns with the play for sure. If I’m going to mention Boston’s metrics over last two games, it’s only fair to mention the Kings as well. The Kings have scored just two goals last two games despite an xGF over 3.5 in each.
Also Boston has conceded a lot more at home in recent games. In their last 6 games at home, Boston has conceded 3 or more in 5. The lone bright spot has been a shutout of Vancouver on the 8th. Boston offense has also struggled at the same time. They’ve scored more than 3 goals just once (also against Vancouver) during that same span.
While Boston xGF numbers have been inconsistent recently, the effort has been there the last two. Also the xGA has been solid, despite some of the high totals against. Boston’s goaltending has a proven track record, that has me believing the goals against should start coming down soon.
I have less faith in the Kings goaltending. The Kings have conceded 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 12 road games dating all the way back to December 28th. And have allowed 4 or more goals in 5 of their last 8 on the road as well.
I did consider taking the Over 5.5 instead. And am still unsure if that was the better route to go. However, I believe Boston would need at least some help from the Kings in order to get there, and I couldn’t quite trust that they would. Also I’m anticipating Rittich will get the nod for the Kings here. While I do think he’ll regress the same way Talbot eventually did, his numbers have been solid so far.
You could also take Pastrnak to score and Boston to win at +176. Pasta has just one goal in 5 games the month of February with a shooting percentage of 4.3. On the season, he’s scored 21 of his 34 goals (61 percent) in the 28 games at home with a shooting percentage of 14.2. Though much tougher to project, to score 2 or more at +600 could be a possibility as well.
Boston -146 and I’ll probably sprinkle something on one of those two Pastrnak props I mentioned as well.