Written by Graeme on Sunday, February 18th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
Alas, the Winnipeg Jets discovered their shooting boots (or skates) yesterday, and managed to put 4 past the Canucks in what was quite the day of hockey.
That’s the second day in the past 10 days where it just feels like so many games are out of bizarro world and I am glad I came through it relatively unscathed with just the one loss.
It’s Sunday. We’ve got an NHL Stadium Series game and then two other games. Let’s see if anything:
Islanders vs Rangers:
Never really back these. Nothing really standing out in the metrics anyway.
Penguins vs Kings:
Kings on the B2B after that Bruins banger. Not really seeing anything here as the metrics are a bit all over the place.
Avs vs Coyotes:
Would have to be Avs -1.5. Coming in off that big Tampa loss. Coyotes are dismal at the moment.
It’s a bit concerning with how the Avs are conceding at the moment. The worst part of it is it’s expected. GA/60 of 3.69, xGA/60 of 3.67. That is bad.
Coyotes offense slumping last couple games. But that is against teams with decent xGA/60 and GA/60.
Makes it a bit too tricky to call. I could argue for the Avs -1.5, but I could also actually argue for the over. A lot depends on how the Coyotes offense perform.
I’m not sure, so it’s a no bet for me.
Units now: +1.06 woohoo 🥳
I take New York Rangers ML @ 1.63 with 1 unit, because the Islanders are far away from an island.
Similarly I’ll take Rangers -1.0
Let’s go!
Colorado MacKinnon to score -125
The price is a bit on the higher side for a goal scorer prop. But I’m kinda looking at it as cheaper way to get Avs to win.
Looking at Mac’s splits, he’s scored 21 goals in 25 Home games. With 25 of his 32 goals coming in Colorado wins. So this is a decent correlation in how much Avs rely on MacKinnon for success.
He is on a current 5 game goal drought. But this was also during a 6 game road trip, where he tends to score less.
Colorado has had 4 road trips of 3 games or longer so far on the season. In the first game back home after those extended road trips, MacKinnon has been able to score in 3 of the 4.
The biggest decision for me was whether to take Nate on a current slump, or Rantanen. They are both going at similar prices. Mikko also has an even better correlation of goals scored in Colorado’s wins. 26 of Mikko’s 29 goals have been in Avalanche wins. His home road split is a bit more balanced as well.
MacKinnon will have good reason to be up for this game. The Avs do have a comfortable 10 point lead over 4th place. But this is the first game at home for them this month. And their current record stands at 1-4-1 in February. The four games after will be Vancouver, Detroit, Toronto, and Dallas.
They also get to face Vejmelka today which could help both Nate and Rantanen’s chances to score. Arizona has also won 2 of 3 from Colorado on the season. Both wins coming in OT.
I’ll be looking for MacKinnon to get the crowd going, when the Avs return home, for one of their more favorable matchups so far this month.
MacKinnon to score -125