Written by Graeme on Wednesday, January 10th, 2018
Follow @BetNHL
Hi all,
It was a perfect 3-0 night last night with the NHL Tips which was nice. The Blackhawks game went over with ease and the Capitals had a fairly solid victory over the Canucks.
Tampa winning in regulation was a bit of a tight one but they pulled it off in a night full of goals.
With it being a quieter night tonight I wanted to talk about something we’re going to be testing here for the rest of the season – an experimental unit/confidence betting system.
The short version: Currently we do not offer any confidence levels or betting unit quantities in our tips. This is because we wanted to keep everything as simple as possible as we get a lot of casual followers, and didn’t want to overcomplicate things.
However for the rest of the 17/18 season we will be offering up a separate section in the tips called “Unit/Confidence Betting” where we will provide tips with a unit/confidence level.
A unit is just a portion of your bankroll. Ideally your bankroll should have 100 units in it to handle variance and the swings. So take your current bankroll and divide it by 100 and that’s your unit. If you have a $10,000 bankroll, 10000/100 = 100 so 1 unit is $100.
They will be as follows:
0.5 Unit Plays: These are ones where we aren’t super confident about them, but do think they have value. They will be more risky plays or plays we’re making where there is a factor in a game that we’re unsure how it will affect things – but still want to bet it anyway.
1 Unit Plays: 1-2 unit plays are what currently makes up most of the tips you normally find at BetNHL.ca. These are ones where we are both confident in the outcome and feel the odds are a good price and worth the bet.
2 Unit Plays: These are our maximum confidence plays. Ones where we feel extremely confident about and want to increase our winnings.
So that’s pretty much it.
The longer version: Bankroll management and betting in different units is key to being profitable at winning.
Ideally your bankroll should have 100 units in it to handle variance and the swings. So take your current bankroll and divide it by 100 and that’s your unit. If you have a $10,000 bankroll, 10000/100 = 100 so 1 unit is $100.
The most common thing is to change your units based on your bankroll at that time. So if you lose a few bets and your bankroll is $9800, your new unit bet would be $98.
You don’t have to stick to the 0.5/1/2 unit ratio we have above – we certainly don’t! My personal “maximum confidence” play is 5 units of my bankroll. We’ve just went with the above for simplicity.
Having a strict system like this will help you, win or lose. If you feel very confident about a game and it wins, it helps you increase your bankroll that much faster. However if you feel very confident about a game and it loses, at least you didn’t bet the house or anything like that. As you restricted yourself to 5 units or whatever, you’ve only lost 5% of your bankroll.
We will do the usual write-ups for games. Unit/confidence betting will be a separate section and there may be some bets within it that aren’t part of our usual tips. Depending on the night and our time, we may or may not do write-ups for those. We will track all picks separately as we fine-tune everything.
Any questions at all, feel free to ask. Even if you just want advice on bankroll management etc – I’m happy to help. I’ve been doing betting since I was 16 and doing it seriously since I was in my early 20s so I’ve seen it all.
Stat Tracking: We currently track stats on a 1u basis and will continue until the end of the season regardless of whether it’s 0.5, 1u or 2u.
Here is a breakdown of how the individual units are doing:
0.5u: 8-3 +3.12
1u: 9-7 -+2.79
2u: 0-2 -2
(Last Updated: January 31st, 2018)
Ask questions in the comments below or fire me an e-mail at betnhl.ca@gmail.com
Unit/Confidence Betting System:
Leafs vs Senators – 0.5u on Over 6 Goals incl OT/SO. What stops this from being an actual regular tip is the current form of both teams going into this one. The Leafs have had their last 4 games go under all of which were at home. The Senators last 3 road games have seen them score 1, 1 and 0 in regulation. Actually take out that Tampa game and their road record is atrocious in terms of goals. Shut out multiple times etc.
However this is the Battle of Ontario and it’s one of those games where the form book is often thrown out the window. We saw what the Sens can do when they raise their game like they did against Tampa. Both teams are on the bye week after tonight so you’d think they’d throw everything they can into it.
So 0.5 on over 6 is the play at 1.95 odds.
OHL / WHL / AHL / KHL Betting Tips:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. )
AHL Betting Tips (12-11, +0.52): Rochester in reg 1.77. Hershey in reg 2.00.
KHL Betting Tips (19-15, +1.71u): 0.5u play on Admiral to beat Barys tomorrow at 2.25 odds.
OHL, WHL & AHL & KHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Hi Greame ,
In Ghana, our sportbook is NOT content such an option. I guess most of us who are following you will be prohibited .
Thank you
I’m not sure what you’re talking about. All unit betting is is betting different amounts per bet. And you don’t even have to do that you could just stick to the 1-2u plays which are standard tips.
Hi Greame/Scott,
It’s really great with the unit (0.5, 1 and 2 units) betting system.
I have been following you guys for more than a year, and really like your tips and the community for all to comment.
I very often hear the word “value” and wonder if you could put a minimum odds to your daily tips? I live in Europe and very often the odds my bookies offer has dropped drastically before I get a chance to put my stake on your tips. How low will you go on todays tip? The maximum odds my bookies offer are 1.90.
Does the above make any sense, english is not my native language.
/T
Your English was great!
It’s something we can certainly consider. However when we make the tips, we normally look at what the average odds are and go with that in terms of determining a tip.
So today for example the Leafs/Sens average was around 1.90 at most sportsbooks we checked. That’s what we base our pick around. When we post odds we’re just posting the best odds to save people time – but rest assured we’re basing it on the average odds available.
So I’d say whenever we tip something bet it as long as it’s not either (a) more than 0.10 difference or (b) Below 1.70. Although the latter is our own personal threshold you can probably do 1.68 or whatever if you want.
Perfect, thanks very much. I will also consider some more bookies, at the moment I have 5. That’s an advice I remember you guys gave earlier. Never ever just rely on one bookie.
Hi Graeme, you guys are great thanks for keeping this site going , i do have some question rather than doing unit , why can you introduce number ,e.g 3-4,3-2 ,5-3 etc or over /under , not everybody has access to play unit .
this is just my own idea, what do you think
Well unit betting is simply changing the amount you bet depending on confidence level so you should be able to do that?
And I’m not sure what you mean here are you asking us to tip correct scores?
yes ,correct score or under /over
I think you’re misunderstanding what I mean by “unit” betting. It’s simply the amount you bet. So if you normally bet $10 on our tips, if we say “1 unit play” that’d be $10. If we say “2 unit play” that’d be $20. And if we say “0.5 unit play” that’d be $5.
We already do over/under tips and will continue to do so(hell we have one for todays game under the unit betting). Correct score is something we could never advise.
All posters – worth recognising the excellent clean sweep the guys provided for us all last night – Graeme & Scott are the professionals here and always good to acknowledge their hard work. Cheers
Any thoughts on hawks game?
I said it the other day but I really respect them at home at the moment. It’s why I bet them a couple of days ago and then stayed away when they played the Knights.
But their goalie situ is still a mess and to be honest I’m worried about overconfidence after last night. The over is probably an okay bet but I just wasn’t feeling it.
First things first great picks S&G 3-0, unlike me who had a bad bad night!! on to the next day..gl all
As risky as it might be, I still think Hawks reg at @2.40 is worth a bet, they won two games in a row, last night they completely destroyed Sens, so they should be in a very good mood+Wilds losing in over time last night. It’s also worth mentioning that Wilds home are really strong but on the road they do not perform that well(4 straight road loses). Taking into account all of these things, I just can’t resist going for Hawks reg at @2.40.
Hi S&G,
First off, great tips last night!
Personally I don’t think the unit system is very necessary. One of the best thing about your site is how simple you keep things, and everyone can decide by themselves how confident they are about following the tips or not. The thought process and explanation behind each tip is the most important bit for me.
That being said, for some people that follow tips without putting in their own thoughts on the game, it could prove to be helpful.
As for tonight’s tip I agree with the sens/leafs over 6. Sens are scoring goals but are a disaster in the back and Craig Anderson is not at his best at all. Should cover the goal line.
I went a pretty good 5-1 yesterday, and my apprehension towards taking the Blues paid off as I avoided them altogether. Slightly annoying that after making a comeback the Wild failed to win to give me a nice sweep for the day, but I won’t complain about yesterday. A big shout out to Jakub, who has been following me for a while and sent me some £££ as a thank you for my tips – it’s really appreciated, as after all I am a student ?. Hopefully I can keep making whoever reads this a bit more cash. A light schedule tonight-
POTD – Hawks ML/Reg (85%/70%) – I took Hawks yesterday, as I see them looking a bit like the team that started the season in their first few games. Both teams are on the ends of back to backs here so there is no rest advantage. The Wild have been bad on the road winning just 4 of their last 13; the hawks have looked much better at home winning 5 of their last 6. Hawks thumped the Sens last night, exposing the frailties of Ottawa that I knew hadn’t gone after 2 lucky wins. Wild have been outscored 17-4 in their last 4 on the road, and I’m more than happy taking a Hawks side who took it to Vegas a few nights back without fear.
Leafs ML/Reg (80%/70%) – I didn’t want to take this pick, and I would still advise not playing this large. Why? Ottawa have won the last 6 in Toronto and last 5 overall. Ottawa have had an offensive uptick lately even if they’re still leaking goals. Toronto hasn’t been very consistent and just can’t seem to score much at the moment. I’ve taken them on reg a few times lately to be burned by either an OT loss or an OT win- this side is just struggling to notch reg wins in a real way. I was almost tempted to take Ottawa as I was going to take Jackets against the Leafs a few days back. Ottawa could come out of their thrashing fired up and wanting beat the Leafs. However, the Leafs are the better team and Ottawa are still only 4-14 on the road all season. The Hawks exposed them again last night as the weak team that the Sens are. Even with this heavy plus money I can’t take the Sens who are less rested and just torn apart so often defensively. I am considering waiting to play this- I’ll watch the first 3mins and then bet it. If I see a good looking Sens side I may just change my mind. If I see a Leafs side that looks hungry for a change I’ll stick by my guns. I would advise doing the same if you can- as this plus money on Sens may just be worth it (but that’s a big if) .
Over 5.5 Leafs v Sens. – Leafs games have hit 5 in the last 3 home meetings, and with a Sens side coming to town that leaks more goals than your average visitor I think there is plenty of potential for this to go over. In fact 6 of the last 7 meetings between the sides have gone over. As you may have noticed I don’t play totals very often, but I like this one.
GL!
****CAVEAT**** – I can’t stress enough that Ottawa may be the better play than Toronto here. They’re 8-1-1 in Toronto and after last night’s humiliation could put in a surprising effort tonight. The juice especially on ML Is ridiculous for Toronto, and Ottawa is looking tempting.
Im with you. When teams get humiliated and play a team they have a certain comfort level against, they always seem to play a really good game. And it’s not like the Sens haven’t had any positives to their game lately, so that would support the idea. I cashed in on a Canes PL against the Preds while back in this same scenario.
At the same time i feel like the Leafs offense will explode soon. They’ve been building their defensive game as of late and that often doesn’t go hand in hand with the offense, until you get gain some confidence and you’re in a spot where it has to come out. Like they are now.
What makes this game extremely difficult is i could see the Sens playing a good game but still losing in the end. Leafs are the better team and really want this one. But you never know how the magic of matching up well against other team holds up, sometimes there’s some weird shit going on and bounces seem to go one way. For example the Oilers against the Preds last night tie it up but the goal gets called back on an inch offside.
All in all the odds make this game really hard to predict.. I almost want to go for Sens TT O2.5
But yeah good thinking
Yeah those odds just don’t make a hell of a lot of sense, and look super enticing. Thanks for your thoughts as always Arto 🙂
Agree with Blackhawks tonight. I am also very keen on the over in that game.
I would not be so sure about that because Wilds had some big problems with scoring on the road lately. Also, the last game a few weeks ago between Hawks and Wilds ended up 4-1.
Thanks for your comments. It’s not the Wild I’m counting on to score the goals. However, the Wild are probably good for at least 2 goals, in their last 13 games they only have 2 goose eggs and one one-goal game, otherwise 2+ goals per game. The Blackhawks defense isn’t all that stingy and their goalie is likely going to be Jeff Glass who has a 3.51 GAA. So yeah, I think 6 goals is pretty attainable.
Yet yesterday you didn’t agree with Hawks 😉
takes me awhile to catch on 😉
Rewind back to the Preds 😉
exactly
Thanks for today thoughts again Oliver. My account is looking soo good now. (y) So I had to keep universe in balance… 🙂 I appreciate every sensible opinion in this discussion.(So I learn more about hockey as well 😉
Gotta pay off that tuition fee somehow fella ???
Man tell me about it.
Am I the only one not feeling over 6?
I can’t see the Sens falling apart in this one. Ottawa always put up a fight in TO. Always.
It’s weird – last year, Sens prided themselves on a strong defensive game. Didn’t score manny. Didn’t concede many either. This year, the defence has gone AWOL and the offence doesn’t know where the net is. We all saw the Sens team reaching playoff heights last year. This year, they look a completely different organisation.
Well done on a great night S&G- and great to see the introduction of unit betting !
I’m not feeling the over in the Sens-TML game. Even though the Sens games can do wildly over, the last four Leafs games have gone under so there’s a lot of uncertainty there. However, I do feel that Leafs will dominate Sens at home and I’m taking PL for 1u.
The Wild-Blackhawks game offers more opportunity in my opinion. For perhaps the first time all season the Blackhawks seem to have some confidence and motivation and it’s showing in their results.
The Hawks are now 4-1-1 in their last six games, all without Corey Crawford and Artem Anisimov. During this stretch they have scored 28 goals and with the exception of one game when they scored 3 goals, it’s been 4+ including an 8 explosion against the Sens. The Wild will be more of a challenge than the Oilers or Sens, but with this being the last game before their bye week I like their chances and the odds aren’t bad at -125 ML.
With the scoring machine turned on I like the TT too. The odds are on the high side but the Wild have been leaky so I like my chances. Which leads me to my final bet for this game, Over 5.5.
in past 7 games for Blackhawks over has gone 6-1 and for the Wild it’s been 5-2. At 5.5 I love this play and will bet it as a single and part of a parlay.
GLTA SDB
Agree with the over. 6 out of 7 of the last meetings have gone over. 6 is quite high but I can see it happening. I dont often play totals but I have on this one. On hawks one of the prime reasons I took them (but forgot to mention) was the absence of Niederreriter. I saw how he turned the Wild around when he came back, and again they look flat without him.
What do you say about tonights games? Like Hawks and TML.
I went 2-0 yesterday then Tampa and Capitals won.
Lots of great comments and tips below.
Very happy with last night.
Woke up to winning 7 units approx. on Capitals winning.
Had to place large to win it due to crappy odds, but right now I don’t care.
OT and SDB will recall when I lost my entire bankroll a couple weeks back. Currently 8 units away from being even again.
Better yet, my beloved TML are playing tonight with a massive chance to grab a win before bye-week.
I’m tempted to go all
Out but I don’t believe the game will be over 6.0.
I’ll look at odds for TML to win first period.
Awesome recovery!
Let’s get you back to even! Go Hawks!
here’s why Bolts are an elite team. Tyler Johnson’s hatty from last night. 3rd goal is insane.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgD4ws60yRI
As a blackhawks fan I always thought that playing against wild is one of the complicated game for hawks. So one of my tip is wild.
Not much sure about toronto game. Would like to bet on draw but better to pass it.
Good luck everyone!
Hawks win 4-2 tonight. My call anyway.
Dont think it ll be over 5.5
Blackhawks & over
Definitely Hawks, and with an OT – because i like watching Chicago Blackhawks matches, especially with a Wild opponent, even at night ( i am in Europe ). There could also be over 5.5 goals scored, but i am not a big O/U markets fan.
Other thoughts:
Maple leafs regulation, Tampa -1.5, Caps in regulation, Blue Jackets regulation – all those stakes are for fun, half unit or less.
GLTA to all NHL gurus and the IH lovers!
Maple Leafs vs Senators
This should be a easy home win but after checking the stats between the teams i am going to put a small bet on the Senators to win and i think this will be a high scoring game.
R. Dzingel to score
Blackhawks vs Wild
Blackhawks should win and they getting better! Wild have been loosing with some high numbers latley, and they not good away team. Blackhawks win Reg and J. Toews to score.
Hawks -1.5 (I.E win by 2 or more) is 3.15 on my bookie.
Excellent value. Small 1.2units on that.
Thanks Graeme and Scott for this great blog/platform. I don’t know much about hockey, never had the opportunity to play it and can barely skate, but have always been really intrigued by the skills and pace involved in the game so thanks, I feel exposed to it, getting tips from you guys and watching some highlights.
Keep up the good work and also thanks to all the other bloggers too, especially that hard working student. The most I ever bet is £10, and mostly less than that, but if my bankroll gets up a bit, it’s growing steadily at the moment, I will try to implement a £10 = 1 unit system.
Cheers
***Watched Ottawa and immediately jumped on them over the Leafs. Think my call today to watch the game first was smarter than just taking leafs. Took them before they scored, and took them again when they scored their first… they were still at an underdog price and hopefully a few of you jumped on that too.
I never do player props, but decided to throw some coin on one today to get bet balance to a round number (im sure we’ve all done that).
Brent Seabrook to score the game’s 1st goal at 30 odds (after sitting last game in the press box)
Almost had a heart attack during that offside review LOL
I jumped on Sens after all! Looks like watching the game first was indeed the right call!
Yeah i went for the TT O2.5, hopefully they pot in one more.
And here’s hoping the Leafs don’t generate any type of comeback so you can cash in 😉
Well done. Good shout!