Written by Graeme on Thursday, January 12th, 2023
Follow @BetNHL
It was a winning night last night thanks to the LA Kings. Phoenix Copley started and shipped 3 goals but thankfully the Kings were able to get the win regardless. A lot of late goal action in that one.
Leafs got the tight win over the Preds, the Flyers got the surprise win over the Caps, and the Oilers routed the Ducks.
Busy day today so let’s get to it.
Jackets vs Hurricanes:
Jackets at home. Yeah they are struggling hard this season but home results a couple of positives. Win over the Hawks, tight loss to Dallas, they haven’t played a lot of home games lately but I mean great games against the Kings and Flames in early December. Canes struggling. I don’t really see anything that suggests you can bet on the Jackets here – but I’m wary of betting against them.
Rangers vs Stars:
Two very close teams by the metrics. Rangers have the edge in goalscoring, but that’s balanced out by a Stars much higher xGF/60. THey should get back to pouring the goals in soon. Not seeing anything here.
Canadiens vs Predators:
Habs got the big win over the Blues then got destroyed by the Kraken. These two just played on the 3rd and the Preds beat them at home 6-3. Preds on a B2B after that loss to the Leafs. Preds were a tad unlucky not to tie that one up at the end.
It’s one of those weird spots where it just kinda feels like the Habs are catching the Preds at the right time. It’s been a bit of a long road trip for Nashville as well. They’ll be happy to get back home on Saturday.
I wish the odds were worse on this one, but they’re actually pretty decent for the Preds, and I think I have to suck it up and make a play on them here. My gut says to skip it and I don’t like it but mathematically it’s a play. If it goes to OT, I feel the Habs have the edge, so I’m going to go with Preds in Regulation.
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Note: BetOnline. don’t have odds up yet and they are usually best for regulation bets so might be worth waiting for those first. I’ll check and see a bit later what they are if I remember and update this if they are better.
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/12 7:32:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Bruins vs Kraken:
Two teams on a good run come in here. Kraken absolutely crushed their Canadian road trip my god, then added to that with the win over Buffalo. Of course the Bruins are a slight step up in competition compared to everyone they have played so far.
Gut says the Bruins chew them up and spit them out here, and this great run comes to a halt. But the Kraken are a streaky team, and when they are on a hot streak they look great. Very poor odds on the Bruins too so no play for me.
Red Wings vs Leafs:
Leafs might be without Matthews again. With that and them on a B2B coming off a rather ugly game, I’m happy to pass on it.
Lightning vs Canucks:
Tampa dropped two on the road before returning home and thumping the Jackets 6-3. Vancouver have been goals galore lately although conceding a ton and losing due to that.
I think it’s fine to bet Over 6.5 goals here. Tampa you can generally count on to score at least 3 here. Canucks however are also on track with that Vasy will probably be in net tonight which I mean isn’t great but his last 3 starts he hasn’t really put up the numbers, conceding 3 in a row with two save percentages of .875 and .842.
CF/60 and FF/60 are a tad low which is my only real concern. You look at a lot of the teams the Lightning have put the goals up against, and their CA/60 is all higher than the Canucks. That hasn’t been a factor for who the Canucks play though.
Just have to hope the Canucks get a goal early here and really get this game going.
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -123 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.81 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/12 7:32:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Sabres vs Jets:
Buffalo coming in off that loss to the Kraken. Winnipeg just lost to the Wings 7-5. I lean the over on ths one but it’s tough to say with Hellebuyck in net. Yeah he’s coming off letting in 6 against the Wings, but very solid before that.
I could see this one going over, but neither team has above 3 in the SCGF/60 and SCGA/60 for the last 10 which makes this one a pass for me.
Islanders vs Wild:
Man have the Islanders been terrible lately. Minnesota have been inconsistent at best over the last few weeks.
Looking at the numbers this looks to be a 50/50 3-2 either team type of game. Fine passing on it.
Blues vs Flames:
I’m fine passing on these quick turnaround games.
Blackhawks vs Avalanche:
Honestly? At this point I’m fine completely passing on the Avs and anything involving them. I’ve been working on a new system involving betting over 2.5 team goals in parlays this month, and the system didn’t even recommend the Avs to score over 2.5 goals tonight so that pretty much says it all. Easy skip for me.
Coyotes vs Senators:
Arizona have dropped a couple at home against the Penguins and Sharks. Actually thought the Coyotes were quite unfortunate against the Pens on Sunday, and in hindsight I’m fine with that bet. After the Pens scored that 3rd goal though the Coyotes shut off, and I really felt they didn’t look hungry at all in that game vs the Sharks. Looks like things are starting to wear on them.
Ottawa come in though with two big losses against the Preds and Kraken. With that, they are way too heavy favourited for my liking.
I think Sens will get the win here but feels like way too much of a gamble for me.
Knights vs Panthers:
Knights coming in off that 5-1 loss to the LA Kings. They’ve had a few days to stew on that. Panthers scraped by the Avs 5-4 in a thriller.
Not really seeing a bet in this one. I’d give the Knights the edge but you’re looking at 1.74 odds incl OT. With the way their goaltending is at the moment, I think it’s too risky.
I got all the 4 right last night. A bit lucky i guess. Tonight i think rangers monyline, and Predators in regulation. I am also considering Jets in regulation. Just wanna say thanks for a great site. Regards from Norway
That’s awesome! Good luck tonight 🙂
Seattle Vs Boston
Seattle already 6-0 in the month of January. However this will be their 7th game in 12 days to start the new year. This will be their sixth straight road game. Terrible spot for them to be playing Boston as long as Boston has overcome any jet lag. The Jake DeBrusk injury hurts them with him being out reportedly a month. Even crazier he was able to score the two goals in the Winter Classic with the injury. Jones confirmed and he’s been the better of the two Seattle goalies recently. Boston first game back off the west coast trip that wrapped up Sunday at Anaheim. The level of opponent and amount of games Seattle has played on the road will be contributing factors if they get “ate up” as you alluded to.
Ottawa vs Arizona
Ottawa was way too high in my opinion as well. I actually made Arizona a small favorite. I admit it was a lazy line on my part with not much research or thought put into it with the amount of games today. And then relooking yes Arizona has lost 6 straight. But why is Ottawa at 62 percent? Both below .500 and on the road. Sens value to me is always in a spot of them as a dog, with higher returns and lower expectations. I was about to say I’d have to make a play on Arizona just on principle, and I see a run has already been made since the opening line of -165. Ottawa now down to -150 and 60 percent is still too high to me. I don’t feel great about Arizona winning, so I’m not encouraging anyone to bet the Coyotes. But just on a topic of line value, and those that approach betting more like they are playing the stock market. I believe that was a mistake and I should have played Arizona at the price they opened up at. Might be a little too late now. And might not even matter if the Sens win.
Winnipeg Vs Buffalo
Was looking towards Winnipeg last night in some capacity as I assumed this was Hellebuyck vs Comrie. However i see both Hellebuyck and Luukkonen are already confirmed. Wasn’t sold on Luukkonen in his early starts, and still might not be. But he’s done just enough recently for me to want to see a few more results to see if he regresses back or not. And over the last three or so years I find myself never as enthusiastic to take the Jets on the road as I am to bet them at home.
Carolina vs Columbus
Carolina drops to under 3 Goals For on the road but might be reading too much into it. Blue Jackets Goals For jumps up significantly and is actually respectable at home. Korpisalo starting because Merzlikins has an illness apparently. How about he’s starting because he’s the better goalie? Still injuries for CBJ. Nothing wrong with taking Canes. But prolly better spots to take them and better spots to go against Columbus. The pricing makes it to where if you do take the Canes it has to be one of the games you feel the most confident in on the 12 game slate. Could get behind a Blue Jackets team total under of some kind. But they have hit three or more goals in 5 of their last 8 at home including the most recent which was 4-3 Shootout victory over the Canes back on the 7th. It was a game heavily dominated metrics wise by Carolina though. A repeat of that and I can see a completely different final score here. So that’s a positive to anyone taking Carolina and is able to look at the underlying metrics and not the final score line.
Interestingly enough I also have dabbled more in -2.5 score lines this year. Though I don’t have any system or anything like that. Mine is still rather rudimentary in just seeing how often the 1.5 doesn’t come into play. Looking at records in games decided by one goal and games decided by three or more. In years prior it’s not something I ever considered as usually regulation and -1.5 would be about as far as I’d go. However I feel like books have started to price both those down a smidge, because they are popular bets people make to extract more value and for parlays. Especially with heavier favorites and even the mid tier teams because of just how poor the bottom 6 teams are. However, I don’t really see the higher lines correlated. Even when there’s line movement you can often get the 2.5 at or near the same price it opens with little change.
Interested to see how that works out for you even if it’s in a smaller capacity and not to the level as what you guys do with your regular tips and write ups. I Just remember from year to year when you guys would do things like that with tipping other league games from time to time as well. Even if I didn’t always tail the plays, I was interested in the outcomes, and the thoughts you’d share with everyone after dedicating your time and energy. You could even caveat it as not an “Official Play” or something to that nature.
Thanks as always for the write-ups. Always appreciated and really interesting to see your thoughts.
In regard to the system I am working on – just to clarify, it is an over 2.5 team goals system. It came from my frustrations at so many bets where the numbers practically guaranteed a team scoring 3 goals, but the odds were brutal.
I’m just gathering data and placing flat bets right now but on January 10th it did nail an 11.98 parlay which was encouraging. Hopefully see that continue.
lol got it…i was way off on my first read . Glossed over you specifically saying team totals twice. Chalk that up to me being at work. I think when I saw it was Avs vs Blackhawks i just assumed you were talking a -2.5 spread in order to get any value because of the high line. Hope the success with it continues and congrats on the parlay hit. Always an extra sense of validation when the work pays off especially in a business where you have to really grab any value you can get. Three is such a key number so I can imagine the brutal odds you were getting. I always use three on my goalie game logs, even though it’s not always as negative an indicator as I may make it out to be. It’s just how often that number always comes up.
Dallas +100
This Dallas play is mostly just about the price I’m getting them at. I feel like Dallas has been good enough to be a slight road favorite in this spot. Kreider being out lands as a bigger deal to me as Hintz being out for Dallas though maybe that’s a little unfair and I should grade it as a wash. Not surprised in a result either way just like the price I’m getting on the Stars.
Toronto -140
I made Toronto -155 so I like that this came in at under that price line. Looks like no Matthews but Toronto has other guys that can step up. Both Murray and Samsonov give you identical metrics so no drop off in net. Husso for Detroit now .871 sv % over his last 9. And has conceded three or more in 8 of those games. Toronto 6-1-1 inside the division. Can they still lose a road game to a division rival they should expected to beat. Yeah, nobody does it better than Toronto lol. But I have to take the data and the price. Which I thing is over compensating a bit for the back to back and what to price the injuries.
Dallas +100
Toronto -140
both plays because I like the price I’m able to get the teams at. Hopefully I didn’t undervalue the Home teams.