Written by Graeme on Friday, January 19th, 2018
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Well while we had no bets yesterday, it was nice to see we were on the right track with all of our leans. Most of them won yet were for the most part very close so our analysis was spot on which is nice to see on what was a tricky night.
We liked Bruins/Islanders over 6.5 and a late empty netter put that one over so it would have been too close for comfort. Similar to the Jackets winning – they won, but it was after a shootout.
We liked Caps/Devils over and that one did go over but it was a tad tight for awhile. We also liked Rangers to win and they did so but it was in a tough 4-3 victory as the Sabres rode them hard as expected.
So while we missed out on advising a lot of wins last night to add to our official record, they were all tight enough that it could have all went the other way. Hopefully you followed our leans regardless and made some money.
4 out of the 5 teams returning from bye week lost and the Jackets only won via shootout. So good to see the bye week curse is alive and well. I wish we had been able to back it but despite the historical data from last year I had cold feet this time around.
It’s Friday, January 19th and only 3 games on the board as the Knights visit the Panthers coming off a huge win last night. The Habs head to Washington and the King go up against the Ducks.
Knights vs Panthers Betting Tips:
Panthers haven’t played since last Friday and now they’re going up against the best team in the NHL. The Knights have had some solid road form going for the most part and are coming off that huge Tampa victory. However they showed they can follow results like that up as last time they beat Tampa they went out and thumped the Caps 3-0 followed by the Ducks 4-1 on the road.
It’s the 2nd leg of a B2B but last time that happened for the Knights they beat the Hawks 5-4 so I’m not too concerned about that.
I’ve said it on here before though – I hate betting against the Panthers at home. They put in some real gritty performances here usually and they’re games I always hate watching. However coming off the bye week against a much better team and with Reimer letting in a lot of goals lately and being the underdogs? Hell yeah I’ll go with the Knights.
Knights to win incl OT/SO
Canadiens vs Capitals Betting Tips:
The Capitals can be a tough team to back. Even when they win the majority of their wins lately have been in overtime/shootout which really sucks when the odds don’t really play nice with that. The best I can see is 1.62 in OT/SO.
This is one however the Capitals really should win. Their skill and ability is just too much for the Habs. I’d like to say they’ll be motivated for this one being at home and after that game last night but meh – it’s the Capitals. Just another day at the office for them.
The Habs are just a mess however and Grubauer has been fairly solid lately. Habs can’t really rise up for games and I think they’re realizing their season is over.
Capitals in Regulation
Unit/Confidence Betting Tips:
(We are experimenting with adding unit/confidence to our betting tips. For more details see this post.)
Knights to win: 1u.
Capitals in reg: 1u.
Ducks to win in reg: 0.5u. With the Ducks current form and Cogliano back it should be a breeze but the Ducks are always a tough team to call and it’s a rivalry game so Kings may raise their game for it.
OHL / WHL / AHL / KHL Betting Tips:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. )
AHL Betting Tips (13-15, -2.22u): San Diego Gulls incl OT/SO at 1.80 odds.
Besides what is mentioned above, Knights 1st period might be a good bet because Cats are coming off a bye week which usually means slower start and Knights should be still in thr tempo from yesterday’s win in Tampa.
I would avoid that, just because of how the Panthers performed in the 1st period in Vegas. They were suddenly up 2-0 when no one expected it.
I will give it a small shot just because of the bye week for Cats
Fair enough. I wouldn’t be surprised. Vegas will steam roll the Cats
Thanks G.
Been staying away from any teams and gms coming back from a bye but I like the Knights chances for the same reasons. Panthers, like several teams have had a 6 day break vs 5 days for the rest. Sens the only exception with 7 (don’t know why that is)
I agree Caps should win but only if they’re motivated. Habs might play Niemi who hasn’t played since Dec 23rd with a 4.85 GA. Yikes!
* Incase you’ve been curious, of the 23 teams returning from a bye week, 10 have won and 13 have lost. Good luck tonight!
A week to the day since I had had a proper winning day (going 5-1) I went 2-0 yesterday to FINALLY win something back. The bye week next season is definitely something I’m going to avoid betting, as this was my most horrendous run ever. Apologies to those of you who tailed my losing picks. I wanted to take Knights last night, as I’m always interested when I see plus money on them, and almost took the Pens as well for the same reason. This last week threw me off so I didn’t risk it, as my bankroll could not afford another hit. Tonight I’m with Graeme-
POTD – Vegas Reg/ML (75%/85%) – I’m jumping back on vegas after seeing their game last night. Vegas went down early to the Panthers when they came to town but after going down 2-0 made a resilient come back and won. For those of you not in the know, Vegas’s manager was fired by the Panthers and several of their players are ex-Panthers. They had a point to prove, and I think they’ll do it again tonight. Like how Calgary came into Florida and beat Tampa 5-1 and then on to beat the Panthers 4-2, I like Vegas to sweep their Florida trip. If you can dominate Tampa 4-1, you can beat the Panthers. The Knights will want to notch another win after losing their two prior to last night, and with a rusty Panthers coming off the bye week after losing 4 of their last 5 home games, I see Knights taking this. Again as was the case with Calgary coming to the Panthers, do not overestimate the rest factor- Vegas really did not struggle that much with Tampa. Besides if you went on the rest factor alone, surely Tampa should have won last night, and bye week teams should be the ones winning their first games out? Nope, not the case. Similarly do not overestimate the revenge factor, simply because the Panthers lost their last time out to Vegas does not mean it won’t happen again. I feel pretty confident we will see a strong Knights effort tonight. Vegas winning in the area of 4-1/4-2.
Caps Reg/ML (75%/80%) – Considering the Caps hadn’t managed a practice and had just come off the bye-week they were not as bad last night as expected. They put up a fight, and thats a lot more than the Habs are doing right now. As Graeme says, their season is more or less over. Washington has been a force to be reckoned with at home, and I don’t think the pussycat Habs offence on the road (with 4 goals in 5 road games) is going to manage much against the Caps who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Caps smacked the Habs 6-1 at the start of the season, and I’ve seen absolutely not improvement from the Habs this season to suggest they stand a chance tonight. Grubauer or not this Habs side has won just 8 of their last 20 , and the majority of those 8 wins were against sides far weaker than the Caps. I see nothing to really support a Habs win, and again the rest factor is not about to win me over.
Ducks Reg/ML (70%/80%) – As Lion said yesterday, picking against the Kings right now isn’t anything necessarily to do with how well the other side is playing. The Pens came into last nights game, less rested and off a loss. The Ducks who inflicted that loss, come into this game with more rest and having won 4 of their last 5 at home but only 2 of their last 5 altogether. I will take Ducks simply because of how bad the Kings are right now. The Sharks came to LA and pounded the Kings, and to give that perspective the Sharks barely managed wins over the Coyotes. 5 straight losses for the kings in which they’ve conceded 3 or more goals in every one of those games. Now the Kings hit the road to a Ducks side hunting a play off spot, just one win away from matching the Kings for points, and just 3 points out from matching the Sharks and Flames for points and taking that playoff position. Motivation is there for the Ducks, home form is there for the Ducks, and having just beaten the Kings 4-2 six days ago you can beat confidence is there too. What do the Kings have going for them? Three road wins of five games against the Oilers, Canucks and Flyers. Wow, not really anything to get excited about. Yeah the Kings are also close to a playoff spot, but they’re falling right now, and I’m not about to bet that they’re going to pick themselves up suddenly tonight against a strong,motivated in form Ducks side.
I feel pretty confident about todays picks, and made them feeling a sweep. “Pride comes before a fall” , but sometimes it doesn’t and I’m hoping tonight is a 3-0 night to grow the bankroll.
GL!
Congrats on the wins! Thanks for the detailed analysis:)
Thanks! Hope tonight is the second night in a row!
I wouldn’t be shy of taking all three sides on small puck line bets either.
VGK, Caps and Ducks with 1u.
Magus, I’m not sure if I should be happy or concerned that we have the exact same picks today lol
We will see my friend!
We will see.
Well guys today i think exatly like you vegas and capitals!!!
Good luck to all!!!
I like the Caps as well in a bounce back game just hate regulation bets. Anyone else feel that so many games head into OT? I swear their is a handful a week. And it’s the ones that should breeze by with a win that end up going into OT(last night Preds). Caps are 6-2-2 L10 against Montreal and 3-0 L3. We are probably getting Grubauer in net and not Holtby. Caps are one of those teams that play to the level of the competition. I’ve seen it too many times, they’ll coast through the first two periods, go down a couple goals and come back to win in OT/SO.
Montreal is not good on the road 7-13 and when they play the Eastern Conf on the road they are 3-7 on the road. Montreal has lost three straight games overall and are 2-8 L10 so it’s sometimes scary to go against a desperate team looking to get off the losing streak.
(VGK/FLA) Florida usually plays a lot better on the road but they’ve been off for 5 days. Knights had a BIG statement win on the road @ Tampa last night. I feel like vegas bookies haven’t adjusted to the Knights, constantly dogs on the road or cheaply priced. I wouldn’t be shocked at a down game for them but let’s be serious, they rarely have one. This is truly one of the rare teams that plays 60min of hockey night in and night out.
(LA/ANA) Kings have now Lost 5 Straight and are losers of 7 of their last 10. When these two teams meet up it should truly a toss up and usually goes under. Kings are 3-6 SU on the road against the Duckies.
Hhhhmmm Lazzo or Mikey 😉 ?
Weird to see the Caps at even odds, they love playing the Habs and considering how bad the Habs are right now, you’d think the Caps are bigger favorites.
Although what’s interesting is that Niemi, in 8 starts, has never lost to the Caps in regulation.
I mean i guess it could be trap game with the Habs coming in trying to save face after that lackluster Bruins game, and the Caps coming off B2B after the bye week and not even generating 20 shots against the Devils. Last time they did that was against the Coyotes and then they lost 3-0 to Vegas. They also lost 2 in a row after the bye week last season before finding their groove again. So all in all definitely not a cakewalk more and more you look at it.
But still.. Caps could just win the game in 1 period if they decide to show up.
20 Shots and 3 goals. Quality over quantity??
Can’t score every game if you don’t generate enough 😛
Caps line just went up. When was the last time Niemi got announced and people actually bet on him ? lol
LOL trap game for sure. Habs should play looser since they’re not going anywhere and Caps often don’t show up unless it’s an important game. Personally not a game I’m playing
Niemi in net, a Habs side that has 4 goals in 5 road games. I don’t see the trap. Caps kill it at home, and love beating the Habs
Yeah i went for the Caps too and not backing down now. I hope it’s a game where if anything they start slow and then at some point realize enough is enough this Habs team sucks ^^
Hey SDB do you know how to easily stream games on an iPhone?
other than NHL app, no. at home I use sportspass.ca. you can sign up and get it for free if you pay with paypal. all home and away feeds
Hey OT do you know how to stream games easily on an iPhone?
I’ve learned over the years it’s not worth sweating potential trap plays.
Either it’s:
– Welp I bet it and it was a trap. Just a nice reminder Vegas knows better.
– I didn’t bet it and then just mad at myself for missing out on a big +EV opportunity.
I much prefer the former – it can be a nice little reminder/reality check and forces you to work that much harder.
For me personally missing out on backing a trap team, or worst yet, betting against them is one of the more annoying things. But only if i think i had a strong case for the trap team but then chickening out in the end.
So yeah, this game is not one of those, if the Habs win im just going to tip my hat and admit i didn’t really see it happening, despite some things that could work in their favor.
But you’re right, the NHL is so tight that if you’re constantly looking for traps then every game can feel like one and really mess up your head.
What really is in the Habs favour tonight? It sure as hell isn’t form, health, goaltending or historical success in Washington. If anything its one days extra rest. If they win, they win- but there is nothing to go on that suggests they will.
On paper not much, but effort could be, or “hunger” as you’ve called it. And the Caps could be in a spot where they don’t get their game going well enough to take over and have that killers instinct, for reasons i mentioned earlier. So in other words, more about the Caps being sleepy than the Habs playing a heck of a game.
But like i said i don’t realistically see them winning this game. This whole thing became a bigger deal than i meant it to be 😛
Just a side note – Vegas is the most profitable team to bet in the last 23 years. The team that comes closest is the Blackhawks of 2012-13 who went on to win the Stanley Cup.
Good night for a change.
I’m taking Knights again.
Parlay Knights reg + Caps reg
pays 4 to 1
GLTA SDB
At my bookie Knights reg @2.55 and Caps reg @2.05 – parlay @5.22. Do you think it’s worth a shot?
I have that play tonight
Caps reg Ducks ML is the parlay
I’d much sooner parlay Caps and Ducks
Tailing this. Seems solid at a little over 4-1, I like it.
Definitely tailing. Getting 4.1x money.
parlay Caps reg Ducks ML
Done that too. Also done Vegas ML, Caps Reg, Ducks ML
WINS in reg: Vegas and Washington
Lean: UNDER for Anaheim
LA and Anaheim will likely see between 5 and 7 goals, it’s a tossup, not worth betting, in a crash and bounce game like hockey. Anaheim’s healing up well and showing lots of aggression. Washington, by all the stats, trends, home/away, injuries (none tonight?), should slaughter Montreal tonight, if they turn up with that intent. It’s the Caps second game back after the break and Montreal’s fourth game after a break. Montreal clearly wasn’t helped by the break. The Caps played Jersey, and while only getting 19 shots on net accomplished, that should remain a novelty in their records this year. They win tonight. Vegas is the real deal. It’s their fourth game after the break, and Florida’s second. Florida, like Montreal, wasn’t helped by the bye week. Vegas is probably still ticked for having lost to the lonely Oilers and that close one to Nashville. They can rock and roll in the Sunshine State, win a game, catch a tan, snag some fresh oranges and call it a great week.
Any arguments not to wager the house car and what ever else I can find on Vegas ? So much emotion and motivation for Vegas and their coach to hammer Florida tonight.
Great odds to bout
I’d wager a normal day’s betting amount on them, Florida can be good at home. It’s a back to back game for Vegas, but they’ve done great on the road this year. I don’t believe in splurging on bets if it’s an away game and back to back for the Visitor. Your choice.
Lots of sarcasm here but do love this spot for Vegas. This team is the real deal and should put in a very good effort for its coach that was humiliated by the Florida organization with the circus firing last year.
I’ll watch this game live if anyone wants info shoot message my way.
Vegas or this game to OT is the play here boyzz
They win tonight they go top of the NHL. Motivation enough?
I’m starting to feel the over is a safer play. Everything begs the Vegas pick. My gut is starting to feel it’s a shoot out game with a good chance we see OT
We have had plenty of nights where the worse team won so be careful folks
Good advice. I concur:)
GL tonight.
All over Vegas tonight.
1u on ML.
Good luck everyone.
My bets for tonight:
Parlay Knights+Caps (Regulation Win)
Knights (Regulation Win)
Caps (Regulation Win)
Hope I don’t regret this style of betting tonight…
Good Luck to all!
I have decided to play to only one game and it is Panthers vs Vegas. I ll put my today limit to panthers. Panthers win ML.
Good luck!
Nice call
Wash PL think they will play tight defense tonight very large
Stars nailed a late goal last night but still not hit a 3 way parlay, yet.
Got Knights / Capitals / was thinking Ducks but went with Under 6.5 for Ducks vs Kings
Like a 0.3 unit bet
Good Luck All
Hello, i will play Capitals regulation.
I also took Panthers regulation win, i know they can do it and trust half of the unit on them at home – but i would not recommend that bet for you 🙂
I’m with you on Florida?
I personally like the over in the Caps/MTL game, just seems safer to me. Caps have been leaking a lot of goals lately and the habs are just bad atm.
And I’ve noticed teams are a bit rusty in the back when coming in from a break so I’m taking Vegas and the over in that game as well.
E. Kuznetsov to score with 3 units
Hello from NYC
VGK had a hard fight against Tampa last night ..
Florida +105 Regulation
Washington Capitals -0.5 (+140) 1P
Florida Panthers -0.5 (+175) 1P
1st period play looks good. Florida handing it to them so far. Panthers better team that period
Today’s picks: Vegas ML and Caps ML
Best of luck everyone!
Does anyone know how to stream live games on your cell phone? I’m looking for something easy, just click and watch.. I’m not very computer or internet literate.. thank you!
If you have access to it, NHL.TV is excellent and I’ve never had issues with it – well worth the subscription each season if you watch a lot of hockey. Otherwise your best resource is reddit.com/r/nhlstreams/ there’s a lot there about streaming and I believe people post streams etc.
HOLY COW!!! What a HORRIBLE NIGHT!!