Written by Scott on Monday, January 23rd, 2023
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We ended up having 1 tip yesterday and it was loss.
Had the Hawks to beat the Kings but the Kings won 2-1. The Hawks offense dried up here and Graeme mentioned that it may happen. The had scored 18 goals in the previous 4 games heading into this one but had only the one here.
We had the Devils to win in regulation if Jarry wasn’t in net for the Penguins. He got the start so we didn’t have a bet for this game. The Devils won 2-1 in overtime.
The Bruins beat the Sharks 4-0 for their 5th win in a row. The Jets scored 3 goals in 8:31 of the 1st and held on to beat the Flyers 5-3 and the Coyotes beat the Knights 4-1 with Keller scoring the hat trick.
Only 4 games for us tonight.
Islanders vs Leafs
The Isles are in a funk at the moment. They have gone 2-5-3 and lost their last 4 games.
The Leafs lost their last game in OT to the Canadiens and are 5-3-2 over last 10.
The Isles road record isn’t very good going 10-11-3 where the Leafs home play has been great going 17-3-4.
The Leafs score the 9th most goals per game and allow the 5th least, the Isles rank 24th in GPG and are 9th in GAPG.
They played already this season and the Isles won that game 3-2 in overtime.
With the Isles on a 4 game losing skid and the Leafs at home where they have played well I’m going to take them here.
Leafs in regulation
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -150 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/23 8:52:00 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Rangers
The Panthers have won their last 2 games and Lyon started both with Knight and Bobrovsky both out. They are 7-2-1 over last 10. They rank 8th in GPG and 2nd in shots on goal and are 11-14-2 away from Florida.
The Rangers are 6-2-2 over last 10. Two stats that jump out from their play this season is ranking 4th in GAPG and 7th in SOGA. At home they have gone 11-9-4.
They played once and the Rangers won 5-3 on New Years day in Florida.
I was leaning towards a Rangers win but the Panthers are playing well too so its easier for me to skip this.
Sabres vs Stars
Both teams are 5-4-1 over last 10 and on 2 game win streaks.
This game has potential to be a high scoring one. The Sabres are tied for 1st in GPG and the Stars are 7th. The Sabres are ranked 23rd in goals allowed per game but the Stars are 2nd. It’s that stat that has me worried about the over.
The Stars last 2 wins were both 4-0 shutouts and the have a 3rd of that score in the 4th last game they played. That’s 3 shutouts in 4 games which is great for the Stars but has me put off of an over play.
On the road the Sabres are 12-7-1 and at home the Stars are 13-5-3.
The Stars are favored but I could see this one going either way. The Sabres could put up 6-7 as they can do which makes this tricky.
Jackets vs Flames
The Jackets have had a terrible season. They are in last place in the league and rank in the high 20’s and 30’s in most stats.
The Flames are 5-3-2 over last 10 and are tied with the Avs for the 8th spot in the West.
The Jackets are really bad as a road team going 3-15-1 which is a big reason they are so low in the standings. The Flames have gone 13-8-2 in Calgary.
The played back in December and the Jackets won that one 3-1 in Columbus.
The odds make this unplayable. We would have to take the Flames -2.5 and I’m not doing that.
New York Rangers Chris Kreider to score +120
It was between him and Mika Zibanejad. Ultimately going with Kreider so hopefully that doesn’t bite me. I think the opportunity will be there against Lyon if he keeps shooting the puck.
Toronto John Tavares to score +160.
Not as confident in this one because he is going up against a better goalie in Sorokin. Over his last 5 and 10 splits, Shooting the puck more than any forward on the team besides maybe Nylander. 5 goals over his last 10 however zero in his last 5. The goal should be coming soon. Dunno how much the fact that it’s the Islanders plays into it anymore and being at work I really can’t look it up. Still like it at the price I’m getting him at. Feel more confident in the Kreider play because of the goalie match up.
Took the Rangers -130 yesterday when it opened. I think Lyon was a bit fortunate in the Wild game that they couldn’t capitalize more against him. Wilds 5 on 5 play was a bit sporadic at times. Also some bone head penalties specifically Hartman. Lot of first minute and last minute goals by Florida in that game. If we get a full game effort by Rangers, I like their chances. However, as I’m posting now I see the Rangers have jumped to -155. I personally would not take them at the current price and if I had to choose it would be a no play for me.
NYR Kreider to score +120
Tor John Tavares to score +160
Look Ahead Tampa Bay -155 vs Minnesota 1-24
I’m worrying about a little jet lag still here by the Lightning. The Edmonton game was a big battle. Not too concerned about the results from the Flames game. That was the third road game in four days. And the last game of a five game in 8 days road trip. I believe it was also an earlier start time if I remember correctly.
However losing the last two games should leave a bad taste in their mouth. Returning home where they’ve won 77 percent of their games should help as well. Boston comes in on Thursday and the Lightning will want to have some confidence going into that one. Sometimes that can be a look ahead spot but I don’t think that will be the case here.
I’m anticipating a Fleury vs Vasilevskiy matchup here so hopefully that’s what I get. I’m also anticipating this line to only go higher on Tampa Bay so I wanna lock it in at the -155 now. I made Tampa Bay -185 in my handicap so I feel like I’m getting about 4.5 percent of value here.
Tampa Bay -155
Buffalo +120 half unit
Might be too high here on Buffalo but I’m seeing value. Might not be giving St. Louis enough respect. 2nd game of road back to back for Buffalo. Anderson played game one. I’m hoping to get Binnington to start for the Blues and if it’s Griess, I might actually consider buying out. I do anticipate money coming on Buffalo especially after the win over the Stars.
St. Louis opened -140. Roughly 58 percent win expectancy. Granted I don’t know how much a factor the back to back for Buffalo counts towards the line. Typically 5 percent goes to the home ice advantage. So if this is a neutral game they’d make the Blues a 53 percent favorite or close to -115. While the two teams are close, I’d personally make the Sabres the favorite on neutral ice and have them ranked slightly higher in my power rankings.
I’ll pay attention to the goalie confirmations and the Blues starting lineups as we get closer to game time. But currently I have to play at least a half unit on the Sabres to win. Briefly thought about Buffalo in regulation at +170, but feel the money line gives me enough value as is.
Early plays for January 24th are
Tampa Bay -155
Buffalo +120 half unit
Other Thoughts on January 24th Opening Lines
There’s other opening lines I was monitoring but haven’t made moves on. Arizona at -140 home vs the Ducks should probably be taken. However with so many games today, I really don’t feel like questioning myself on why out of all the games going on, I choose the Arizona/ Anaheim matchup as one to sweat.
If Vegas was healthier, I’d consider them at +145 vs the Devils. Really don’t wanna go against the Devils though. Same with Washington at +135 vs the Avs. Really don’t wanna go against the Avs either, but feel like they’re getting more respect than they deserve. With the Devils I at least understand the high price based on what they’ve done this season. I anticipate both these prices going even higher towards the home favorites, and hopefully I can avoid the temptation of taking the dogs. If it gets too high I might have to put something down though.
Fla +135 doesn’t make much sense considering they were just +110 vs the Rangers, who Id rank slightly better than the Penguins currently. The goalie disparity and back to back is just too much for me to go against though. Florida is still a way better team to bet on at home than on the road as well. So not gonna play that one.
Philly at +125 is the closest play I’m considering. But I wanna see the goalies announced for both teams. Philly forced to call Sandstrom back up because his conditioning stint ran out is unfortunate for them. I don’t think he’s ready and has performed poorly in just about every start he’s made. I compared Ersson to Copley in the sense I expected regression from him at least record wise. And small sample size, but he did have the highest save percentage of the three Flyers goalies. Still waiting for Carter Hart to get back to his early season form. And it might not happen. Last 10 starts I believe he’s below 90 percent save percentage. First 10 games of the season he was rocking a 94. No play on this one but I’m tempted to take the Flyers.