Written by Graeme on Saturday, February 17th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
Alrighty so last evenings plans didn’t pan out, so I am here bright and early to cover todays NHL action. Don’t worry I am not complaining. We did half of what we wanted to do, but bailed on attending a concert at 10:30pm.
As someone who is tucked up in bed and asleep most nights by 9:30pm, I was not opposing this cancelation too hard!
The Canes got the big win yesterday. One of those where I’m looking back and thinking – eh, did I brush that one off too quickly? Possibly. There were a couple of flags, but nothing too dangerous. Frustrating.
13 games today. At a quick glance, a few games that look like an easy pass but we’ll see how it goes. Canucks game was like that on Thursday but when I looked at the metrics I just had no choice but to take it.
Let’s get to it. A note that just the one play – Canucks.
Bruins vs LA Kings:
Happy passing on Boston at the moment. LA aren’t backable either with that whole Sabres game. By the metrics, it’s a Bruins win in regulation but I mean we saw how that went with the Kraken.
Stars vs Oilers:
Happy to pass on the Oilers at the moment. It feels like we may get inconsistency the rest of the season from them. By the data this is actually a Stars play at good odds. But eh when you weight the metrics – not as good other than that Canes result. No bet.
Blackhawks vs Senators:
Hard pass.
Flames vs Wings:
Flames two losses in a row. That Sharks one was brutal. Wings also coming in on losses although it was the Canucks and Oilers. But they certainly haven’t came out post All-Star break swinging. Nothing for this one.
Wild vs Sabres:
Wild come in on a nice little run. Would have to be in regulation. I’ll be honest I am not fully sold on them yet. I couldn’t personally back them in that Coyotes game. It’s close but I am just not seeing enough in the data to convince me to take them in regulation here.
Lightning vs Panthers:
Tampa coming in off that big Avs win. Panthers on a tear. Definitely lean the Panthers due to their offense but the 1.76 odds here seem about on the money.
Blues vs Predators:
50/50 odds for this one. Blues won 3 of their last 4. Preds struggling. GF% makes it look UGLY for the Preds. I men 61.02% to 37.10% when do you ever see that? Blues offense scoring more than they should. Preds SCGF% a concern.
I tell ya – I don’t hate the Blues here at all. There are just too many advanced metrics in the Preds favour – even if they aren’t backing it up on the ice – to go with them.
Leafs vs Ducks::
Would have to be Leafs -1.5 if we were on that side. Recent Leafs results dofn’t lean that way too much. Ducks who knows how they respond after that huge Ottawa win. Anyway the data basically says Leafs -1.5 at 1.80 in my estimination, which is the odds so no value there.
Canadiens vs Capitals:
Yeah I dunno, ha. Metrics definitely lean the Capitals way. Habs overscoring, them underscoring over the last 10. Caps are 1.83 that seems about right to me.
Devils vs Flyers:
Devils lost to the Kings last time out. Flyers playing well since all star break. Let’s see these metrics. Flyers better CF% and FF. Goals conceded is a bit concerning. Devils some better ofensive metrics. Yeah no this one is a pass for me as well.
Canucks vs Jets:
Canucks continue to perform well. Jets offense continues to be an utter disaster.
Jets actually better CF/FF % but my god a 1.28 GF/60 over their last 10. Unreal. They ARE keeping things tight with some solid goaltending.
Their offense should be performing better obviously. So let’s see how the Canucks perform against teams with – well really a similar GA/60. Actually haven’t really played anyone close in their last batch. But I mean if we look at overall season stats – not a lot of teams stop this offense.
Yeah I’m happy to back the Canucks here. If the Jets offense gets ticking, or the Canucks offense can’t get by this – that’s hockey. I’m tempted in regulation but looking at overtime metrics, think it’s fine to include that.
Canucks incl OT/SO if Demko in net
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -116 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: -116 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/02/17 8:57:50 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Knights vs Canes:
No bet on this one. Metrics generally in the Canes favour but a few outliers like the Knights SCGF.
Sharks vs Blue Jacket:
Nothing for this one.
DeNapos posted this yesterday:
Decided to post my take on the early Boston game here since Graeme mentioned the tips might be delayed.
Boston -146
So Boston has had some poor results. So why back them here?
I’ve liked the effort in the last two home games despite the results. I feel like the Seattle score line will put a lot of people off taking Boston, giving me decent value.
The spot is another reason for me to take Boston here. Could Boston ask for a better spot to get a win? The 12:30 start time should help Boston. Also Kings have to turn around and play Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Kings had that brutal 7-0 loss to Buffalo and responded with a win over NJ. And held the Devils to just one goal and 27 shots.
So we may have a pissed off and determined Boston team vs a Kings team that feels like it’s already answered for the Buffalo performance. The early start time may also have them slow out the gate and playing catch up from the jump. I’m not certain LA will have the same level of intensity as Boston should have. If the Kings fall behind, at what point do they conserve energy and start looking ahead to Sunday’s game at Pittsburgh?
Boston has won just once at home this month. And has just two more home games the rest of February. They wrap up their current home stand Presidents’ day afternoon vs Dallas. The 4 game road trip vs Edmonton, Calgary(back to back), Vancouver, and Seattle also won’t be easy. Before finally coming home and finishing the month vs Vegas. Again, can Boston ask for a better spot then this afternoons game vs a west coast opponent coming in off a win that knows they have to travel and play again tomorrow?
Couple concerns with the play for sure. If I’m going to mention Boston’s metrics over last two games, it’s only fair to mention the Kings as well. The Kings have scored just two goals last two games despite an xGF over 3.5 in each.
Also Boston has conceded a lot more at home in recent games. In their last 6 games at home, Boston has conceded 3 or more in 5. The lone bright spot has been a shutout of Vancouver on the 8th. Boston offense has also struggled at the same time. They’ve scored more than 3 goals just once (also against Vancouver) during that same span.
While Boston xGF numbers have been inconsistent recently, the effort has been there the last two. Also the xGA has been solid, despite some of the high totals against. Boston’s goaltending has a proven track record, that has me believing the goals against should start coming down soon.
I have less faith in the Kings goaltending. The Kings have conceded 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 12 road games dating all the way back to December 28th. And have allowed 4 or more goals in 5 of their last 8 on the road as well.
I did consider taking the Over 5.5 instead. And am still unsure if that was the better route to go. However, I believe Boston would need at least some help from the Kings in order to get there, and I couldn’t quite trust that they would. Also I’m anticipating Rittich will get the nod for the Kings here. While I do think he’ll regress the same way Talbot eventually did, his numbers have been solid so far.
You could also take Pastrnak to score and Boston to win at +176. Pasta has just one goal in 5 games the month of February with a shooting percentage of 4.3. On the season, he’s scored 21 of his 34 goals (61 percent) in the 28 games at home with a shooting percentage of 14.2. Though much tougher to project, to score 2 or more at +600 could be a possibility as well.
Boston -146 and I’ll probably sprinkle something on one of those two Pastrnak props I mentioned as well.
Thanks for the repost.
I did have some leans, but having the morning to go over them, I think I might be reaching a bit on them. They were
Edmonton at +105
I was ready to take Edmonton here after looking at their road advanced metrics. Their xGF last 7 away games is still crazy high. Also Carolina was +100 at Dallas just 4 days ago. So I’m getting a team I have Power Ranked slightly higher, at an even better price.
I did take Dallas in that game because I didn’t think they were getting enough respect at home. They were able to win 4-2. Having watched that game however, I do feel like it could have gone either way. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. At no point could I feel confident Dallas was going to win. Robertson was able to score early in the third, and Dallas added an empty net to make the score line look a little more deceiving then it should.
Then if you get to the metrics, Dallas was throughly dominated by Carolina. Carolina does this to everyone, so no real surprise there. But what happens against a similar opponent with more lethal scorers?
Edmonton has put up xGF above 4 in five of their last seven road games. And the other two games were both above 3. If Edmonton can match some of Carolina’s metrics I like their chances better. And I’m getting the Oilers at a better price.
Two issues currently keeping me off, and they kind of tie into each other.
Edmonton’s xGA last two road games has been much higher. While I have faith in the Oilers offense, their defense and goaltending was a major part of the tear that they went on. A drop or regression in those areas is probably expected. They’ll be going with Pickard off the poor loss to St. Louis. Last played on the 6th and has won 5 straight.
Also Dallas is scoring goals at home. A Fuck Ton. Dallas has scored 3 or more goals in their last 15 straight games at home. 70 goals total to be exact which is about 4.66 goals per during that span. And just put up a 9 spot on the road in Nashville last game out.
So while I lean Oilers, it’s enough to keep me off at the current price. If Edmonton were to climb up to +110 or better range, I might have to reconsider at that point though.
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay was my second lean. They were being offered at +105. I didn’t grab it at the time because I thought this would actually climb higher, with Florida’s recent run of play. The plus money is currently gone with Tampa now -105. And so is most of my interest.
Speaking of teams scoring at home, Tampa has scored 6 or more in its last 4 home games. And more than 3 goals in 7 of their last 8 at home as well. Their xGA in the last 7 home games has all been below 3 as well.
Vasilevskiy is performing better, especially at home. He’s won 6 of his last 7. He’s 10-2 his last 12 with a Save Percentage of .915. He’s 11-3 at home with a GAA of 2.5.
The concern to me is Florida is scoring goals on the road. Panthers have scored 3 or more goals in their last 10 straight road games. And have only allowed more than 2 goals against once during that span.
Something has to give. And though I lean Tampa, I’ll need plus money to bet them. Also though I’m not big on injuries deterring me from playing a side, I did see Nick Paul of Tampa is a game time decision. He left Thursday game vs the Avs and missed Friday’s practice.
Buffalo +126.
They’ve put up 5 in each of their last 2 road games. Luukkonen has been solid and should get the start here.
I don’t trust Wilds goaltending. However the xGA at home the last 8 games has been solid. Gustavsson has had a poor season. But has won 5 of his last 7. And has .912 Save Percentage during that span. Wild also on a four game win streak.
Things do seem to be going better for Wild. So, This is right about the time Minnesota takes a step back right? But how much confidence can you put in Buffalo on the road? The price is what has me willing to consider Buffalo, but in reality it might be too ambitious of a play.
I also had highlighted a possible Ottawa and Calgary Over 2.5 Team Total parlay at about -110. But have talked myself out of that one as well. I won’t be surprised if it does hit, but I wasn’t as high on some of Ottawa’s road metrics this morning as I was last night. Calgary gets to face Reimer which I saw as a potential positive for their offense.
Other notes
Todays Philly/NJ and tomorrows Islander vs Rangers game will be outdoor stadium series games. Both being played at the same venue. Which is Metlife Stadium. The NHL does so many of these nowadays I just wanted to point it out to some who might not be aware.
Also Guentzel is on IR for a month if anyone missed that. I think I’m the only one who ever bets Pittsburgh so it shouldn’t impact those who have sworn off that team long ago. But it will be interesting what the teams that were in the market for him decide to turn their attention to and target. And is another hit to the Penguins future. He was one of the top trade pieces going into the deadline. I believe he is a free agent at the end of the season and they now may lose him for nothing.
So Far just Boston as a play. If I can get some better prices to come in, I’ll take some other games. But with low expectations and line price being the driving factor for me.
Nothing for me today, these matchups give me the shivers. NBA is on break, possibly something in college basketball. Soccer is just past a transfer window so still a little off playing in tune.
Some betting breakthrough here.
I just needed to put 79 units on 4 bets to gain 0.38 units.
😆
Now here comes the big problem. New Jersey versus Philadelphia. Such games in general have a probability about 33.3% to let the outsider win, here Philadelphia. That means New Jersey has a good 66.6% probability of winning. This is all just a rough estimate, but it should suffice to make a clear bet.
On one side we have New Jersey to win @ 1.68
and on the otherside we have Philadelphia to win @ 2.2. These are alle possible outcomes and odds to watch.
A bit math to find out which percentages are covered by these odds:
1/1.68 = 0.5952380952381
1/2.2 = 0.45454545454545453
So, the odds are like New Jersey to win @ 59.5%
and Philadelphia to win @ 45.5%
There is something too much, right?
100% – 45.5% – 59.5% = -5
Well, well, well seems like I found good odds.
So if Philadelphia has a probability of 33.3% to win, then the odd should be:
1/x = 0.333
x= 3.003
So I found my value on the New Jersey side.
🧐
New Jersey Devils ML @ 1.68 with 1 unit
Hey appreciate your recent posts. was just curious as to how you landed on phillys probability of winning at 33.3 percent? that feels low to me.
also when you broke down the available odds being offered to you, you mentioned it added up to more than 100 percent. The -5 you were left with on this game, is the added vig or tax the books put on the game. They usually split that between both sides. If you do this for every game, they will all add up to more than 100. So in this case the -5 would be an added 2.5 percent on both Philly and NJ’s number.
So in this case of NJ at 59.5, the book is saying their true odds to win are closer to 57. In order for someone to take NJ, they would have to conceivably like NJ to win at about 61 percent of the time or better. This gives the book a margin of error that us the bettors have to overcome, even if their line happens to be off. That’s what makes us struggle so much to be consistently successful. That and of course the randomness and variance.
I know you’ve listed NJ at 66.6 percent. But at that number you’re basically saying the books true line is off by 9.6 percent. This is rather unlikely. If so it would have been bought immediately. As the sharpest of bettors usually look to identify 1 to 2 percent of value. 10 percent is unheard of.
This doesn’t mean your bet on NJ is wrong or that they won’t win. But I do think Philly has a better than 33.3 percent chance. I’m really more intrigued in your post because of the math that you used. And I’m constantly trying to improve my own. So I would like to hear from people that do use math because most bettors don’t. It might also help me fix any errors I might be making.
Just to use myself as an example on how I made NJ -140. Or about 58.33.
Last I updated my Power Rankings was Feb 5 so after this weekend I will update them again. But at current I have NJ 2 percent better than an average team. And Philly 2 percent worse than an average team. And I’m probably being unfair to Philly based on how they performed so far. Even still, I have NJ 4 percent better than Philly. Then I add 2 percent vig. That puts NJ at 6 percent. Then comes the tricky part for this game in particular. I usually give the home team 5 percent. However this is an outdoor game and leaves a lot of interpretation into how much advantage you should give to NJ.
I personally only gave them half what I would give in a true home ice scenario. That puts me at NJ 8.5 percent. An average team is 50 percent. So I made NJ 58.5 percent favorite here. Or about -141.
NJ opened -155. I’m currently seeing at the books I checked live odds available between -135 and -144. This is a massive difference between where you priced them at about -200.
I hope I am not coming across as a jerk. Nobody criticizes me no matter how many clunkers I post, so I hope you don’t think I’m doing that to you. And I’ve made this quite a lengthy read. But i did wanna break down my own math and how I arrived at handicapping NJ at 58.5 percent chance to win or -140.
If you’re saying NJ true odds are closer to 66.6 percent, then I will gladly join you as I would love to get a 2 to 1 favorite at -135. I’m just not sure as to how you arrived at the Devils being a 2 to 1 favorite here.
Good luck on your bets man and thanks for sharing. Look forward to hearing your takes in the future as well.
Wow, dude! Too much text to make it fast. 😀
But thanks for your time and insights.
This 33.3, 66.6 percent thing, is about own metrics I have build regarding special statistical momentums.
It’s my own basic space (stochastics) to make a decision on such a constellation. And I won’t explain it. This is a big secret of my own created betting strategy. 😛
About the -5 you are absolutely right. I just didn’t think it through and was sarcastic at all. 😉
About your stats, i have never seen someone talking about such nice details regarding percentages and behavior and all in context of winning marges, but does it really matter?
You have to find your own rhythm, your permanence and the good feeling of a bet. Look my yield here with posted bets is what? 0.38/79=0.0048? My real yield is like 10-20. So it’s every time like you see it and what you make out of it. What matters is how you handle it for yourself. If you dont have good results making multiple bets, just make one bet.Take your time to see your results and try to predict yourself.
Betting should be about everyones personal thoughts, but if you know some good betters and they agree on bets, maybe it will improve your betting in the end.
And now bad news for you. I’ve bet live on LA when they were down 1-2 @ 3.7 and I won. Sorry, but this OT goal was my fav of the week, lol.
Why did I bet on LA? Just for fun, goalie had better stats and they won the last game, Boston lost the last. Easy metrics. Stupid bet.
Cool no worries. I will win it back tonight by riding your super secret formula on the Devils tonight. I will bet 500 gajillion units.
5*10^999999999999999999999 units? 😆
Don’t be jealous of the size of my unit man.
I should consider adding more 9s to my own units xD
But hey, if you bet on Devils, congrats. Seems to go the right way.
Hey Man no need to congratulate me it’s all thanks to your genius and super secret formula.
But I’m getting a little nervous. Are You sure I shouldn’t take Philly now that they’re down 2-0? You Know like you did with Kings earlier today? Current odds +500.
Please respond back ASAP.. score now 2-1 odds now only +230. I’m losing units as we speak.
i smell conspiracy
You think the government is on to us? I can ditch my phone.
We will all die, because the US deployed troops and nuclear bombs everywhere in the world. SOS
You are really rich now. I accept some units if you have too much of them. 😀
yes yes. we’ll discuss that later. for now we must plan on who we like tomorrow.
No need to wait until the game is over I’m quitting my job now. You are full of wise decisions. Many surely doubted you when you didn’t know what a vig was. But not me!
together we’ll be unstoppable. Me with my 500 gajillion units and you….with your 1.
we are destined for great things my friend. I will never forget this day.
Let’s buy USA and China and make Europe and Russia our slaves.
ummm sure….that’s one idea…orrrrrr…..we can just re read my original post and check that math again before you make tomorrow’s post and lose your one unit back.
Then I can go back to “making too much text to make it fast.” Sometimes it wins and sometimes it loses, but I enjoy it.
My math won this one. I will stay confident.👍
I was going to make one more attempt at trying to reach out to you. I’m pretty sure it would fail and most are tired of hearing from me by now. It was going to be quite the rant though I must say.
Instead I will congratulate you. Making picks is not easy and when someone comes out victorious that moment shouldn’t be hijacked by someone else. And I’ve done enough of that to you for one day.
You did ask me in your first response however, if the math and percentages and all the context really matters? And the simple answer is yes. Yes it absolutely matters. For someone who has a betting formula that created a probability for a team’s likelihood to win, Im surprised you would even ask that.
If I’m wrong and you are successful, please don’t use your profits to make anyone your slaves. That’s a terrible idea.
I won’t explain my basic space.
And I told you something really important about betting behavior, because I saw how much thoughts you waste on too many games.
Please keep posting. I get bored quite easily. And something tells me reading the reasons behind your daily plays and the units you wager, will keep me entertained for quite sometime.
Great and thorough answer DeNapos and very well-written.