Written by Graeme on Sunday, February 26th, 2023
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1-1 yesterday.
The Habs xGF and Sens SCGA/60 ended up becoming a problem as they were only able to muster up 2 goals. Thankfully, Ottawa lit them up and were able to put it over.
And as I said yesterday: “That’s one thing to always remember about Calgary – their offense can go to sleep at a moments notice it seems”. Actually to be fair they had a lot of chances. An xG of 4.38 for the Flames so really just bad variance there and great goaltending.
Let’s get into Sundays 7:
Sabres vs Capitals:
Buffalo coming in off the win against Florida. Washington finally came to life with a big win over the New York Rangers. Hard to have any sort of confidence in the Caps of course, and I don’t feel good about Buffalo at their odds. They concede way too much.
Wild vs Blue Jackets:
Wild hosting the Jackets. Would have to be -1.5. They had that tight 2-0 win over them on the 23rd. That was the first time they have covered the handicap since January 17th. Jackets have been playing well. No bet here.
Jets vs Islanders:
I mean you just can’t back the Jets here. But the advanced metrics show they should be doing better, while the Islanders are overperforming and easy to see it flip flopping here. No bet.
Rangers vs Kings:
Rangers not a team you really want to back at the moment unless it’s the Glasgow kind (hopefully that ages well). Curious now they are back at home if their fortunes change for the better.
Metrics actually point to this one being high scoring. Both teams scoring over 3.5 and conceding in average of about 3.30. Both taking their chances. Lindgren apparently out as well.
The Rangers offense after a couple of duds woke up yesterday. To be fair their xG the two prior games was still really high.
Think there is enough to go with the over here. Copley is a bit of a concern – when we have backed the Kings this season it’s been dependent on him being in net. But I think the Rangers should be able to get past him enough to help put this one over.
Over 6 goals incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.93 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -107 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.93 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/02/26 10:46:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Penguins vs Lightning:
Penguins not doing well at the moment. Tampa it’s really hard to say. The Pens xGF metrics are through the roof. Penguins biggest issues right now are conceding goals. Brutal GA/60, SCGA/60, xGA/60.
So Tampa should light them up and it’s whether the Pens can return the favour. They’ve only managed to score 2 goals in regulation in each of their last 4 ames.
Tampa really aren’t a team you can back on the 2nd leg of a B2B.
This is one of those where I do like the over, but I am hunting around for that one extra thing to convince me and it’s just not happening.
Coyotes vs Predators:
Game is probably closer than the odds reflect. Preds scoring slightly more but also conceding slightly more. Coyotes goaltending helping them out compared to their xG. Won’t surprise me in the least if Arizona win. Especially with Johansen out.
Coyotes did just beat Nashville on the 13th as well on the road.
Basically don’t hate a bet on teh Coyotes here but just feels too much of a gamble to actually advise. One I am happy to bet as I feel there is value on them.
Kraken vs Leafs:
Seattle come in on a couple of losing games. Leafs had that tight win over the Wild. Good to see Keefe address their overtime situation.
Kraken are a bit mixed on defensive metrics. Leafs really shouldn’t have an issue with them though.
Not really feeling teh Leafs here enough to back them in regulation.
TBL is 18-7 this season when rest is equal and they’ve won 6 straight games when both teams are on no rest.
I saw Quick was being confirmed for the Kings today not Copley. Just to update.
Minnesota Boldy +190
Taking another shot on Boldy here vs Columbus. Once again some concern it could potentially be Eriksson Ek. Boldy’s went 12 games with out a goal and is averaging 3.5 shots per game during that span. Gets to face Merzlikins today.
Rangers Chytil to score +185
and
LA Kings Kempe to score +180
Couldn’t decide between the two. Hesitated on Kempe because he might still have some regressing to do. The Rangers goaltenders are struggling with save percentages currently making it tough for me to ignore. If Kempe doesn’t score here and in the following game at Winnipeg, I’ll look to play on him in the beginning of March. The Kings get the Canadiens and Blues at home to start the month. Kempe won’t be as high as +180 but should still be plus money.
Lot of choices with the Rangers. Thought about Zibanejad at +130. Same issue with Kempe though as there could still be more regression for Mika to go thru. Really thought about betting Adam Fox +400. But I think he might still have a few more games to go. Maybe vs Philly or Boston.
With Chytil his season shooting percent of 16.1 is way above his career average of 10.2 and last years 5.9. However, seeing how he’s still early in his career, 6 years in the NHL and he’s still only 23. So I’m leaning more on his monthly shooting percentage splits. He’s had two 12.5% months in November and December, bookended by 22.2 and 25 percent in January. Currently in February he’s shooting at 10.3, his lowest of the season. 8 games without a goal averaging about 3 shots per during that span. The drought has potential to continue based on opportunities and all the Rangers scoring options.But getting +185 vs Quick and his .854 save percentage in the 7 games he’s played in 2023, was too hard for me to pass up on.