Written by Graeme on Saturday, January 20th, 2024
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One thing I don’t think that gets talked about enough in the world of betting, are those extenuating circumstances that lead to you not making a bet that would have lost. It’s always good to recognize those.
On Thursday for example – I liked the Flames. But I just didn’t like the odds. If the sportsbooks had given us better odds, I would have taken that bet and while mathematically, I’d say it was an +EV play, it would have ended up losing.
Last night based on the data etc there was no reason not to take the Panthers. While you would factor in their results leading into it – that looked like a great spot for them to get a good little win. In a vaccuum, I take that play. As it is, the Panthers had already burned me twice in the past week, and that was enough to put me off – and as luck would have it, they lost 6-4.
Always worth just taking the time to look at things like that and appreciate those moments.
A heads up that I likely won’t have any tips tomorrow and won’t be making a post. So if you have plays for tomorrow, feel free to comment them in this post.
Let’s get into the 12 game Saturday slate.
Sabres vs Lightning:
Buffalo come in with two wins in a row – albeit over the Hawks & Sharks. Tampa come in off the back of a couple of convincing, high scoring wins. This seems very close with maybe a slight edge to Tampa, and that’s exactly how the bookies have priced it.
Flyers vs Avs:
Flyers come in on the back of some fine results. They have regained their form and it’s nice to see. Avs coming in off that Bruins loss.
Bookies seem to have this one priced correctly as well. Avs do have the more defensive frailties, but their offense more than makes up for it.
Coyotes vs Predators:
It’s been a bad time for the Coyotes this calendar year, although their last ferw results shows some promise. Preds are a bit hard to figure out.
By the metrics – I mean, the Preds are just the better team, period. They check all the boxes. Preds with a positive road form of 12-8-1, although Coyotes solid home record of 13-9-0. What’s notable is the Preds are 10-2-1 on the road at the moment. Very impressive.
Preds games can be quite tight which is a concern.
I dunno. It’s one of those games where I a team does look good, but I’m feeling a bit iffy about it. I just don’t have the confidence in Nashville to back them here, but if you’re on the fence, the data says they should get the W.
Senators vs Jets:
Sens come in off that big Habs win – they have had some fun games lately. Jets bounced back strong against the Islanders after their Flyers loss which was nice to see.
It’s so weird – sometimes a game comes up and I look at the schedule and the words “let-down spot” just flash before my eyes.
Looking at the data, Sens do have a better CF/60 and FF/60. Better CF & FF % overall, actually. Goals scored is the same, Jets slightly better xGF. Where the Sens struggfle is their defensive issues and goaltending.
I like the Jets here. Although they are reliant a good bit on goaltending, their defense is doing the job as well. Scheifele is with them although won’t be playing.
If this is a let-down spot then so be it. Jets actually have a weak record against Canadian teams this season of 1-4 I think it is, with the lone win being an OT win over the Oilers. That does seem a bit too little data but does give me concerns. This is one where I’ll be mad at myself tomorrow if it doesn’t come in. But I did a deep dive into previous seasons, and that shouldnt be a concenr.
Jets win in regulation if Hellebuyck in net
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +109 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/20 9:01:57 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Devils vs Stars:
I’m fine passing on this one. Stars do have the edge offensively.
Bruins vs Canadiens:
I’m fine passing on this as would have to be Bruins -1.5 and we know the Habs can run teams close. If Boston win in regulation they do cover the spread usually fwiw. THe data leans towards Bruins -1.5 as well.
Canucks vs Leafs:
Nothing for this one. Very close one.
Blues vs Capitals:
They just played. I never back these.
Sharks vs Ducks:
God no.
Flames vs Oilers:
Oilers offense ticking again just in time with the Battle of Alberta. Flames come in off that Leafs loss but their offense has generally been performing well too.
Natural to lean towards the over for this game. It’s 7, which is no surprise. Both offenses have the capabilities, but the goaltending metrics are a bit of a concern. Oilers especially, GA/60 of 1.48 over last 10, SCGA/60 of 1.28. Even the Flames SCGA/60 of 1.98.
My gut says that doesn’t matter and both offenses get going here though and light it up. Flames haven’t played too many teams lately with that sort of SCGA. They played the Flyers and only got 2 against them. Yeeeah I am gonna pass.
Knights vs Penguins:
Knights on a roll. But this Pens offense has some good metrics. I am going to pass.
Kings vs Rangers:
Nothing here. Rangers probably should win but just too inconsistent atm. At 2.00 odds it’s probably very tiny +EV.
Dunno why I’m being so picky , but I’m struggling to find a play today.
I was slightly higher on Tampa and Colorado, but not to the level of making a bet as the lines are super close to where I made them. Both teams on the road too.
Winnipeg was the closest play for me so far. I made them -160. They opened -130 and I probably should have just gotten down a half unit on that. They are now up to -150 range, and my pettiness of not being able to get the best number and value has kicked in.
Connor back and seemed to pick up where he left off. The goal was an empty netter ,but still a good confidence boost as he won’t have to worry too much about getting one and can just play. 19 minutes of ice time, 5 and a half minutes on the Power Play, and 6 shots were the more telling signs to me. And he gets decent rest between games to recover and condition with that game being played back on Tuesday.
Arizona as a home dog I thought about. But I like Nashville’s more recent wins. Preds do have a recent loss to the Ducks, but also 2 wins over Dallas, to add to wins over the Islanders and Kings this month. I do have Nashville currently 2 percent better than Arizona. Arizona also seems to be trending down, not getting better as the season goes on. Arizona has a wild 7-5 win already over the Preds, but that was over 2 months ago. So while I would say possibly “slight” value on the home dog, it could be marginal or non existent.
Also I would now be taking the slightly worse team to win two coin flip games vs Nashville. Which is such a small sample during such a long season, it’s easily possible. But it makes the play less sharp and the value not as good as I originally perceived. So the price would have to climb more for me to consider a play on the Coyotes.
Boston at home seems like the right side, albeit heavily taxed already.
Devils may have some value, but not enough for me to overlook some of their issues. Calgary as well now being up to +136. I try to reiterate as often as possible, that doesn’t mean I think Devils and Flames will win. I just think the prices on the other side have gotten so high, these would be the only sides I would look to take.
Vegas is an interesting one. Even with the injuries, Vegas opened -120 favorites over Pittsburgh. They’ve now been bet down to -102. I’ve been higher than most on the Penguins this year. I felt their record didn’t match some of the metrics they were putting up. They do get thin after Crosby, Guentzel, Malkin, and Rust. But that’s still a strong four that can carry them thru games.
I have no clue how to price Vegas without Hill, Eichel, Karlsson, Carrier, and Amadio. But did the books get the opening line that wrong and not know how to factor in the injuries either? I’m not sure. Of course that’s assuming thats the only reason for the line movement. Which I’d have to think it’s a pretty significant factor. I’ll be curious as to the result of this game and where the line closes as there is still tons of time left before the puck drops. Vegas getting to plus money may get at least a half unit play from me.
The battle for bragging rights in California should have the whole world tuning in, without much else going on in the world of sports today. It’s a tradition that dates back all the way to…uhhh whenever that Disney movie came out. Who better to represent the sport of hockey and everything it stands for than these two proud, storied franchises full of memorable moments and history? The future of the league and the sport as a whole is in good hands with clubs like these on display. Being from NJ, I rank this classic battle right up there with The Snoopy Bowl. These are the games even us gamblers can just sit back with the family and enjoy without any action on it.
Finally I thought the Kings perhaps turned a corner with the road win over Carolina. However they followed that up with two straight L’s vs Dallas and Nashville. Maybe you can write off the Dallas performance being on a Road/Road back to back. But they did have Talbot allow 5 goals in that game, as he continues to crater back down to earth after his amazing start to the season. He was bound to regress off those early season numbers. But now winless in 6 starts in January, they need him to get back to at least a serviceable level.
Rangers do have the back to back tomorrow so may go with Quick again vs his former team. As a Ranger fan, I’ve felt the Rangers have slightly over achieved so far this season. I also have no confidence whatsoever in Quick. Yet somehow he still has solid numbers and even better ones than Shesterkin. Shesterkin has been inconsistent.
When I look at Quicks numbers though, I don’t really understand how he’s getting it done. Only 5 Quality Starts (36 percent which is not good). Also his Game Logs. Has lost 4 straight. Has conceded 3 or more in 9 of his 14 starts. 4 or more in 4 of his last 8. Shit the last good game you can say he had was vs this Kings team and he probably hasn’t had a good one since. I refuse to count the game vs the Ducks.
He’s also only played 2 games in January (both losses) so far. It also seems like the Rangers are acknowledging he’s a bit of fools gold, by his lack of playing time. Of course the Rangers could start Shesterkin here, making this rant on Quick completely useless. But I am predicting with the back to back and the way Quick left the Kings organization he gets the nod here.
I made The Kings -130 and they are currently down at about -115. Talbot has his own issues that I’d like to see him work through. But if I were to get confirmation on a Quick vs Rittich matchup in net, I would look towards potentially playing the Kings at the current price.
Just nothing sticking out today as a definite play for me. I’ll be monitoring potential plays on Winnipeg, Vegas if they can get to plus money, and maybe the Kings after seeing goalie matchups announced and what price the Kings are at then. At least I got that Duck- Sharks game to keep me entertained on days like this!
Good to know it’s not just me ha. I really struggled to find plays as well today.
Lol even better would be when you get all these leans that push you to a side but you can’t pull the trigger on any of them for one reason or another. Then the results come in and 80 percent of em go exactly the way you drew it up in your mind. So I fire on em all the next day and none do lol.
I know that’s the opposite scenario of what you touched on in your opening, and being able to avoid potential losing bets by not reaching for teams that don’t meet the criteria. And I couldn’t agree more with listening to your gut and avoiding the loss when something is telling you don’t bet that.
But it is that fine line when looking for plays that I ask myself. Am I chasing a bet and trying to talk myself into it just to have a play after doing all the work? Or am I being too safe? Worried of feeling foolish because a play I wanna take and publicly advocate may not come through?
I will say this season I’ve been able to turn the page and move on to the next day way better then in years past. I’ve figured out my bankroll management and expectations better as well. Which allows me to take losses or missed opportunities as learning experiences. I’m a firm believer in, with anything that you choose to do, you have to get the reps in.