Written by Graeme on Thursday, February 29th, 2024
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No bets yesterday. Oilers were able to scrape the win over the Blues, and the Rangers got a big 4-1 win over the Blue Jackets.
It’s the usual busy Thursday. Then we enter March, where the latter weeks can be very tricky. You have teams who have made the playoffs and just don’t care. Others who need to win to make the playoffs but cannot win to save themselves. I think it was the Panthers last year who did us dirty a few times in that situation.
The trade deadline is March 8th. Hopefully some big moves.
Let’s look at Thursdays game I am tight for time due to it being my busiest time of the month work wise so I’ll be short for a few of these.
Leafs vs Coyotes:
Leafs coming in off that big loss to the Knights. The referee decisions didn’t help too much in that game either. We would have to back Leafs -1.5 against a spicy Coyotes team who have a ticking offense at the moment.
So let’s see – CF% is the same, FF% is slightly in Leafs favour but a better SF%. GF% stats are waaay in that favour. xG…..not as much. It makes a bit close.
Buuut the way both teams are performing, and particularly the odds, I feel this is a play. Leafs I would rate at above 50% to cover. Empty net stats are generally in favour of this as well.
Leafs -1.5
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Intertops.
USA: +105 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Intertops.
(Odds correct as of 2024/02/29 10:23:53 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Lightning vs Sabres:
I’m fine not betting anything involving Tampa at the moment.
Blue Jackets vs Hurricanes:
Not taking Canes -1.5 on the road at the moment based on current form.
Panthers vs Canadiens:
Not enough confidence in the Panthers to cover the spread based on recent results. Metrics lean towards it but not worth it at the price.
Red Wings vs Islanders:
Based on the results, I was hoping to take Red Wings here but the advanced metrics don’t back it up. Islanders with better xGF. It’s more a case of the Red Wings offense taking their chances, and a couple of anomaly results in there that makes their goalscoring look better than it is.
Ooof no.
Predators vs Wild:
I didn’t realize just how good a run the Preds were on. Seems to have came out of nowhere. Now they host the Minnesota Wild who have also been performing well.
Preds actually have a worse GA/60 over the last 10 than the Wild. And I mean the Wild conceded 7 against the Canucks! This is an interesting one. I think the Preds run might end here from looking at the metrics – but you never know how much a streak affects a team.
Stars vs Jets:
Nothing here.
Blackhawks vs Avs:
Nothing.
Canucks vs Kings:
Two struggling teams. Not seeing anything in the data that suggests a play.
Kraken vs Penguins:
Another one that looks very close and not seeing anything.
Sharks vs Ducks:
And yep nothing for this one.
I have little time for this today, but to WIN moneyline seems like risky gravy in Florida*. The Toronto moneyline seems interesting, but red flagged because it’s Toronto, a non-Conference game against NHL-pretending Arizona, nobody will care about that game on or off the ice, and the Leafs may win 7-2 or email in a loss and be quite justified in doing so.
Florida is on a roll but Montreal presents a “best vs worst” scenario. Habs goal differential is -44 and Florida’s is +52. As in Toronto, this could become a 7-2 wipeout, or Florida may email in a loss. Florida has the luxury of not being desperate for points on any night.
Keep an eye on Vancouver, as a Pettersson extension may be signed soon, and their rollercoaster fortunes may stabilize after that? Trade anxieties are running hot on many teams. LA is really not tuned up, but neither are the Canucks right now. Can’t bet that mess.
Dallas just picked up Tanev from Calgary, but not sure if he’ll be playing for the Stars tonight. Tanev will help drop the goals against and aid the transitions out of the D zone and into the O zone, for Dallas. Dallas’ offense has dried up recently, so not touching that mess before it clears up.
Today there are really tough decisions. It does not really feel good whatever I pick.
Im so disappointed by Dalas (as always) that I need to take Winnipeg ML @ 2.15 with 5 units.