Written by Graeme on Thursday, January 18th, 2024
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Only two games yesterday, after the Blackhawks at Sabres game was pushed to today due to the weather.
The Panthers lost to the Red Wings at home in OT, and the Habs pulled off a big win in New Jersey.
It’s the usual big Thursday slate.
Let’s get to it:
Sabres vs Blackhawks:
Not sure if the postponement of a day will really affect things. Does mean Blackhawks don’t have a day off between this and their Islanders game.
Sabres inconsistent at the moment. By the metrics, they get this done. Alas,for any value we’d have to take -1.5. Now when the Sabres win in regulation, they cover that. Their last NINE games they have covered that.
Hawks have had quite a few tight games lately and kept it close. I’d say it’s 50/50 chance if Sabres cover or not, which unfortunately is the without juice price. No play.
Bruins vs Avs:
Interesting one. Both have slight advantages in different metrics. Not seeing anything.
Flyers vs Stars:
Flyers come in off the back of a couple of really solid road performances. This should be a competitive game.
It looks to be a pretty close game. Stars metrics are inflated due to their Wild & Hawks results over the last little bit. It’s generally a fair bit closer although i’d still give the slight edge to the Stars. Not really seeing anything to bet here. It won’t surprise me if Philly win, but the way the Stars offense has been lighting things up makes it tough.
Lightning vs Wild:
It’s mental looking at the results and then the metrics. While the Wild have had a brutal run, it’s not like Tampa are leaps and bounds ahead of them. Wild better xGA for example. No surprise, Wild have a very low PDO last 10 of 0.937.
I’m going to pass on this. Lightning had a bit of a break since the last game which can be concerning, and after that Islanders win there seems to be a lot of positivity in Minnesota. Players coming back from injury is helping them too.
Senators vs Canadiens:
Nothing for this one. Habs on the B2B but last batch of results very impressive. Probably shouldn’t be that big a dog. The Sens metrics are erratic.
Capitals vs Blues:
Slight edge to the Blues. I was hoping for a solid price on them like 2.20 or something to back them, but at coinflip odds it’s a pass as the home/road split negates the metrics advantage.
Oilers vs Kraken:
Oilers look to keep the streak going against Seattle. Their offense fizzled out a bit, but woke up against the Leafs. Kraken have saw their streak ended, and have now lost two in a row.
Happy to back the Oilers here. In regulation odds are above the threshold, but I’m actually going to take them on the handicap. Think the Kraken are going to be one of those teams that have a downswing following the end of a streak. And hopefully the Oilers offense is fired up again.They were able to ride out that “slump” with the streak intact.
Oilers -1.5
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/18 8:19:25 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Leafs:
Leafs come in on a bad run. Flames have a four game winning run going. The metrics would have to be stupidly overwhelming to have me back the Flames here though. The GF% stats are convincingly in the Flames favour. Man – it’s actually kinda close I have to say. Flames able to take advantage of the high danger chances well too although Leafs aren’t too shabby in the HDCA department.
It’s close but I feel like I’d need a slightly better price.
Canucks vs Coyotes:
Canucks coming in off that Jackets loss. Couple of tight results lately and they will be glad to be home after a very long road trip.
Feel they should be able to get the victory here. Better in pretty much every metric. Very good record at home. Coyotes 8-9-3 on the road.
Schalmtz questionable tonight which is the only real negative.
The other one of course – is coming back from that long road trip. Tocchet even said it – this team is mentally fatigued. It happens – and sometimes, teams lose that first home game back.
However the Canucks have had 5 road trips this season of 3+, and they have always won their home game upon returning. This is their longest one yet of course so that’s a concern. But hey that’s why they call it gambling.
Canucks in Regulation
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.85 Odds at Bovada
USA: -118 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/18 8:19:25 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kings vs Predators:
Kings just aren’t backable at the moment Preds kinda better metrics. I wouldn’t be surprised if Preds pull off the W here but it’s just too much gamble for me.
Knights vs Rangers:
Nothing for this one.
Tampa Bay -135
I’ll take a small shot on Tampa. Though I am not confident in it at all. Gustavsson wasn’t sharp in his return for the Wild but could correct that with a game under his belt. Tampa has won 3 in a row and 6 of their last 10. That probably means they are due for a loss lol. However getting them at home for this price is too good for me to pass on and worth the shot for me.
Montreal has value at +155. Dunno if they will actually win but I wouldn’t be interested in laying -185 on Ottawa is all I’m saying.
I made Edmonton-195 vs Seattle tonight and expect them to win. However the price is all the way up to -230 so the question is just a personal preference of when the price gets too high to lay.
I believe Boston could be catching Avs at the right time but now at about 60 percent, there isn’t much value for me on that one either.
So far just Tampa and I don’t feel great about it.