Written by Scott on Monday, January 16th, 2023
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Only 3 games yesterday and we had 1 tip.
We had the Jets -1.5 against the Coyotes if Hellebuyck started the game. He did but the Jets only scored twice in the 2-1 win.
The Habs beat the Rangers 2-1 and the Canucks beat the Hurricanes 4-3 in a shootout.
A busy Monday with 11 games and a few start early so I have to keep these short to have them out in time.
Flyers vs Bruins
Flyers coming in off of that win against the Capitals. They have won 3 straight and are 7-3-0 over last 10.
The Bruins managed to hold off the Leafs in their last game with a late goal from Grzelcyk and are 7-1-2 over their last 10.
The Bruins are comfortably in 1st place in the league with a 9 point lead over the 2nd place Canes and are at home where they have been incredible going 20-1-3.
I like the Bruins but would need to be -1.5 and with the Flyers on a 3 game win streak they could/might keep this a close game.
Panthers vs Sabres
The Panthers won their last game when they beat the Canucks 4-3. The Sabres beat the Preds 5-3.
The records for these teams based in location is similar with the Panthers 9-14-1 on the road and the Sabres 9-11-2.
Thought about the over too but the Sabres won their last game but had dropped 3 in a row before that and only scored 5 goals over those 3 games. I have to skip
Wings vs Avalanche
The Wings lost their last game 4-3 against the Jackets and the Avalanche pummeled the Sens 7-0.
It’s hard to back the Avalanche at the moment and the Wings on the road doesn’t give me a push to pick them either.
Lightning vs Kraken
Both teams are coming off of wins. The Lightning beat the Blues 4-2 and the Kraken beat the Hawks 8-5. The Lightning are on a 3 game win streak and the Kraken 8 games.
Should be a good game with both teams high up in their respective divisions and playing well over last 10, Lightning 7-3 and Kraken 8-2.
I think this game could go either way so I feel better just skipping and instead watching what’s sure to be an exciting game.
Devils vs Sharks
The Devils have been amazing on the road this season going 17-2-1. The Sharks have been bad everywhere they play including going 4-12-6 at home.
I do like the Devils to win here but by how many is the question.
They have won their last 4 with the last 3 each covering the -1.5 spread. With that said I don’t mind the regulation play.
Devils in regulation
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -115 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/16 8:09:12 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Stars vs Knights
Big game here with the #2 team in the Central vs the #1 team in the Pacific.
Both teams are 6-3-1 over last 10. Both teams are scoring more than 3 a game and allowing less than 3.
Both teams are good and this game could go either way so I’m skipping.
Ducks vs Penguins
The Ducks are on a 3 game losing skid but have been off since Friday.
The Pens have also lost their last 2 and are 2-6-2 over their last 10.
I’m not betting on the Ducks and the Pens play of late doent give me any confidence in them here so I’m skipping.
Rangers vs Jackets
The Rangers have won the last 2 games and went 6-2-2 over last 10.
Laine had a hat trick in the Jackets last game but the team is still struggling going 3-7-0 over last 10 and are in 30th place overall.
The Rangers are better than the Jackets in all major stats so I like their chances here. They have also been a good road team going 13-5-3.
I want to take the Rangers here but there is a stomach bug going through the dressing room so its tough to call a game when a player may end up missing this game at the last minute.
Capitals vs Isles
The Caps have lost 2 in a row and both were against the Flyers. The Isles won their last game but had dropped 4 in a row before that with one of the losses coming in a shootout.
Both teams have had similar records over last 10 with the Caps 5-3-2 and the Isles 5-4-1.
It’s hard to predict the Caps. They have gotten some key players back but they haven’t given them a boost yet. Once they get up to mid-season form then I’m sure things will turn around for them but until then I’m fine skipping their games.
Senators vs Blues
The Sens got pounded in their last game against the Avalanche losing 7-0. The Blues have lost 2 in a row and have gone 2-3 over last 5.
The Sens road record is the same as the Blues home record both going 8-10-2. Both are in the bottom half of the league in goals per game and goals against.
They are close points wise too with the Sens having 41 points in 42 games and the Blues 45 in 44.
I can’t find a team I want to back here. Would be a slight lean towards the Blues but not enough to make it a tip.
Flames vs Predators
The Flames have won their last 2 games and are 3-0-2 over last 5. Over those 5 games they have scored 20 goals.
The Preds lost their last game against the Sabres which was the 3rd straight loss for them.
The Flames road record is 9-7-7 and the Preds at home have gone 9-6-3 which isn’t helping me when trying to predict an outcome here.
It’s the Preds so I’m skipping.
Tampa Bay -130
When I first handicapped this game, I thought they had the wrong team the favorite. But Seattle is coming in off a long road trip, in which they went perfect. The road win streak could add to the mental and physical fatigue here. Throw in the earlier start time. An out of conference opponent, which happens to be a top ten team. A team that ranks better than Seattle defensively and goaltending. Who’s above .500 on the road. That can hang with the Kraken offensively. Seattle just .500 at home this year. And oh yeah, Seattle goes back on the road for an in division game vs Edmonton tomorrow. I’ve talked myself into Tampa here.
Tampa Bay -130
also as a side note, lot of teams on their first game of back to backs. I believe 9 teams in total today have games tomorrow as well. So you might want to pay closer attention to goalie confirmations before locking in any plays.
Calgary is my pick for the day.
Preds struggling, last time they lost 3 in a row it stretched out into a longer losing streak. Frustrating loss to the Sabres giving up a shorty in the 3rd. No fun right now.
Flames gaining traction and while it’s been an adventure, it’s that time of the season they’re looking to get hot and they’re scoring goals which they didn’t earlier in the year.
Preds came into the Flames building earlier in the season and whooped them. CGY thought it was an embarrassing loss as they weren’t invested enough.
So, looking to correct that today and it seems like a good spot for revenge as they’re gaining confidence, and won’t let the Preds outwork them. Statistically the better team basically everywhere except goaltending, so Markstrom dropping the ball is a bit of a concern but meh, I’ve learned if you look at goalies too much in games you feel strongly about, it just turns into a lot of missed opportunities. Not like he’s a rookie or something, so fingers crossed.
1-17 Look ahead
Philly regulation -110 vs Ducks tomorrow.
This is a look ahead play on the opening lines for tomorrow’s games. Figure I’d post here because the price could be different by tomorrow. Admittedly I have looked at no actual metrics. But the price that Philly opened at, -175 ( about 63 percent win expectancy) feels low to me.
Back to back for both teams. Losses for both teams. Philly goes from facing the best team in the league to possibly the worst. The difference in opponent should immediately be recognizable. And I like taking this play after they come home off a 6-0 beat down.
Philly 17 of their 18 wins in regulation. 1-7 in the overtime/shootout results. Anaheim extremely dependent on OT/SO. Just 4 regulation wins in 44 games (9 percent!) for the ducks. Double as many in extra time. I wouldn’t like my Flyers bet if this happened to make it to extra time anyway. Which helps the regulation play on the Flyers.
Gibson played today so I’m anticipating Stolarz for the Ducks tomorrow. Just 8 starts on the year so quickly let’s go thru the game logs of his STARTS.
4-5( a win vs SJ)-4( another win vs SJ) -3-5-5-5-4(most recent start 1/6 vs SJ which also happened to be a win lol)
Bizarre he’s given up 13 goals in 3 starts vs the Sharks and beat them all three times for his only wins on the season. He also gave a goal in a period of relief vs the Sharks, that one was a Ducks loss. Also in 3 starts he’s managed to finish with a sv % better than 90 despite conceding 4 goals in each of those games. The ducks allow a shh ton of shots by opponents.
The Flyers home metrics aren’t pretty, I’ll recognize that. 2.9 GF/GP vs 3.4 GA/GP at home. So I am overlooking this on making the play. Philly has shown fight winning 7 of its last 10 though. Expecting Ersson to start. Small sample size but he has faced the Ducks already, giving up just 1 on 29 shots. I don’t know what The Ducks can throw at him second time around that won’t have them in the 2 goal range. And even if they are able to manage 3, Stolarz should be good for at least one or two more against. I anticipate this line to only move up, so I wanted to grab it now.
Flyers regulation -110 in the look ahead Jan 17th