Written by Scott on Monday, January 15th, 2024
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Only 2 games yesterday.
The Rangers beat the Capitals 2-1 to end their losing skid at 4 games.
The Red Wings beat the Leafs 4-2 with the Wings scoring 3 times in the 3rd in the win.
I’m hungover as my Detroit Lions hosted a playoff game for the 1st time in 30 years and won and it didn’t start until after 8 and the beers were tasting great.
Back to a busy day with 10 games.
Devils vs Bruins Betting Tips:
Devils are 6-3-1 last 10 and are in 5th in the Metro.
The Bruins snapped their losing skid at 3 games when they beat the Blues on Saturday.
They have played each other twice with each winning one but the Devils won in overtime.
One issue I have with the Bruins at the moment is their last 4 games needed extra time to be completed
On the road the Devils are 13-6-1 which is better than their home record where they have gone 9-9-2. The Bruins return home here after playing the last 4 on the road. Maybe returning home will give them the boost they need after losing 3 of the 4 on the road.
I would think it would as they have gone 12-3-3 in Boston but it’s hard to back them after that road trip. The Devils are a good team and could take advantage of the Bruins recent play but again with them at home they may use the home crowd to turn things around.
Sharks vs Sabres Betting Tips:
Both teams coming off of losses.
Last 10 the Sharks are 1-9 and on the road they are a pathetic 4-18-1. They rank 32nd in goals, shooting percentage, shot, goals allowed, shots allowed and also have the worst penalty kill in the league.
The Sabres are ranked 21st in goals, 23rd in goals allowed, 14th in shots and 10th in shots allowed. Last 10 they are 5-4-1 and have gone 9-11-1 in Buffalo. This month they are 3-2.
I would think that with the way the Sharks have been this season this should be a game the Sabres win. But I personally don’t feel like the Sabres have shown us enough to take them in regulation.
Ducks vs Panthers Betting Tips:
The Ducks have lost 2 in a row and 5 of their last 6. The Panthers had their win streak snapped in their last game when they lost to the Devils on Saturday.
With the Panthers still at home and anxious to get back into the win column taking on a weak Ducks team I like their chances here.
They played once this season with the Panthers winning 2-1. In fact the Panthers have won the last 7 against the Ducks dating back to 2019.
But we would have to take the Panthers -1.5 and that just barely gets past our minimum so I’m passing.
Canucks vs Jackets Betting Tips:
Canucks have won last 5 and are 7-2-1 last 10. Jackets lost last 3 and are 2-4-4 last 10.
This will be the Canucks 7th straight road game but they have been good as the away team going 15-7-2. Jackets at home are 8-11-4.
Canucks lead league in goals and Jackets rank 29th in goals against.
I’ve said it for years going back to the battles they had with the Hawks, I don’t like the Canucks. But their is no denying how good they have been this year and it pains me to type this.
Canucks in regulation
Ontario: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -140 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/15 8:15:03 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kings vs Hurricanes Betting Tips:
Kings have lost 8 in a row and are 2-4-4 last 10.
The Canes have been playing well going 7-1-2 and have won their last 2 games.
The Kings are a good team and should be doing better than they have been. But they are on the road against a Canes team who has been good of late.
I want to take the Canes but the Kings are overdue for a win.
Kraken vs Penguins Betting Tips:
Kraken are rolling right now and riding a 9 game win streak. The Pens have lost their last 2.
It’s hard to bet against the Kraken as they are playing so well. And the Pens haven’t been very good this season as their 7th in the Metro will tell us.
The Pens have a winning record in Pittsburgh but I still have a hard time backing them. The Kraken have 6 of their 9 wins on this streak done on the road so they haven’t missed playing at home.
Kraken incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.29 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +129 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.29 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/15 8:15:03 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Islanders vs Wild Betting Tips:
Nothing from this game I like.
Predators vs Knights Betting Tips:
I’m still not touching anything with the Preds involved.
Avalanche vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
Avs on 3 game win streak and Habs a 3 game losing skid.
The Avs are much better in all the major stats; goals, goals allowed, shots and shots allowed.
On the road they are better than Montreal is at home which makes the odds for this game one sided.
Avalanche in regulation
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: No Odds yet at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/15 8:15:03 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flyers vs Blues Betting Tips:
Flyers on a 3 game win streak beating the Habs in a shootout, the Wild in overtime and the Jets 2-0 on Saturday.
The Blues are 3-1-1 over last 5 games.
Statistically the Flyers are better. But it’s these teams records based on where they are playing that has me concerned. On the road the Flyers are 13-6-4 and at home the Blues are 13-7-0.
Both teams have better records for where they are playing which makes it tough to call a winner.
Goal Scorer Props
Buffalo Peterka +220
Thought about Thompson. Peterka is going at a better price. Dahlin maybe with the favorable matchup, but he’s already scoring at a pretty high pace and the +340 is pretty low for a defenseman.
Vancouver Mikheyev +300
Thought about Kuzmenko who should be close to getting one, if not today, within the next few games. Boeser could still be a good option. I’m expecting some regression for JT Miller at some point soon, though this may be a good matchup for Canucks vs the Blue Jackets.
Colorado Rantanen -120
Slightly cheaper than MacKinnon, but both at minus money. Johansen has the best value I feel at +340, but I don’t know if I’m as confident in him scoring. Makar maybe, but at +240 you may hope he doesn’t so you can get better value in a game down the road.
Player Prop Buffalo Jack Quinn to record a Power Play Point +420.
I like the value here if he gets opportunities on the first Power Play if Skinner is still out. Buffalo Power Play hasn’t been good, but they may get more chances as Sharks are 7th highest in Power Play Opportunities Against. Good goaltender matchup for Buffalo facing Kahkonen.
To WIN moneyline: Florida
Lean: moneyline WINS: Seattle and Vancouver
Florida at home looks like the only clear pick for sides, so with low odds, it may be parlay bait or serve only as bankroll fodder.
Seattle may stomp all over Pittsburgh with the way those two play. The People’s Bank Of Pittsburgh has sucked for many years. Canucks are on a real heater, but today’s game breaks the 80/20 rule and the Canucks may take the day off (see below), while the Jackets may show up charged to face a top talent. Then again, we’re talking about the Jackets…..
With the many early games, travel adjustments (Canucks had to take a bus to Toronto to get a flight to Columbus), blizzards, sports fans watching NFL playoffs, etc., today’s NHL schedule isn’t looking clear for much, especially Over/Under. Motivation may be a major issue today, watch for surprises. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks took the day off, in effect. Tomorrow is so full of back-to-backs, yeuuckk! Hurry up Thursday!
Here’s a webcam of a Buffalo stadium parking lot on Abbott Road, which last night was in whiteout conditions.
https://livebeachcam.net/buffalo-bills-stadium-webcam-highmark-stadium/
Thoughts on some opening lines. I have not and probably won’t play most of these especially the two underdogs today. I only highlight them not because I think they will win , but because I think there may be value in the prices they are going at.
Underdogs with value I thought could be
Columbus +185.
I priced Vancouver-175 on the road. Merzlikins could be a bump up for Columbus in net. However he hasn’t played since December 29th. He also conceded 16 goals in the last 4 Full games he played. And allowed 2 in the period he played vs Toronto. He has performed better at home then on the road. CBJ has lost 3 straight and 8 of their last 10. Though 4 of those 8 losses were after regulation, indicating that even though they are over matched most nights, they are still playing hard.
Vancouver has won 5 straight, 7 of their last 10, and sport a solid road record. Both their goaltenders have matched each other’s performances and are in good recent form. Both have performed well on the road as well. So despite my initial look at the Blue Jackets, I would need them to be even higher than currently priced, for me to even consider. Even if they are able to pull off the rare upset.
Montreal +200
I made Colorado a -175 road favorite. The price has already come down on Montreal to about +185, which is a curious move. Allen in net for Montreal. Just 4 wins on the year. No significant upgrade for him at home. Just one game played in January and he allowed 5. Colorado has won 3 straight and 8 of their last 10. I don’t know yet if Nichushkin will be back yet for the Avs.
I don’t know the reason behind the Montreal line move. But it is still early enough there may be a buy back on the Avs line anyway. Or it could be a simple value play on Montreal opening +200 at home. I thought it could potentially be because of the Avs lack of scoring depth once you get past MacKinnon and Rantanen. Both scored in the most recent game as well. Avs may get back Nichushkin and even Wood as I believe both have been out due to illness. Which could help with Colorado’s offensive depth. I’m not eager to back Montreal so the lower line makes this an even easier pass for me, but I will be interested in where the line closes and the overall result.
Pittsburgh -142
Though I’m not interested in either of the two underdogs I posted, this will be a play for me. I like the spot for Penguins. Seattle already on a 9 game win streak and now face a tough slate this week. Seattle plays vs Rangers tomorrow. Follow that with games vs Edmonton and Toronto. Beniers and Burakovsky both left Saturdays game. I haven’t seen updates on either player so maybe they both play. Neither has had the best of seasons, but it does take away some depth. I know I’m on an island but I do like some of the Penguins underlying metrics and feel their record should be better. The Pens have lost two straight, but both were overtime games against better competition.
Vegas -122
I made Vegas-185. It opened Vegas -142. It’s now Vegas -122. Couldn’t quite figure it out and saw potential value. Then I saw all the recent Vegas injuries. I’ve said in the past, I’m not against playing on a side with an injured player, because I don’t think the public knows how to necessarily value them, and they are probably already built into the price. But, when I’m that far off on a line, I trust everyone else more than myself, so I’m probably on the wrong side.
So far I’ll take a shot on Pittsburgh -142 going against a red hot Seattle team. I get the red flags but the values what’s driving me to take a shot on the Penguins despite how well the Kraken have played recently.