Written by Graeme on Friday, January 12th, 2018
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It was one of those nights in the NHL with three heavy favourites all losing – 2 of which were at home.
We lost with the Capitals against the Hurricanes as the Caps showed a lack of fight in that game, but are thankful that we at least stayed away from Tampa and the Blue Jackets.
That’s the problem with the Capitals – they show up like that a lot. Sometimes their skill and ability is enough to see them win regardless and other times – nope.
It’s another quiet night in the NHL on Friday, January 12th with just 5 games on the board. Will the Capitals get instant revenge against the Canes? They’re underdogs which is tempting however their inability to dominate games just doesn’t make it worth it tonight in my opinion.
There’s only one regular play I’m going with although we have a 0.5u play as well. I was hoping to take the Panthers but they’re too heavy a favourite for my liking.
Oilers vs Coyotes Betting Tips:
The Coyotes are the first time to come back from the bye week. We all saw the results of the bye week last year. Teams went 8-14-4 and came out very slow. The NHL was aware of this and have made some sufficient changes such as having two teams go up against each other off a bye week where they can, but that’s not always the case. Like tonights game.
Let’s be honest the Oilers are absolutely terrible at the moment. They’ve been poor all season long. However this is a game they should be winning. The Coyotes are abysmal. They have exactly ONE win in regulation all season long at home. That’s atrocious.
Oilers have had a couple of days to regroup after their previous games and are going up against an inferior opposition who should be a bit rusty.
I do hate putting faith in the Edmonton Oilers at the moment, but they should be able to put the Coyotes away. While the odds for including overtime/shootout are decent, my belief is that this is a game the Oilers should dominate and win therefore I will go with Oilers in Regulation.
Canada: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
USA: Bet at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
(Odds correct as of 2018/01/12 10:29:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Unit/Confidence Betting Tips:
(We are experimenting with adding unit/confidence to our betting tips. For more details see this post.)
Oilers in Regulation – 1u.
Blackhawks to win incl OT/SO – .5u: This is one of those picks more based on my historical analysis of Hawks games at the moment – I’ve been pretty in tune to them at home knowing when to bet them and when to avoid them. Scotts not a fan of this one due to how well the Jets are playing at the moment and I get that – Hawks aren’t a bounce back team either – but I look at this one and I just think the Hawks can get the victory. I rate them at home and think they can get the W. 1.90 at most places, 1.95 at Pinnacle.
Guys, yesterday spun me off my axis so much so I’m looking at today very confused. I won’t post any picks just yet, as I do not want tonight to be another mistake, but I would love all your thoughts. Currently, I am staying far away from the Coyotes and Oilers game, and if I were to bet it it would be on Arizona. Arizona beat the Preds and held the Rangers into OT and beat Caps- this side can play well, and well enough to beat an Oilers side who are awful. I hate betting games where its a case of guessing who will be worse, and thats why its an avoid match for me. Right now I’m looking at playing Calgary; they’re underdogs and I’ve severely underestimated them lately. Maybe I’m trying to jump on them now too late, but even though Panthers have been stringing wins together they’ve not been against the hardest or most inform teams in the NHL. Calgary doesn’t have to travel far, and after dumping Tampa 5-1 you’ve got to think they have enough to beat a Panthers side which isn’t of the same calibre as the Bolts. Remember Calgarys 15 game winning streak last season? Maybe they’re in for another one. At an underdog price it’s definitely one I’m playing but not 100% it is one I’m tipping just yet.
I’m also looking at Jets to win. They’re a slight underdog tonight, and have done well on the road against the Hawks. My concern is that the Hawks can be world beaters some days, and shit other days. If they come out as world beaters this could be a bad pick. Further, Jets have not been good on the road despite crushing teams at home, will they step up their game to claim revenge over a team that thumped them at home? I’m not sure right now.
Everything looks very hard to call today, like should I really expect the Caps who should have won at home to beat Carolina on the road (where they’re not very good)? Should I trust a Flames side on no rest? Today is a day I would like to hear from you guys before I make any firm calls.
Will update my picks below later****
Hi Oliver , follow your comments with attention since weeks and had to say what a surprise on yesterday bet , i put Columbus + Caps + Lights on regular … there is some day when all the opposite happen 🙂 , i started betting NHL since a few months only, i live in France so games played during nights so i watch it when i can .. for tonight i bet on Flames , Jets & Columbus on reg on 1 ticket , let s see what happen that time
anyway , i want to thank you for your daily comments which help me sometimes and put me on the right way other times.
have a good game
Thanks Renaud, I live in the UK 🙂 As you say, sometimes things just make no sense and go the opposite way. One piece of advice I can give you is this- avoid large tickets. Playing singles in the long run is a lot safer, and profitable as quite simply you don’t need multiple teams to win. Sure the returns are high, but the risk isn’t work it 9 times out of 10. There will always be days when you get hit hard, and when gambling you have to be prepared to see losses on somedays. As SDB said – this is a marathon not a sprint. I hope tonight we can take some of that cash back from the bookies.
Oliver, when I analyze my games I look at the scoring and specific goalies over the last 5 games. I’m looking at Cgy and Caps. Grubauer should be in for Caps, he is averaging 1 goal/gm, Ward is 2.4. The offense is equal for both teams @ 3.2 goals/gmail over the last 5.
Rittich is expected for Cgy 1.8 goals/gm over the last 5 and their offense is at 3.4 goals. Those are my thoughts.
GLTA.
In my personal view, last 5 isn’t a solid enough amount of games to make a sound call.
What do your stats tell you on last 10 games?
Grubauer does indeed start for Caps tonight.
I will give it a try and let you know. 10 games would take a team back 3-4 wks, alot can change in that amount of time.
indeed it s a marathon , definitely ! i have to say also that tonight will be hard but not unrealistic, Flames are hot actually so they can win even in back to back game , Chicago can make it at home ( as you wrote they can do big & shitty games which is the truth ) and Columbus logically have to beat Flyers … for tomorrow’s games , there much more options to make it right and cashes games.. see ya tomorrow 🙂
Going with 3 away games on my 2 of 3 system.
Flames reg
Oilers reg
Washington win
Also have a small singel bet on blue jackets tonight.
I hear you on your thoughts on Arizona and I dont like the game. I lower my bet cause of this game and the fact that i have 3 away games.. Good Luck, and get back to me with your thoughts of the New York game tomorrow??
Oh man, in my mind thats a simple pick. Rangers all day. Islanders have 0 defence or goaltending right now, and their offence only managed 4 goals in 4 games prior to their game with the Devils.
Be very careful with Oilers, they have scored 5 goals in the past 6 games. Yotes are well rested but could be rusty. I like the under more than picking a side here.
It’s a huge avoid game for me. Wouldn’t even be comfortable taking an u/o pick.
Not that the Oilers can afford to look ahead, but look, they play Vegas tomorrow. Arizona is a solid pick for me:)
They are coming off bye and may we’ll be rusty and flat
Yeah, under could be a good one! I have Oilers on my, but its a risky bet I have anyway with three away games so I have a small bet only.
I’m curious how the Blue Jackets will respond tonight. It’s a good opportunity to get back on track! Hopefully they grab it.
I don’t like to bet them as they are my team, but I think this one looks good. Your thoughts?
What are they thinking? (each team)
Yesterday showed us a blasphemy, but in the NHL it keeps happening. Betters need to read the forecasts. That’s what I always try to figure out for each team in the NHL before betting. What level is their motivation and health at. Once you’re past the first 6 weeks where teams are at their most unstable, for all the same reasons, they find out who and what level they can play at. Once the playoff race first shows up, teams start playing with more resolve. For a short time, you’d think they’d all be predictable after you’ve done lots of daily game research. But when the top 60% of the teams in the league start playing with a lot more strategy in terms of what games they put energy and passion into, betters can really get hit with surprises. I think from here on for the rest of the regular season, we have to try to understand how motivated each team is to play that day, considering what they see coming in the next week of games, what teams they play, their travel schedule, which goalies they can play in each game, etc. So that consideration is critical, in addition to the rest of the daily research (recent stats, recent trends, injuries, long-term stats, who results came from playing which teams, any news coming from the teams found in their local media, playoff race focus in general, historical record against their opponent, home/away stats, fatigue level from travel, $ of days rest before today’s game (for both teams), etc. Good luck! I have loads of stuff to do today, can’t bet, no picks or leans, I’ll be nose to the data again tomorrow though.
Good points. Analysing (stats, goalies, injures) are crucial. Studying previous history, trends and momentum ‘swings’ are helpful too. The players motivation level and the unforeseen factors like which team gets the ‘puck luck’ in that game are the difference makers. If after considering all that and you still can’t decide do yourself a favour and walk away. Don’t give the ‘bookies’ the satisfaction. You can’t lose if you don’t bet. There’s still lots of gms to play:)
well said bro
thanks for sharing your thoughts with us, your points are very well articulated and spot on. Certainly all of the factors you list are crucial but finding that certainty is very elusive. But your central point about motivation is what it’s all about. Let’s do our best to analyze and share our thoughts on that first. Remain objective!
Well said.
I’ll take the great8 revenge tonight… even with Grubauer.. love those odds to recover the robbery yesterday night.
Results of last night is another example of how bank roll management is key to making money if you want to do this full time. The ‘bookies’ love these games! I came close to picking the Jackets but backed off because they were 4-6-0, shutout 2 times and 7/10 gms were decided by one goal. Perfect scenario for an upset. Congrats to those who picked the ‘dogs’ and hope the others didn’t lose big on the ‘favs’
Onward and upwards:)
Very good points. I got burned and my first lesson is bankroll management
Canucks, Hurricanes and Panthers with 1u;
Vanek, Skinner and Huberdeau with 0.5u.
Florida Panthers win including OT
Hawks / Jets over
Lean Blue Jackets – regulation, 0.25 unit here only, and the odd is rather low.
Nucks-CBJ – You’d expect a good effort from CBJ tonight but they’re a funny team and you just never know if they show up or not. Very likely they’ll start Korpisalo, who’s a solid backup. Markstrom will be in net for Nucks and he’s been solid even if his team sucks. I think this game goes under. No value in picking CBJ ML and regulation is too iffy with these teams. Nucks could surprise but they are a one-man team and facing a team that was embarrassed the night before. They could find enough offence to be 2-2 at end of regulation so OT is a play as well.
Flames-Cats is a tough one. Flames are hot (duh) and showing no signs of cooling off. Hard to say whether they’ll be spent from last night but the score didn’t indicate that it was a hard game for them. Their goalie Rittich seems to be the real deal and the team plays well in front of him. Reimer is inconsistent but you can’t count on him to be bad. Florida has been very good at home lately rolling off 4 straight wins before their dismal road trip. They are well rested and will be looking to build on that solid win against the Blues. Very tough game to call. I’m inclined to take Flames for 1u but maybe bet it live after seeing how the teams come out?
I’m definitely taking the Caps to win. They are too good to lose two in a row to the Canes and they’ll be looking for some payback. Grubauer is very solid and they don’t have any serious injuries. I don’t think they were ready for Canes speed and tenacity but they’ll be ready tonight. It’s going to be a close game so the under is an option as well. Only concern is motivation that Canes will bring to give new owner first win at home. I think it’s a tight game so under is in play.
Jets win tonight. Glass is a terrible NHL goalie and the team has no confidence in him. Jets are playing very well, better than Hawks, and have had a couple of solid road wins against good teams. Jets are also well rested as are Blackhawks. Over is in play.
Tough to pick a side in the Oilers-Yotes game. Raanta has been solid and Talbot has been not. Yotes are coming off bye and could be very rusty. Oilers have lost 3 in a row and can’t buy a goal. I think I like the under in this game and lean towards an Oiler win.
So far, I have only place a bet on Caps ML. I’m still thinking about other options.
GLTA SDB
May want to consider the Jets TTG. My bookie has the Jets TTG at 2.5. Jets last 7/10 were +3.5 goals; Hawks are -2.5 GA in last 5 but Glass was 3, 4, & 4 GA in his last 3 starts. As far as the outcome, you may want to keep in mind that even though The jets have 7/10 wins, 2 were vs Edm and 2 vs Buf. GL tonight:)
Good catch. However, line is now -155 for Jets TT. If you’re considering TTs look at Oilers under 2.5. They haven’t scored more than 2 in 6 games and Yotes are actually a decent defensive team.
Jets to score first is only -115 against Glass!
Wish I had the stats to back this but I remember reading the Jets are one of the top 5 teams to score 1st. Two others I remember are the Leafs and Devils. Fingers crossed:) GL
You know after last night I didn’t want to trust my instinct. I felt strongly that Canucks could win this. They have won 4 of the last 5 meetings in Columbus , are better rested and looking for a win. Odds were superb as well. I really regret it now looking at 4-1 Canucks.
Yesterday was really bad!
Today i pick: Florida because flames played yesterday.
Jacketts i’ll think they want to respond on there losing yesterday and now @home they should win.
Edmonton they have talend enough so of have to come out ones.
Gl everybody
Don’t overestimate the rest factor. Calgary are 5-2 in their last 7 on a back to back.
Ok ok thats a good point,thnx I will think it over.
My feeling is still saying Florida won last 4 at home, but now i’m doubting haha.
But to what teams, and in what kind of form? Also look beyond those 4 games and they were losing a significant number of games.
You say to teams? Yesterday the worse on paper also won.
Yes the lost before but flames also. Its still gambling you can see it yesterday ?
Its gambling but that was what Sabres 11th win of the year? If it was always just a toss up, then this would be roulette. Yes in theory anything can happen. But in practice the overall better teams are going to win more times than worse opponents. So the teams they beat and the form those teams were in definitely matter.
I agree that the better teams normally more often win.
Thats in every sport….
But it is always gambling what jou take
You’re right. The “worse” teams won. But as mentioned I another post tonight, motivation plays a huge part.
The first half of the season is always odd in places. Be prepared for some teams to push for form and create win streaks.
which is why we should be careful about overbetting against weak teams 🙂
100% with you on that. Although sometimes you’ll find your biggest payday doing that.
@ Maikel
Calgary are on a 5 game win streak after demolishing Tampa. That’s no easy feat in itself.
Agree 100% Oliver. Depending on the team and injuries, these are well conditioned professional athletes. Based on stats, the Flames last 8/10 are 1 goal gms; last 4/5 were 1 goal gms. Possible OT game and the Panthers could steal this one.
My picks for tonight,
Panthers win ML
Blackhawks win ML
Oilers win ML
Good luck!
Hi lion I am almost same thinking blackhawks ML Oilers ML
But Panters I am going whith the over today….. even IF i have Bern playing mostly under whith Florida today feels like a 4-2 game. Just wont to share that with you.
Nice mate. I had strong feelings on Canucks and Calgary wins but sometimes you do not listen your senses and pick exactly opposite. I was watching Jackets game and Jackets were leading 1-0 and then already I saw that Jackets are doing pointless shoots and Canucks looking for better chance to make a critic hits. My sense was pushing me to make live bet on Canucks win in reg but did not do it :(.
Same goes with the Calgary game. I was so confident that Calgary ll win against panther because Calgary has perfect away statistic. But evening when I put my tips here then just in a minute i have changed my mind and did my freaking last decision on Panthers.
Anyway hope things ended nicely for you and others.
I’m feeling Chico. 80%
You like the Blackhawks more than 80 % ??
So that didn’t go as planned yesterday lol.
I find today’s picks kind of risky as I’m not 100% confident in them but my parlay for today is:
Washington ML and Edmonton REG
Also, for some odd reason, got that feeling that Canucks will pull through today so I’m going to back my hometown team with a small bet!
Best of luck everyone!
Good luck Nucks! I used to live at 4th & Alma in Point Grey
Hi guts just joined in from Malmö sweden
I am a NHL Guy fore sure!
I just want to share my best bet today and its Edmonton !!!!
I think generly Edmonton oilers is the team to look at beting This second half of the season
And wen crawford returns Chicago Will Also the team to look 4. Must say I like Chicago today also and thats becouse the teams i Will avoid beting second half of the season are the jets and the capitals.
So This are my thouts fore Now ill try to stay tuned in this site whith more coments.
Good luck to all that are going whith the Edmonton turning point starts tonight!
Ah great! Welcome. I am from Malmö to: )
Great tomorow Redhawks Will sweep the floor against lakers!
I didn’t jump on last nights tips because of laziness.
Glad I didn’t – looking back, Buffalo really took the game to Columbus. Once the first goal went in, I didn’t think Jackets would come back. True to this, they didnt.
Calgary are an odd team and I never trust any game they’re involved in.
And Washington. My oh my. No words needed.
—-
CBJ/’Nucks – interesting. Worst losing streak CBJ have had over the last 20 games is 3 games. They’re bounced back after losing both 1 game and 2 games on the spin. Most recently, when CBJ lost away at Colorado, they won at home to Florida. When they lost away at Pittsburgh, they won at home to Philly.
Let’s look at Vancouver. They’ve lost 5 in a row – FIVE. This is their fourth game away in a row. Fair enough, they’ve had an extra couple days rest. But they’re damn awful.
CBJ ML @
Caps vs Canes – no bet here. I literally do not favour either team.
If I was going to choose, it would be Carolina ML. Their confidence must be booming from last night.
Flames vs Panthers – again, no bet – at the moment anyway. I like Flames to continue their confidence boosting run.
Calgary are only one point behind Dallas in the Western conference and really need to push on.
The over 5.5 looks good to me.
30 goals in the last 5 games for Florida being involved in.
Same again for Calgary. Average 6 gpg each. Crazy.
Hey Lendo i just layed a double over on the panters game and under on the blue jackets game! Feel cofident!
I wish you the best of luck in your choices!
What markets were they? Over/Under 6? 5.5?
that’s not a bad play, I like the under in the Oilers-Yotes too
I see the reasoning. I can’t bring myself to place on it though.
It has the potential to be a tight match or explode.
Oilers have scored 5 goals in the past 6 games, hard to see them exploding against a team that can play pretty tight
My chosen bookmaker has the market set at 5.5
Over @ 1.83
Under @ 2.0
Interesting. It’s hard to call.
Pant PL, Chi ML , Nucks ML, Oilers ML
Dubois to score for Columbus with 5 units
Getting Columbus to score a goal let alone a player is asking a lot.
Thats true, but i still ended up + units last night with Blackhawks win Reg and over 5.5 in Florida match and Capitals match 🙂
Going for the Over in the Caps game again. I’m sensing it will be a messy game
Habs vs Bruins & Oilers vs Vegas tomorrow looks so much more tempting to me.
May stay on the fence tonight and watch from a distance – certainly interested in the outcome of the Flames game.
Columbus NEEDS a win to save face. Their at home in front of their fans who will boooooo they hell out of them, if they lose back to back to, 2 bottom feeder teams in the league.
Love this spot for Florida. Calgary, is rolling but I think their a different team without Smith. That was a huge win for the Flamerzzz last night in Tampa. I’m hoping for a bit of a let down against a team they do play fairly well against.
I’ll parlay this game ML and throw on Jackets ML just to be safe.
Let’s see how it plays out !
lol. O you Blue Jackets you ! FML terrible
Let me say this now JEZZZOOZZZ Christ Oilers and Talbot are bad. 2 shots two goals ??? Lmfao. Took Arizona because we’ll Coyotes have won 4 of the last 5 there, and Oilers don’t deserve to be favourites in any matchup right now. Glad I did!