Written by Graeme on Sunday, February 2nd, 2025
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Well sometimes you lose due to variance, and sometimes you lose due to – checks notes – the entire team you bet on being a gametime freaking decision?
Yes that’s what we experienced yesterday with the Hurricanes, with Rod coming out yesterday and saying that the entire team was questionable to play. That was fun. Nothing we could do there.
Oilers/Leafs was what it was. I knew that one could be ridiculous going into it. Data was just too strong to ignore there.
Of course there’s a narrative that is actually worth paying attention to which is Skinners record against top 10 teams. I saw the data this morning and it’s pretty rotten if accurate, and something to bear in mind going forward. I’ll dive into the advanced metrics for that if I’m considering backing the Oilers again.
Honestly the biggest issue there seemed to be the lines they rolled with as the Oilers were all over the place there at the start.
I was enjoying there “just” being 9 games yesterday – but now that means there is 9 today! Not sure how I feel about that. I’m usually at least prepped for the big Saturday, and ready for a chill Sunday.
Honestly after getting slammed with that Canes “health report” whammy, I’m fine with just taking the day off but let’s see if anything jumps out.
Sabres vs Devils
Sabres two wins in a row. Devils coming in after that big Flyers win. Sabres are a bit too high variance a team with their GF%/xGF% so can be easy enough to ignore. Unlike the previous game, I’m not a big fan of the over due to Devils xGF.
Avs vs Flyers
Avs are just too eratic for me, especially at the odds. And actuall by the data – the Flyers don’t actually look to bad here IF they could actually score.
Ducks vs Canadiens
Ducks nice little run came crashing to a halt on the road in Calgary. Habs struggling. Nothing really standing out for either team here. The XG metrics lean towards the over 6, but the GF/60 for both negates that.
Stars vs Jackets
Wouldn’t favour the Stars as much here as the Jackets are a tricky team this season. But certainly not enough to back the Stars -1.5 here due to the Jackets GA/60 over the last 10.
Panthers vs Islanders
Nothing really jumping out in the metrics. Slight lean towards the Panthers but not enough to back them at that price.
Rangers vs Knights
Not backing anything involving the Knights at the moment. This seems like a close one I won’t be surprised if Rangers end their skid here actually.
Utah vs Blues
Neither of these teams are really back-worthy. Data slightly leans Utah but just in line with the actual odds.
Canucks vs Red Wings
Canucks run cut short in Dallas. Wings playing well but on the B2B. Looking at the data I ain’t seeing a play.
Kraken vs Flames
And yeah not feeling a play here either. I actually would lean the Flames myself, but very slightly and not enough to justify a play.
