Written by Scott on Monday, January 20th, 2025
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Only 3 games yesterday
The Sens picked up their 2nd win in a row beating the Devils 2-1 and have won 5 of their last 6. The Habs vs Rangers game was a back and forth battle but it was Montreal who came out 5-4 winners in overtime. The final game of the night was the Stars beating the Red Wings 4-1
9 games today. And it looks like many of them have some lopsided odds so let’s see what we can find.
Sharks vs Bruins
Sharks are bad and the Bruins aren’t any better at the moment.
Last 10 Sharks are 3-7, Bruins are 3-5-2.
Would have to take the Bruins -1.5 to get the odds up and I’m not doing that. I’m staying away.
Wild vs Avalanche
These teams played 10 days ago and the Avalanche won 6-1.
Wild come into this game on a 3 game losing skid and are in 2nd in the Central.
The Avalanche are 6-3-1 last 10 and are in 4th in the Central.
Would have to take the Avs -1.5. The data does have the Avs better in most categories but the XGF numbers don’t show an overwhelming advantage needed to cover the -1.5
Sabres vs Kraken
These teams played each other last week and the Kraken won that 6-2.
The Sabres are one of the worst teams in the league this season. So I’m not going with them.
The Kraken have a losing record and are in 6th in the Pacific. They are hard to back when they lose more than they win.
Blues vs Knights
Nothing here. I learned my lesson with the Knights.
Lightning vs Leafs
Lightning on a 2 game win streak, are 5-4-1 in last 10 and are 10-10-2 on the road.
Leafs also on a 2 game win streak, are 7-3-0 in last 10 and 18-9-0 at home.
The odds for this are a coin flip and looking at the data I see why as they are close.
Also looked at the Over but both teams are in the top 10 for GAPG. So i have to avoid this game.
Jackets vs Islanders
Nothing here.
Jackets have a better record in last 10 and overall but the Isles have better numbers in Corsi, SF/60 and GA/60.
Hurricanes vs Blackhawks
This is a game where I know I’m leaning towards the Canes without having to dig into any stats.
But I look at their road record of 9-11-2 and that has me worried. The Hawks don’t have a great home record going 10-13-0 but it’s better than their road record.
Would have to take the Canes -1.5 and with their road results I just can’t do it
Jets vs Utah
The Jets are still in 1st in the Central and they have a 7 point lead over the 2nd place team.
Utah is 3-6-1 in last 10 and 7-11-4 at home.
They played once this season and the Jets won that one 3-0.
Against teams in the Central the Jets are 12-4 and Utah is 5-6-2.
The Jets have better numbers in SF/60, SA/60, GF/60 and GA/60. So as long as Hellebuyck gets the start I’m fine taking them here. The odds are just slightly over our minimum but let’s go with it.
Jets win incl OT/SO if Hellebuyck starts
Ontario: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -145 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/20 8:24:16 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Penguins vs Kings
Pens are hurting right now. They are 2-5-3 in last 10 and on the road they’ve gone 7-11-5.
The Kings have had a decent season so far. Their home play has been crazy. They have gone 14-2-1 in Los Angeles. They will be looking to extend their 9 game home win streak.
They also rank well. They’re 2nd in GAPG, 1st in SOGA and rank better in all stats vs the Pens with faceoff percentage being the exception.
The Pens data is closer than I would like. They have better CF numbers, SF/60 has these teams within 0.20 and GF/60 has only a 0.03 difference.
Would have to take the Kings in regulation, which should come through, but some numbers are to close to give me the confidence to make it a tip.
Hi Graeme and Scott. First of all, thank you very much for all the help you give us with our bets, and congratulations for your excellent work.
Although I know that you only bet on single bets, I would like to ask you, whenever possible, if you could share a double of games that you are most confident in Over 5.5. Thank you in advance for your attention.