Written by Graeme on Friday, February 26th, 2016
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We went 2-2 last night.
We had the Islanders to beat the Flames and they did just that in a tight one. It was a great game to watch and very intense and an awesome winning goal from Bailey after some great play by Tavares.
The other New York team also came through for us as the underdog Rangers defeated the St. Louis Blues. Props to the Blues who despite a lot of injuries really fought well and came together. Lundqvist came up big in that game as well.
We lost with the Blackhawks against the Predators. Rinne had a tremendous game and even though Chicago beat him once to go up 1-0, they couldn’t do it again and the Predators bounced back strong. The Blackhawks picked up Andrew Ladd yesterday and he’ll be a huge signing for them – good to see him back in Chicago and that’s really going to strengthen their cup hopes.
We also had the Dallas Stars to beat the Winnipeg Jets but the Jets came out just on FIRE and were up 3-0 at the end of the first. The Stars clawed a couple back but when Enstrom made it 4-2 you could really see the wind come out of the Stars. Interesting that they do something like that AFTER trading Andrew Ladd.
Andrew Ladd clearly cursed us yesterday.
A quieter Friday night in the NHL with 5 games. Let’s get to it:
Ducks vs Oilers Betting Tips:
The Oilers are a team I’m always wary of picking against. I mean who can blame me – it’s hard to bet against a team that has 25 #1 draft picks in their line up. But their performances lately have been nothing sort of embarassing. Yeah there’s a bit of fight to them but a “bit of fight” isn’t what Edmonton fans need – especially when you have someone like McDavid in the team. If Edmonton aren’t careful he’s going to end up like Yak – completely ruined.
Coming off their loss last night, the Oilers visit Anaheim for a tough game. The Ducks beat Edmonton 10 days ago while on the road and have had very solid performances since coming home from that trip. They dominated the Flames and and then had a solid defensive performance against the Sabres.
Ducks have a solid record of covering the spread at home and we’ll be taking Ducks -1.5 tonight.
Canada: 2.18 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: +115 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 2.18 Odds at 888 Sports.
Wild vs Capitals Betting Tips:
It’s an interesting time for the Wild. They changed coaches and suddenly everything was good again. They beat 4 teams, just firing in the goals and everyone was singing their praises.
However I said prior to the Islanders game that you can’t count on them. While the Western Canada trip is a tough one, you’re still talking about 3 of the worst teams in the NHL, and then a freak game against the Blackhawks.
They lost to the Islanders and they then lost to a Giroux-less Flyers. Now they’re going up against the best team in the NHL.
A few days ago I would have stayed away from this game. However after the Montreal loss I expect the Capitals to bounce back strong here.
Capitals in Regulation.
Canada: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -135 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
Sharks vs Sabres Betting Tips:
This is an interesting one.
A lot of people like to bet based on trends. However the sportsbooks don’t seem to factor that in at all when it comes to the NHL, especially for this game. The Sabres are a huge price going up against the Sharks – a team they beat 8 times in a row prior to November, when the Sharks won a tight 2-1 game.
The odds are too good here not to take the Sabres tonight. On the road, the Sabres have one of the best SOG and should be able to make a game of it. I’d take them all the way down to(and including) 2.90.
It’s not a pick that’s going to win over 50% of the time but it’s a pick that will win enough to make it a nice play for value.
Sabres to win.
Canada: 3.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
USA: +196 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 3.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
And on a much quieter night for the NHL games, be sure to check out our comment section which is full of great comments, opinions, tips and banter. It’s been a blast to read this season.
loving the Buffalo pick!
Hey everybody,
Lovely write ups again guys!
Tonight my picks are:
Tampa
Caps (OT)
Bruins
Sabres (OT)
Ducks
I’ll expect Tampa, Boston and Anaheim to win in regulation. For Washington and buffalo I’m not quite sure, these games could get tight in the end and will find a winner in OT or a shootout.
For over/under bets I would go like this:
Wild under
Anaheim Over
Ducks Over
Bruins Under
Tampa over
Best of luck to all of you and cheers!
Anaheim and ducks both over lol. At least your consistent.
Haha
Hahahaha yeah I messed it up
Lets make some money!
Bruins, Ducks, Sabres and Devils.
Reinhart, Silfverberg and Enrique to score in regulation.
Yeah it was a rough night, one that always seem to come around the trade deadline. Reason for that is the ‘switch’ gets turned on (or off i guess) for many teams that have been on the playoff hunt but struggled doing so. For example the Jets gave up Ladd yesterday (+ Little injury) which officially means they’ve given up. What does that mean? They suddenly win against a team that’s been dominating them. In other words they are playing without any pressure, have fun out there and when you do that the results will often come even if you don’t dominate the game. Mental side of things are a huge factor in hockey and at this time of the year it takes over in a positive way for many teams. So what im saying is, for a lot of teams recent stats can be thrown out of the window. Columbus is playing great, Vancouver is starting to win again, Flames looked a lot better. You get my drift.
On the other hand teams like the Devils, Coyotes and Hurricanes will have a tough time. They’ve been playing well this year but still have to win pretty much every game from here on out to make the playoffs. Frustration will kick in easily if they don’t get the results.
From betting-point of view it’s tough to transition from making the bets that make the most sense-to bold picks that are almost solely based on human element.
Challenge for me (and all of us i guess) is to adapt and start making more bold picks. I personally have been struggling in the last 20 regular season games for many years in a row now, so for me it’s a personal challenge.
There’s still a lot of games where both teams really need the win, but you really have to keep an eye out for these teams that are out of it and just go out there and play. I mean, when you’re not afraid to lose that makes your chances of winning A LOT better.
That being said it was a very unlucky night yesterday as well. the Wild had 2 wide open net chances to tie it up and couldn’t do it. Coyotes hit the crossbar 3 times before the Panthers took the lead and ran away with it. I could go on and on. But, you have to respect the results and go from there.
Props to Lion for being on a hot streak recently. I’ve been following his picks and he seems to be making a lot of picks based on the human element (who has the least pressure vs who _needs_ the win) and because of this his picks are especially good this time of the year. They might seem like they don’t make much sense, but that’s how you get those surprise picks (and good odds) earlier in the season too. This time of the year they are more frequent, and he seems to pick them really well, so keep an eye out if you already haven’t 😉
Going to post my picks later tonight.
Arto, thank you for sharing your thoughts. Like you, I’ve been frustrated by not being rewarded for my analysis based on history and stats. The human element is so important in this sport where on any given night the worst team in the league can beat the best team. Indeed, it seems that the best teams often take teams that are inferior on paper less seriously and pay the price. Along with an easing of the grip on the stick for teams that are out of it, I think the teams that know they have a lock are perhaps a little more complacent, which translates into coming out flat and falling behind quickly (Stars last night). One thing that none of us really have is an insight into the lockerroom. Having played hockey my entire life, I know that the chemistry of the team is critical to success. A team that likes one another and respects its coach and player leaders will bring a higher compete level. I think we have seen this with the Wild recently, who started winning after dumping Yeo. One can’t ignore the impact that the veteran leaders have on the younger players: they set an example which the whole team follows. If the young guys, who are still chasing pussy and going out the night before games, aren’t disciplined it brings a whole team down. We saw this in Boston with Seguin and Marchand, before they got their shit together.
I’m relatively new to betting hockey (2-3 years) and have been humbled by the lack of logic and patterns. When I turn to careful analysis of trends, I just seem to be laughed at by the hockey gods. I’m open to any approach (lion) that will put my bankroll on the positive side.
Having said that, here are my thoughts for today:
Bolts-Devils over – the over is 4 of last 5 for both teams. Bolts are well rested and will come out fresh and hard. They have a play-off spot now, but a couple of teams are nipping at their heels. This is a team that I think has good discipline and is determined to win. Regardless of who is in net for Devils, I think they have a tough time tonight.
Bolts ML – Bolts win for the reasons above and because Devils will have heavy legs and heads after getting spanked by CBJ and getting home late.
Bruins ML – As a fan of the Bs, I was down on them earlier in the season where it seemed they didn’t have the heart to win. That seems to have turned around, especially when they are on the road. Bs are coming off a dominating win vs Pens at home and have a days rest on Canes. After losing to an inferior team in Toronto last night and getting home late, the Canes are going to struggle to get in the groove. Lack will get the start and you never know what you’ll get, but he hasn’t played in over a week and will be game rusty. I think the Bs lead all the way and it might even be worth a small PL bet for value.
No value in Caps, but I see them winning all the way.
Ducks -1.5 – I like this because they are 4.4 GF in last 5 while Oilers are 1.8 GA in last 5. Anders Nilsson has lost last 8 games and in those games his GAA is 5+. Oilers are depleted emotionally and physically. This should be a blow-out unless the Ducks decide to take the night off. Which, as we discussed above, is certainly a possibility.
Also like these bets for same reason:
Ducks over 3.5
Ducks-Oilers over 5
Ducks -.5 first
Ducks-Oilers over 1.5 first
Sabres ML – Again, for the reasons discussed above, I think the Sabres could take it to the Sharks. The Sharks have played well since the AS break, but they are only 16-15 vs teams with losing records and we know the Sabres bring it every night. I’m not mortgaging the house for this bet, but I like it.
I like these score first bets:
Bolts
Bruins
Sabres
Let’s hope the hockey gods are smiling on us today. good luck boys
Love the insightful prose, Bruin. Nicely done!
I started to follow you guys since the last 3 months and even if I don’t bet everyday, I read all the time your post. You are by far better than guys on sports (Quebec) TV
Yep, agree with everything you said. People often say the NHL is one of the toughest leagues to predict consistently because you never know how the games turn out no matter what teams play. But that’s also what makes it great to watch & and gives us the opportunity to go for the underdogs almost every night.
That being said im leaning towards the underdogs having a tough time tonight as well.
Good luck with your picks 🙂
I was just about to post what arto said – hockey in general is one of the toughest sports to accurately predict. There’s a lot of variance, and it can be extremely frustrating at times.
The one thing I’d say SanDiegoBruins is to never stop learning – never stop looking into new factors etc. Think about passing thoughts you’ve had in games and start to apply them to your bets etc.
I always feel that losses and missed opportunities are the best way to learn and give me reminders. I mean when we came out of the all star break we were killing it with the tips and went on a ridiculous streak. Everything we expected and thought about was happening and that was awesome – but in terms of long-term betting for the future it didn’t help that much.
But the losses and missed opportunities I always take as learning experiences and it helps us be better in the future.
For example a few days ago – Wild vs Islanders. I had written about how I couldn’t trust the Wild(and wrote it again just today) and why. However there was a missed opportunity there because we should have tipped the other side. I believe it was Arto that I was responding to and saying I liked his Islanders in regulation pick and then I was kicking myself for not tipping it that day.
Then Capitals vs Canadiens the other night. We went with the Capitals in regulation and lost. However I’ve been going on about the Capitals and complacency for the last few games now. I could have never justified the Canadiens on that night – but I should have been more wary of the Capitals. I may still have made the pick – but it was a good reminder of complacency and how usually when you see it setting in you know a teams going to lose(or luck out in OT) and that reminder will help out in the future.
And hey you’re new to betting – I’ve been betting for 20 years and betting sports was my actual job for years and I’ll still make wrong calls, miss opportunities etc. It happens.
Like you said – morale and team chemistry etc is a big factor and that’s where you have to throw out the statistics. That’s where human input and experience will help you out – a large part of the Caps tip tonight is more based on a hunch(and their history this season) for example – that their heads won’t go down.
Just take some time each morning and analyze the previous games. Not just the ones you bet on but the ones you didn’t bet on. Did you miss an opportunity there? Did you make the right call staying away? That sort of thing.
Good luck. Right or wrong your bets are always well written and well thought out and that’s always a good sign you’re on the right track.
Graeme
So one thing I learned already:
If the game would only be the first 20 minutes, the caps would be at the bottom of the league. Haven’t had a shot for 9:30 mins straight and now they’re 0-1 down again.
So next time I’ll bet on scores first and take the opponent team 😉
Do you guys like TAYLOR HALL 3 shots or under
PERRON 2 OR MORE SHOTS
Yakupov 2 or more shots
ANAHEIM – EDMONTON 2-1
BOSTON
JESREY
WSHINGTON -1.5
Jersey – tampa 2-4
Tonight picks,
Canes %100
Devils %80
Adrenalin,
Oilers %65
Good luck!
So what makes you side with the Devils on this one just want to know your take on that one
They are playing for first 8 and they really have serious rivals on that way. Lighnings one of them ? either you win or win. No other chance in such games.
Man my gut was right , but I’ll be damn these caps are gonna screw it all up for me wish I would have never touched that damn game fuuuck
Never lose faith. Now are you happy? Hahaha
Yes it didnt go how I wanted ?
But there is hope for these caps but tonight just not lookin good at all
Why Canes 100%? No one is catching Caps, but after them it’s a horse race to the end of the season. In the East, there are only 6 pts between 6 teams who currently have spots inc WC. Both Tampa and Boston are looking at a 4 pt swing if they lose in reg. I think they’ll be pretty motivated.
Boston Win today !
1st night I decide to go with your bets lol. I jinxed you. Went against my bruins guess I deserve it. Made my bet back live bet though. I bet bruins over 3.5 with 4 min left. Empty net good.
I could’ve sworn you also had the Sabres? Did you edit that out? Anyway, back up on the horse you go. Shit happens once in a while 🙂
I just have to go Bruins ML (1.80) tonight. Carolina is still one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to their roster, despite playing well this year. Without Faulk they’re just that much worse. If the Canes were fully healthy i’d lean towards them just outworking the Bruins tonight, but sometimes too much is too much. Boston is playing well and they can score a lot of goals at the moment. The amount of work Carolina has to put into scoring a goal should be significant while the B’s can strike at any time – i find it hard for the Canes to stay on top on the scoresheet in a 60 minute game, especially when the Bruins have the edge in goaltending also. Over 5 is another option im considering.
Same story with the Sharks. Loss of O’Reilly is huge for the Sabres. He’s the motor for that team and the main reason they can win hockey games against any team. Right now they’re just so outmatched against the Sharks that it’s tough to ignore. Sharks want to bounce back and they’ve been playing well. I think it’ll be a close game but my pick is San Jose in regulation. Could be one of those games that are decided in the last 10 minutes.
The other games are more tricky. Ducks have no value to me and the Devils scare me a bit (as do the Bolts focus on that game). But im going to hop on board with Graeme’s prediction on the Caps. Makes sense.
Funny how i just posted a long read on how the underdogs are more dangerous this time of the year and im going for the favorites only. We’ll see if it ends up costing me or not, but just doesn’t feel like the type of night where we’d have too many surprises.
GL!
Arto, I share your reasoning on Bs: I’ll be surprised if they come out flat in this game. They seem to love being in someone else’s building.
You’re probably right about Sharks, but it’s fun to take the underdog once in a while. I have a small bet on Sabres, who you can never count out.
There is no value in Ducks SU but if you look at puckline, first period or prop bets there is definitely some value to be found. They are shooting against perhaps the worst goalie in the league tonight. Seriously. I wouldn’t be surprised if they make the over by themselves.
I have to respect Lion’s success rate, but a part of me hopes he has an off night
Yea I took the bruins also great chemistry right now
Yeah it was a good night. I went with Tampa too in the last minute, i mean they were in a 4 game winning streak and just so much better than the Devils. Thought there was a very good chance they wouldn’t want to waste their winning streak on the Devils.
Also Caps live after 2nd periods when they were trailing, some luck on the Orlov goal but yesterday was so unlucky i’ll take it 🙂
Funny how hockey is sometimes, lose a big chunk of money one night and win it all back the next.
For tonight my bets are as follows.
Canes M.L
Sabers M.L also 2 to 1 great odds
Devils M.L
MIN vs CAPS over 5
3 way M.L parlay Caps, Canes and Ducks
Good luck all!
My picks for tonight;
Bruins ML;
Canes are playing quite well lately but after only playing and losing to the low Maple Leafs last night they have to be physically and mentally tired. Normally playing at home after such a setback is perfect to bounce back but unfortunately for the Canes they face the Bruins who have been phenomenal on the road this season. They will have to give it 100% in order to win this game and in my opinion I don’t think they have enough fuel left in the tank to pull it off. Bruins all day long for me.
Ducks RT;
This game doesn’t need much explaining. Ducks are trying to push their win streak to 7 games against a team that has only won 7 games on the road all season. Ducks have extra incentive in front of a home crowd as well as the fact they are relentlessly heading toward top spot in the Pacific division. I never feel confident when playing games in regulation but this game could be easy for them. That being said, I can’t bring myself to back -1.5.
Ducks in REG — Ducks have dominated an Oilers team that knows it needs to keep losing to better their draft position. Edm horrible on the road. Anaheim looking motivated to taking over the top seed in the west.
Carolina ML– Call me silly, but this could be Staal’s last game as a Cane. Canes obviously weren’t interested in the Maple Leafs and we’re looking forward to this game. Now Boston is a very talented team that is terrific on the road, but I think Bruins come out flat (stand alone road game) and drop a close game here. Boston also has a home date vs Tampa looming on Sunday and may take he Canes a little light here. Wish Ward were in net for Carolina but I still feel this is their night.
Sabres…almost have to take them as value and because of their penchant to playing the Sharks well. But without O’Reilly, I just can’t put the money down here.
Anyone have thoughts on SJ/Buff total? I’m leaning under with Jones in net and maybe a lack of offense by Buff. Please convince me.
GL!
Under is 3-0-2 in Sabres last 5 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 4-0 in Sabres last 4 vs. Pacific.
heeey everybody ! 🙂 any tips for games that “should” go over 3.5 goals?? 🙂 thanx ! sometimes I play combo’s/tripples ..
Surprised to Ward in net for Canes. Both teams coming out strong so far. Kucherov back for Bolts.
does it look good for over/under? 🙂 when u say both start strong U mean fast skating/start from both teams?
Both teams pressing, up and down game
appreciate it !
I’ve really enjoyed the comments section that past couple days. Lots of good discussion going on and very informative opinions.
Here’s what I’ve got tonight:
Bruins ML – I like the Bruins to win tonight. I feel like the Canes are going through a bit of uncertainty with a couple of their players and the deadline approaching. Boston seems poised to solidify their playoff position and have been great on the road.
Caps @ -1.5 – It is always tough to bet against the Caps. Much has been said about the Wild coming back down to earth and I think Keumper(sp?) is starting for the Wild as well, which can open the firing line for the Caps. Traditionally tight matches, but I expect a lot of goals in this one.
Devils ML – I heard Cammer is going to be out the rest of the season for the Devils, but Schneid’s always seems to come back with a good game after a stinker. Its going to be a low scoring tight checking game which I think works in the Devils favor.
Ducks @ -1.5 – My write up deleted here but … Ducks!
Sharks ML – Every possible trend is showing Buffalo to win this game and I’m a big pattern guy. Gambler’s fallacy is maybe hurting me here, but there is no way the Sabres can have the Sharks’ number for so long. It is going to be a low scoring affair, but the Sharks will win tonight.
Good luck … keep the tips coming!
good start to the night. so far 4-0 (Bs score 1st, Bs win period, Bolts score 1st, Bolts period). Let’s hope the rest of the night goes as well.
3 from 4. Not bad. Not bad at all.
Amazing! Buffalos tasty.
I went again my way but this time it didnt work at all.
All the applauses for Buffalos pick.
Good job!