Written by Graeme on Saturday, February 1st, 2025
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A 1-0 win last night with the Preds/Sabres going over, and that was a nice and easy one as it was a winner by halfway through the 2nd period.
Always nice when you don’t have to stress that.
Interesting seeing the Jackets get that W yesterday. Like I said – those odds just didn’t seem right.
It’s Saturday and our a slightly smaller slate with 9 games on the board. Man – give me MORE of that please. What a great way to start off the month.
Panthers vs Blackhawks
Inconsistent Panthers host the Blackhawks and are ridiculous favourites. Just looking at botht eams results I wouldn’t touch that -1.5. Metrics – yeah they don’t really support it. IF the Panthers offense was producing consistently, they would go towards the -1.5. The xG stats do as does Corsi etc.
I think they’ll cover that but – especially at 1.71 odds – I’ll pass.
Bruins vs Rangers
Bookies have this at almsot a flip. Bruins come in after two big losses. Rangers also two losses.
Metrics are….interesting. Rangers better Corsi & Fenwick. Bruins scoring more but conceding a LOT more. xG leans the Rangesr way a fair amount.
Maaan – this almost seems like a play on the Rangers is justified. Let’s see – Bruins solid at home but Rangers decent away. Bruins do have McAvoy back which is a boost – even though it didn’t work out against Winnipeg.
They played January 2nd and Rangers got the tight 2-1 win.
I think I’m going to pass. The Rangers offense are just a bit too high variant at the moment. If they come out flying then so be it. If I was getting slightly better odds I think I’d take them. Like 2.10 I’d be on it. Plus backing a team on a two game skid who just got shut out isn’t really on my betting NHL bingo card.
Think this is one I’ll wake up tomorrow regretting not playing.
Hurricanes vs Kings
Canes come steamrolling in – well, sorta. Some big wins and some tight ones. Looking to pound the LA Kings who are struggling hard and just got shut out back to back.
The Kings offense has been pitiful lately. I generally love the Canes. This is one where I don’t even want to look at the metrics or anything else – I just want to back them in regulation and be done with it.
But let’s see – well better Corsi & Fenwick, obviously scoring a lot more and conceding a lot less. Creating more, better xGA. Better SCGF stats. All the boxes are checked.
Canes a beast at home. Kings below .500 on the road.
Every box is checked. Really the only concern is the odds – I’d expect Carolina to be even more heavily favoured. But if the Kings pull off an upset – and to me this would be a BIG upset – then that’s the joy of betting hockey. You just have to roll with it.
But Canes in Regulation is an easy bet for me.
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -110 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/02/01 8:41:52 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Wild
Unlike the above one, this is one where I look at and think “eh I want to move on” as soon as I look at the incoming form. Bookies have Sens as fairly strong favourites here. Eh. Data makes it all very tough. I’d lean Sens for sure but maybe not that high but yeah nothing for me.
Penguins vs Predators
Nothing here.
Lightning vs Islanders
Tampa coming off the win over the Kings but they are too heavily favoured for me to even consider based on recent performances. And hell look at the Islanders run right now. This seems like a “name value” odds setting more than anything else.
Tampa do have better CF% & FF%. Better xGF% too. Huh. I’ll be honest I thought this was one where I’d have to take the Islanders due to the price – but the metrics aren’t supporting that at all. Islanders gonna come crashing down soon and this could be the night. I’d be avoiding them at all costs for the next little while unless you get a decent price for a dog against them.
Oilers vs Leafs
Definite lean on the Oilers here. Actually, looking at the metrics, an in-regulation play might have to happen. But let’s see.
CF& about the same, Oilers very slightly better FF% and SF%. Scoring more, conceding less by a decent amont, xG stats are very similar.
Bleh – I was hoping to pass on this one, but with the data I have to go with Oilers in Regulation.
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/02/01 8:41:52 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Capitals vs Jets
I’m fine passing on this one. By the data, I think I’d lean Jets but on the road affects that a bit, plus heavy goalie variance.
Red Wings vs Flames
Passing on this one too. Odds seem how I’d price it. Wings can be a high variance team.
Back as a Ranger JT Miller to score anytime and to score two or more goals