Written by Graeme on Saturday, January 21st, 2017
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It was an interesting night last night in the NHL.
Like I said yesterday – the bookies were taking a ton of action on the Over 5 in the Blackhawks/Bruins game yet weren’t changing the line. I saw some sportsbooks state as high as 97% of the betting was on that Over. Hawks won it in a tight 1-0 affair in a nice little reminder that the bookies know best.
The Hurricanes/Penguins game was Over 6.5 and that one had 8 goals in it. I believe that’s the 4th game this week where the line was at least 6 and it went over every time.
The two big dogs I was leaning towards, Blackhawks and Predators, both won. Both were very tight games though so I’m not kicking myself. Talbot racked up 42 saves in that one and it was an exciting way to end the night. The Devils lost to the Habs.
Canadiens vs Sabres Betting Tips:
I’m not fully sold on the Canadiens at the moment but it’s hard to argue against their statistics and record at the Bell Centre. This is expected to be a tight game but I think the Canadiens will prevail. Regardless of the struggles of Price at the moment I don’t think the Sabres offense has what it takes to beat him enough to win this game.
I can see this being a close game but I’m going to take Canadiens in regulation.
Canada: 1.90 Odds at BetOnline..
USA: Best Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at BetOnline..
Leafs vs Senators Betting Tips:
These two teams are usually good for a high scoring game so we generally start with the Over 5.5 and then try to argue against it.
It’s hard to argue against this one though. Leafs have had some tremendous performances lately however they’re still conceding goals a lot and seeing lots of high scoring games. Senators are a solid team who will be a tough match-up for the Leafs and we can’t see this one being a goalie clinic. Morgan Reilly is out still which is helpful too.
Over 5.5 Goals
Canada: 2.01 Odds at BetOnline..
USA: Best odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 2.01 Odds at BetOnline..
Close Pick:
We were close to a third pick today but ultimately decided against it. But I wanted to write a bit about the thought process.
Initially we looked at Capitals in regulation. They’re playing the best hockey of their season at the moment. They bounced back strong after that Penguins loss to beat the Blues 7-3 on the road.
The Dallas Stars continue to battle with inconsistency. The concern is that they can be highly competitive at times – like the Rangers and Wild and Kings games. With Capitals 1.71 at OT/SO we were tempted by regulation based on the Caps performances lately – they should wrap this one up in regulation.
What put us off was the Stars random competitive games lately, and their record over the Caps. They’ve won the last 9 games against Washington. While we’re not going to make a pick based on a Stars 2-1 victory from 7 years ago it’s still something we like to look into. It’s an indicator that the Stars raise their game against the Caps.
More importantly when the Capitals were playing that amazing hockey last year, they had a 5 game winning streak busted by the Stars. Caps then went on to win 4 more so that’s an indicator that no matter how the Capitals are performing, the Stars can bring it.
That made us look at the Over. However so many Capitals games this year have seen them win by shutting out their opponents. With the Stars inconsistent offense we could see this being a 6-4 game just as likely as we could see it being a 2-0 game. End of the day there’s just enough negatives to put us off either pick.
Mathematical/Experimental Betting Systems:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. Previous Records: OHL 15/16 28-15 (+17.15u)
OHL Betting Tips(16-12, +3.08u): Owen Sound Attack -1.5 at 1.71 odds.
WHL Betting Tips(22-22, -4.02u): Brandon Wheat Kings incl OT/SO 2.33, Victoria Royals incl OT/SO 1.86,
AHL Betting Tips(21-14, +6.08u): Utica Comets incl OT/SO 2.10. Lehigh Valley Phantoms in regulation at 2.15 odds.
OHL, WHL & AHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
-Blue Jackets looking real good today on the PL and Over
– Flyers on the PL and Over also
– Sharks PL and Over …
> Canadiens in regulation
> Leafs/Sens OVER 5.0
> Sharks -1.5
> I really like these odds for the Islanders – What do you guys think?
Coaching Change + Momentum against a Kings team who have been poor on the road. I like it.
Berube is in net……
What do you think about over5,5 in Jets-Blues?
Guyz, dont you think that tonight Dallas is obviuously cant lose in Reg? 1X is my bet just because of historical results…
The Canes have won 7 of the last 10 games against the Blue Jackets but the Jackets just beat them a few days ago. Historical results should be considered but it’s not as important as recent data in my opinion.
This is what I am talking about. 7 out of 10 is not 0 loses in regulation at home since 1998:)
They were so close to win once more. If there were no this 2 pp… Sad Dallas played so well this time.
Never answer my question on the under in devils game??
Still not answering eh?
why do you ask me about upper guys thoughts ???
Some great days lately with 7-1 past two days
Tonight’s tips
Caps in reg
Isles Vs Kings under 5.5
Flyers Vs Devils under 5
Leafs Vs Sens over 5
GLTA!
Flyers and Devils under ??
What are your angles for this pick.
I capped it at 5-2 Flyers..
I see both off your points. NHL is so unpredictable and exciting, that’s what makes it so exciting. I watch every game and analyse it, and my tips are based on my opinions and thoughts. If you want, I can comment on my picks and angles for tonight, despite what result we’ll 😉
I watch every game and analyse it. These tips are based on opinions about the teams featuring each other and recent gameplay both at defence, offence and goalies form 😉
Same question to Isles due to it goaltender confirmed. Not the best one.
with on the Ottawa/leafs over, but did play the over in the wsh/dallas game. I understand why your staying away from the game, but for me Dallas goaltender’s have been questionable all year. I believe this one can get to 6 as my o/u numbers suggest it should be listed 6.5. All I can say is score you puckers..:)
I’m still thinking abou tonight’s action. Blue Jackets in reg? I’m not feeling like it at 1.8, even though I think it’s pretty likely.
In the Sharks game you would have to take Sharks-1.5 for a decent odd, and that didn’t work out for me in the recent tries, so I’ll try to avoid such low odds for home favourites. Also, there is a debutant in net for the Avs so I am not betting against him just yet.
I like the Caps ml, the Isles ml and actually I think the Ducks can get the W as well, but I won’t go for all three, likely one or two.
The Canes goalie situation doesn’t look good atm, Ward is struggling and Leighton’s been awful in the AHL lately, not to mention his stats in the NHL this year.
If that wasn’t the case this would be a good surprise spot for the Canes in my opinion, as the Blue Jackets have some frustration in their game right now, but the team with worse goaltending always find a way to lose.
Now if the Blue Jackets don’t go with Bob then it’ll be more interesting.
I like 3 in reg. : Blues, Stars and Ducks.
If I remember correctly, you mostly tale the underdogs (or so to say teams with higher odds) to win in regulation. I do not know your record, but I am very curious how it works out for you in the long run.
Last year was ended positive for me. In this year my balance is negative, but with one winning combo situation become good for me. For exeple, tonight final odd is 25.5.
So you are playing parlays only?
Now yes. In the past i played also single bets but starting with ths year only parlays. Of course if in one night i like only one game i bet single.
Im going Blues all the way.
They generally bounce back well after ugly losses, and they don’t need to deal with Allen’s sorry ass now that Pheonix Copley makes his NHL debut – who by the way – went like 97% save pct in his last 2 AHL starts and has been good down there this year.
Blues got it going on the road (finally) lately and healthy Blues vs Jets without Laine & Myers – yeah they’re the better team.
Also the Jets have been awful defensively at home as soon as they start feeling good about their game and the visiting team is sharp and plays with desperation. This game fits the mold pretty well.
Copley is in net for STL @Arto Reinikainen:disqus
Yup, like i mentioned above 😉
Ah sorry ^^ Overlooked it… “overlooked” – don’t know if this is a real word LOL
I watched this game and cannot believe how disinterested the Blues were in this game and how poorly they played in front of Copley. They might as well ride Hutton because Allen is a basket case. Their goalie situation might just wreck their season. I think Hitchcock will be on his way out soon or at least after the season.
Yeah, disappointing for sure. Very uncharacteristic for the Blues. Although they had their chances and Pavelec played well, they looked like they were skating in mud and some guys were falling all over the place.
I guess it was a tough spot for Copley to come in especially because the Jets did have their offense going in the last few games, but still. I guess the Blues just aren’t that good this year. They’ve been underachieving all season long.
It’s common knowledge Hitchcock will be out after this season. You have to wonder if that affects the teams motivation to buy into the system. He’s been there so long it feels like the players are just waiting for him to get out.
My picks for tonight – what a great hockey night 🙂
Blues reg.
Caps reg.
Habs reg.
Leafs/Sens O5.5 (incl. OT/SO)
Isles/Kings U5.5 (incl. OT/SO)
Flyers/Devils U5.0 (incl. OT/SO)
GLTA.
Went 1-1 last night.
Tonight i like:
Leafs/Sens Over — Anderson has been giving up some goals of late and there’s just no way Condon continues to play the way he has of late.The Over is 11-4 in L15 between the teams. They combine for 65 shots per game. Sens have a pretty good PP unit, so I see some hot rubber being flung around. 4-3 Leafs.
LAKings ML – Isles have won two straight but haven’t gotten three in a row in a while now. I think the shine off having a new coach behind the bench will go away here. Kings 11-4 vs Isles L15 matchups. Give me the grind it out style of the Kings in a sleepy 2-1 game.
Stars/Caps Over – Caps have had their troubles against the Stars for some reason. It’s a weird match up for them I guess. Dallas is 9-0-1 vs Wash in L10. I don’t have the cojones to back the Stars and go against the Caps hot streak, but I do know this: Caps will score at least 4 goals.
Good luck!
good call on the Caps game. what do you have for Sunday?
I’m on the Pens TT O2.5. The odds aren’t terrific but they should at least get 3 here.
Boston/Pitt O 5.5 – last 3 matchups have averaged seven goals a game.
Still waiting on goalie announcements. I lean Ottawa, Isles, Hawks/Van Under.
Good luck today!