Written by Graeme on Sunday, January 15th, 2023
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It was an incredible day of sports yesterday!
The NFL playoffs began and we had an absolutely incredible comeback, as the Jacksonville Jaguars came back from 27-0 down to win the game. Just sensational.
Big moves in UFC with Ngannou out, and Jon Jones back. The Manchester derby, and a rather controversial goal that has everyone talking.
And then a hell of a day of NHL action!
A couple of massive blowouts – how about that Kraken game? Then the Avs as well. Just a wonderful day of sports and hoping for more today. Kraken are now the first ever team in the history of NHL to have a swept a 7 game road trip. Impressive.
We have a quiet Sunday in the NHL. Let’s see what we’ve got:
Rangers vs Canadiens:
Would have to back Rangers -1.5 here and not something I am up for. I mean I’d be surprised if they don’t do it especially considering they thumped the Habs 4-1 on the road, and are rested.
The problem is their offensive metrics are quite underwhelming. Basically if they do the business and cover the spread, it’s more due to the Habs defensive metrics than their own offense.
I’m sure many will be on that line here but it’s not a spot I am loving. Primeau projected in net so that will probably be encouraging for the -1.5 peeps. These Rangers offensive metrics just put me off.
Hurricanes vs Canucks:
Both teams on a B2B. Canes got the win over the Pens yesterday as predicted, and the Canucks lost 4-3.
The metrics all point to a high scoring game. Both teams scoring great and also creating a lot of chances. Canucks have poor defensive metrics.
I’d prefer to be on Canes in regulation here but the odds don’t justify it. Canes also without Pacioretty again it appears. I’d back the over here if both weren’t on a B2B. That always concerns me.
Jets vs Coyotes:
Jets come in off the good win over the Penguins. They have been playing well and racking up the results.
Now they host a struggling Arizona team.
I think it’s probably just fine to take the Jets -1.5 here. Looking at the offensive metrics, it’s not overwhelming in that manner. Like if Jets don’t win in regulation I’d be very surprised, but the stats aren’t jumping out at me for the -1.5 being an easy one by any means.
Looking at the empty net stats as that could be a factor – its basically a coinflip on whether the Jets will score or concede if going against an EN.
This is a weird one as like the above two, there’s what feels like an obvious play, but I’m just not fully convinced on it. But with this one looking at the metrics, I feel mathematically it’s just a play.
Jets -1.5 if Hellebuyck starts
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/15 10:00:47 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Yeah don’t really see a play. All home teams should win but it’s the NHL and surprises happen.
I think the Habs will bring a good effort and without Kreider the Rangers offense isn’t as effective. Probably too much momentum for the Rangers with these character wins over good teams lately to actually lose this one, but could easily be a tight game and MTL coming on a back-to-back it’s hard not think it’s an easier game if you’re NYR.
You’d think the Canucks are due for a win, I mean they’re scoring 3-4 goals every game so the first team that has a sloppy off-night will probably take the L. But the Canes rarely have those on home ice and in the first meeting of the season VAN barely had the puck at all. Carolina also has a nice break coming up so the message is probably to empty the tank, like they did on a back-to-back before the Christmas break against the Flyers, sort of a similar trap game there and they got the win.
Yotes have to be running on fumes playing their 8th game in 13 nights, especially when you keep losing it’s mentally taxing. Winnipeg should destroy them quite frankly. But Vejmelka has turned into a superhuman against the Jets posting 95.9% save pct. in 4 games and only lost 1 in regulation. It probably won’t matter tonight, but just in case I’d rather pass. The handicap odds have gone down to non-playable levels.
Interesting stat you gave with Vejmelka success vs the Jets. I already made my handicap before reading your post. I don’t think it would have kept me off my play because of all his other metrics. But still great info. Also I would think he’d be more likely to return to his normal levels, by the Jets having a big game against him eventually. But if he turns in another superhuman performance, it was a really good stat you brought up that I was totally unaware of.
Win -2.5 +110
Might be too aggressive and the return is quite low as well admittedly. Looked at race to 3 which is -220. Looked at both team totals. The closest thing I debated instead of this is do I take a Winnipeg team total over 4.5 at +125? I am envisioning a 5-2 Jets score line. The -2.5, I pay 15 cents for three different score outcomes in case the Jets can’t get to 5.
Vejmelka in goal for Arizona. 17 of his last 18 he’s conceded at least 3. 9 of those 18, four or more. Hellebuyck not at his sharpest levels as of late but still good. Has held 7 of his last 12 opponents to 2 goals or less.
I don’t think Arizona can get to three goals today. I think the Jets are good for at least 3 even strength against Vejmelka. Something the Jets have done in 5 of their last 6. At least one possibly two on the Power Play, empty net potential as well. Wouldn’t be surprised by a 5-2 Jets win.
Winnipeg -2.5 at +110