Written by Graeme on Saturday, February 18th, 2023
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It was a winning night yesterday in spectacular fashion.
We had the Oilers/Rangers game to go over 7 goals. A hefty amount. The Oilers went up 4-1, then incredibly blew that lead and lost 5-4 in a shootout.
Amazing stuff by Edmonton.
Funny to see why the Kings/Ducks game was goalie dependent. Copley was doing a great job prior to being ejected, then Quick comes in and leaks in the goals.
Islanders/Penguins had a banger. I leaned slightly on the Islanders there but with the defensive metrics of both teams it was hard to call and their defenses were a mess last night as expected.
Let’s get on with Saturdays slate. And let’s go Sami Zayn! Ole, Ole, Ole.
Predators vs Panthers:
Preds come in struggling. Panthers come in – eh. Inconsistent. Bookies don’t have Panthers as high favourites as I’d expect – but they know how bloody random the Preds can be.
Can’t take Panthers with their defensive metrics. Over is tempting but you need the Preds to kick in the goals and it looks like their offense hasn’t yet returned from the All Star break. Won’t surprise me if they get going here against the Panthers. I could see this going over and if it was 5.5 or 6 I’d be on it I think but 6.5 is a bit much for hypothetical Preds goals.
Blues vs Avalanche:
First Tarasenko, now O’Reilly. Blues giving up. Yet post all star break they’re in that weird no pressure zone where they’re just killing it. Have to be wary of that.
Avs are kinda getting the results but not in that resounding, confident way. Blues overperforming offensively but the Avs do have weak defensive metrics and rely on goaltending.
Don’t have the confidence in the Avs. I do see a lot of people on them today but I’m wary.
Bruins vs Islanders:
Bruins got a much needed big win over the Preds and come home to host the Islanders, who played yesterday. Bruins offensively should have no problem with the Isles, and should be able to shut them down enough on the D front.
I like this matchup, and the odds are barely there for our betting threshold. Tad wary of the handicap just because the Islanders offense is ticking.
Bruins in Regulation
1.71 at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv and no odds yet at most places but BetOnline. is probably going to be the best ones for Americans and anyone else who can bet there.
(Odds correct as of 2023/02/18 7:38:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Penguins vs Devils:
Neiother team really has my confidence right now for any bets.
Stars vs Blue Jackets:
Dallas are just not worth taking the handicap at the moment based on their current run. Especially with the last few Jackets results.
Leafs vs Canadiens:
Would have to be Leafs -2.5 or backing the Habs. Neither seem appealing. With the inconsistency of the Leafs, and how these games sometimes go, a bet on the Habs probably isn’t the worst thing in the world. By the metrics this is more a one goal game win for the Leafs.
Hurricanes vs Capitals:
I’d love to take the Canes here but outdoor game so nah. Arena game I’d be all over them but generally stay away from the Stadium series games.
Flames vs Rangers:
It’s very similar to yesterdays game. At the moment, you have the faith in the Rangers offense to get it going. Their defense is conceding. Flames are similar to Oilers in that there is games where their offense just dies. By the numbers, this should go over. You just have to be prepared for Calgary to let you down.
B2B for Rangers but didn’t stop the machine against Carolina on the 11th.
Over 6.5 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.95 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/02/18 7:38:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canucks vs Flyers:
Ooof no. Slight lean on the Canucks which the bookies have priced that way.
Knights vs Lightning:
Knights coming in on a nice post all star break run. Tampa coming in off that Coyotes game.
First real big test for the Knights since the break. By the metrics? I don’t hate them honestly. I’d probably price this one as a pickem and so miniscule value on the Knights here.
Kings vs Coyotes:
Kings in regulation is tempting but man – the Coyotes haven’t lost in regulation in their last 7 games. Metrics aren’t overwhelming for Kings in regulation, so it’s a pass.
Kraken vs Red Wings:
Nothing here. Some of the metrics actually point to an upset by the Red Wings. Primarily based on their goals scored and SCGF/60. Basically their offense is overproducing. It’s iffy whether that continues against Seattle or not. If you’re looking for a dog to bet today, Wings are probably the best one.
Sharks vs Sabres:
Neither team really inspiring at the moment. The metrics lean slightly towards Buffalo but the Sharks are creating a lot of good chances and Buffalos goaltending stats are a concern. No bet.
Boston regulation -150
NYI play less than 24 hours later after a comeback win in which they lost all the metrics pretty handily. Islanders can be a tough out and they’ve already lost the first two matchups to Boston 4-3 and 4-1. But this is a tough spot for them. Aside from Varlamov standing on his head, this one is teed up for Boston as they can’t get a much better situation than this.
Florida Tkachuk to score +125
This is one of two picks I struggled to choose between Tkachuk or taking Verhaeghe at +150. I think the only goal scorer I’ve hit on this week was Kyle Connor yesterday at +115, and it’s been a full week since I enjoyed the Tarasenko and Guentzel both cashing. Hoping with this and my Tampa Bay pick I backed the right guys as it can get tough when trying to narrow them down.
Tampa Bay Kucherov to score +180
It was between him and Stamkos at +145. I’m hoping they keep Stamkos and Kucherov on separate lines because I feel Kucherov becomes too much of a passer when they are paired together. Similar to Colorado keeping Rantanen away from Mackinnon because Mackinnon tends to shoot everything and is high volume dependent in order to be successful.
Recently not much has jumped out to me as far as sides and totals and the work schedule has made it difficult to go through metrics during the week as I would typically do with more time. Hence why I’ve gone with more goal scorer picks rather than sides recently, it’s less time consuming. Of course the one day I do have some time, and it’s a 13 game slate lol.
Just some notes though. Thought about the Devils especially with Pittsburgh just playing and blowing the game to the Islanders yesterday. To dominate the stats, have the lead and not even come away with a point is a brutal loss. And they’ve had quite a few this year. Now tied in points with the Islanders and just barely holding on to a wild card spot. The one positive is the Penguins do have games in hand as opposed to most of the teams fighting to take that spot. I saw Hughes is supposed to be back for the Devils and they were able to navigate his injury. The only thing kept me off is I see Jarry listed but not confirmed to potentially start for the Penguins. Maybe someone has more info than me. If Jarry does indeed return here it’s a stay away for me. Any other goaltender for the Penguins and I’m tempted to take the Devils -125 ML or even +125 in regulation. NJ 1st game of a back to back so interested to see if Hughes gets his full ice time here.
Also thought about Carolina in regulation if Ovechkin is still out for Washington. At -125 might be worth the risk even with the outdoor game and ice surface if theoretically both teams have to play on it. But i can get just simply skipping it as well.
Colorado will be starting Justus Annunen in net today. 2:00 start today then travel back home to face Edmonton 3:00 tomorrow. Once again why Georgiev at 26 years old is incapable of playing against a depleted St. Louis team and then Edmonton the next day, when they don’t play again until Friday the 24th, is just odd to me.
Toronto starts Joseph Woll vs Montreal. His first attempt at an “Easy” win the Blue Jackets refused to play along. Putting up 40 shots and 4 past him, so this will be attempt number two. And fresh off the O’Reilly and Acciari trade. How about Toronto with the murders row of Columbus, Columbus, Chicago, Montreal, Chicago. Bet they circled that on their calendars when the NHL released the schedules.
I believe 7 teams that play today also play again tomorrow. And 5 teams that played yesterday have matchups today. Just something to keep in mind.
Nothing for me today, I refuse to stretch to find a bet in the second half of a season in any sport. I’m expecting LA and the Rangers to win but as Graeme has noted above, such things are not gravy. Not taking the Rangers/Flames OVER, because the Flames are often incapable of scoring and the high power Rangers on a back-to-back may find themselves early in the second period starting to shut things down to protect their lead.
Decent day today so I’m going to take a bit of a longer shot on Buffalo Okposo to score +360.