Written by Graeme on Sunday, January 19th, 2025
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Well it was a disappointing one yesterday. Sucks to go 2-0 on Thursday then to give it all back.
Got lucky with the Red Wings/Tampa being a push at least. Looks like my analysis was right on that one in regards to Wings struggling to score. I ignored that and convinced myself to go with it and we were fortunate to get the push there (although that 3rd period was gutting not to get a winner).
Habs/Leafs – one of the rare times where chasing the best odds ISN’T +EV. If you had bet that one at Bet365 you’ll be a happy camper, as despite 0.08 worse odds, they would have paid out the win when the Habs were up 3-0.
Very disappointing ones from the two road picks, the Blues and the Oilers. What a terribe performance from the Oilers specifically who could barely muster any offense throughout the game. Also my god the refereeing was terrible there.
Annoying to see the Flyers win come in too as that was my “dog of the day”.
Let’s have a quick look at todays. With back to back situations and the skelping yesterday I’m not really feeling plays so I’ll just look at the metrics and give a quick report.
Devils vs Senators:
Devils just aren’t a backable team at the moment. The metrics ain’t pretty on them either. Very slight lean on the Sens there might be value there although Forsberg in net likely negates that even with the Devils woeful offense.
Canadiens vs Rangers
After the way it went yesterday I could see it all come crashing down for the Habs today. This is a rare game where the data actually supports the over nice and easy. If you’re looking for a play today that might be it.
Stars vs Red Wings:
Dallas another team I’d be wary of backing right now and the metrics don’t support a regulation play anyway.
Im gonna go with Montreal reg and under 6 if Jakub Dobes on net.