Written by Scott on Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024
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6 games yesterday.
The Bruins beat the Jets 4-1 and Hellebuyck wasn’t strong for the Jets in the loss. The Devils beat the Knights 6-5 in OT with Toffoli scoring a hat trick and the OT winner.
The Canucks beat the Hawks 2-0 and its good we avoided this one it would have had to be Canucks -2.5 to get any value. The Sharks beat the Kings 4-3 in a shootout.
9 for us tonight.
Senators vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
The Sens won their last game but are 3-6-1 in last 10.
The Habs are on a 2 game skid and 4-4-2 last 10.
The Sens are ranked 10th in goals but allow the 30th most. The Habs are ranked 28th in both GPG and GAPG.
On the road the Sens have been terrible going 5-13, at home the Habs aren’t much better going 9-11-3.
The Sens have won the last 7 times when playing the Habs including last Thursday 6-2.
When these teams meet it usually a high scoring game. With both near the bottom of the league in goals allowed and the last 3 between these two being high scoring I’ll go with the over.
Over 6.5 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -132 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/23 8:04:19 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Stars vs Red Wings Betting Tips:
Stars are 5-3-2 last 10. On the road they have gone 13-5-4. They rank 3rd in goals, 14th in goals allowed and are 2nd in shooting percentage.
The Wings are 7-2-1 last 10 and 12-7-4 in Detroit. They rank 6th in goals, 22nd in goals against and are 3rd in shooting percentage.
I would think the Stars would win but just can’t as it should be a close game and would need to take them in regulation.
Lightning vs Flyers Betting Tips:
The Lightning are in 5th in the Atlantic and have gone 7-3 last 10. They haven’t been good on the road going 9-13-2. They are 11th in GPG and 23rd in GAPG.
The Flyers have dropped their last 2 games but had won 5 in a row before that. At home they have gone 11-10-2 and rank 23rd in goals, 8th in GAPG and 5th in SOGA.
With the Lightnings road record I like the Flyers chances here.
Flyers incl OT/SO if Hart in net
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -111 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.89 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/23 8:04:19 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Knights vs Islanders Betting Tips:
The Knights played the Devils last night and lost 6-5 in overtime. They are 5-4-1 in last 10.
The Isles are 3-5-2 in last 10 but did pick up a win in their last game which was coach Roy’s debut.
The Knights were called out by their coach after they blew a lead last night and said they were playing beer league hockey. I would think that might motivate them. But the Isles got a win under their new coach so they also may be ready for this one.
Capitals vs Wild Betting Tips:
Both teams have had down years.
The Caps are in 5th in the Metro and are 5-5 last 10. They rank 30th in goals, 29th in shots and 10th in goals allowed. They are 9-9-2 on the road.
The Wild are in 7th in the Central and 4-5-1 last 10 but are on a 2 game win streak. They rank 20th in goals, 19th in shots and 25th in goals allowed.
Blues vs Flames Betting Tips:
The Blues are in 6th in the Central and 4-5-1 last 10. On the road they are 8-12-1.
The Flames are in 5th in the Pacific and 6-4 last 2 but have lost their last 2 games. At home they’ve gone 11-9-1.
Either team has been that good this season. They both rank in the middle of the league in most stats. Just having a tough time trying to predict a winner here.
Jackets vs Oilers Betting Tips:
Jackets 3-4-3 last 10. They rank 21st in GPG, 31st in GAPG and 30th in shots allowed. On the road they have gone 5-9-5.
The Oilers are a machine right now. They have won 13 games in a row, are 4th in goals and 1st in shots on goal. Those two stats vs the Jackets stats of the same thing tell us that the Oilers should win this game. They are at home where they have gone 13-6-1.
The odds are so lopsided that we would have to take the Oilers -2.5. It is something that could happen but 2 of their last 5 needed extra time so I feel better just avoiding this.
Sabres vs Ducks Betting Tips:
Sabres are 6-4-0 last 10 and 20-22-4 on the season. On the road they’ve gone 9-10-3. They allow more goals than they score.
The Ducks are 2-7-1 last 10, on a 3 game losing skid and are 15-30-1 this season. At home they have gone 6-17-1. They also allow more than they score.
I have no confidence in either team.
Rangers vs Sharks Betting Tips:
The Rangers are still in 1st in the Metro but haven’t been that good of late going 4-5-1. On the road they gave gone a respectable 14-9-2. They are 13th in goals and 9th in goals allowed.
The Sharks played last night and won 4-3 in a shootout.
I’m not touching the Sharks. If we were to take the Rangers it would have to be -1.5 and the odds for that are only 1.74 so it’s not worth it.
Took Montreal +124 on the opening line yesterday for half unit. Not a confident pick, and I can easily see Montreal losing here. But this was a value pick for me at the time.
All things considered now, I probably like Scott’s Over 6.5 play better. It is heavily juiced now at -142, but understandably so.
Especially with a potential Korpisalo vs Allen matchup in net. Allen hasn’t played much so his small sample size can see a lot of variance. Recent good performances vs Winnipeg ( Win, 2 goals against, .938 SV%) and his last game vs Colorado ( Win, 3 goals against, .914 SV%). But they are few and far between.
His good start to the season back in October has propped his overall stats up to make them look better than they probably should. However, removing that first month and going from November forward, tells a different story.
11 games, 2-8-1 record, .888 SV%, and 3.54 GAA. So now we see those two “recent” wins have been his only wins since October. And he had to stand on his head to get them. Also the Winnipeg win was back on December 18th, making it not even recent, lol.
Quickly on Korpisalo, he’s following up a terrible December with a mediocre January. To go along with his overall below average goaltending stats. He’s 4-10-1 over his last 16, with a .874 SV% and roughly a 3.56 GAA.
For anyone interested in the logic behind my early play on Montreal. I priced Montreal -115 at home. Montreal opened +124 home underdogs, so it immediately drew my interest.
At the time goalies hadn’t been announced so I’m looking at it on a more generic level. And it’s more an anti Ottawa play than confidence in Montreal.
Ottawa hasn’t been consistent and has vastly underachieved up to this point. Goaltending issues plague them, regardless who’s in net. And they are 5-13-0 away from home. So why are they being priced -148 here on the road?
I keep a rudimentary log of line prices, so there is some room for error here. But I went back and looked at what I’ve had for Ottawa on the road. To my knowledge, they’ve only been a road favorite once.
On December 1st they were also a -148 favorite on the road vs Columbus. I have CBJ ranked right below Montreal in my Power Rankings, so it’s comparable. The result was a 4-2 loss for Ottawa. Small sample definitely.
I also see Ottawa at minus money twice more at the road. December 14 at St. Louis and December 19 at Arizona. Both were also losses. Both ranked higher than Montreal in my Rankings though.
Looking back I liked the Montreal +124 much more a day ago. However, if I hadn’t made the play it’s not one I would make currently. With it being a half unit play, and still potential to steal one vs an underachieving Senators team, I’ll let it play out. But I might be grading this one a loss.
Two More Plays for me that I’m feeling so-so about. But may have value. Both on the same game. They are
Vegas +130
and a half unit on draw after regulation +370
Vegas at +130 is a potential “fade the public” play from me. Which is who I’m assuming has driven the Islanders price up. The factors I’m thinking behind the Islanders being a public pick that may have made them too expensive at their current price are… Vegas injuries, Vegas on a back to back, Vegas inconsistent recent form, and Islanders new coach theory. All these combined may give me value on Vegas.
I handicapped this as -110 for both sides. Islanders opened -125. Factoring in injuries, back to back, recent form etc, these are all things I don’t know how to properly price. Books probably do, at least way better than me and probably have actual numbers attached, which I currently don’t. With that said, the -125 for the Islanders is probably the correct number and I like that better than my -110. However what’s happened since?
We now see Islanders up to -155. Islanders price has gone up to 60.7 percent from 55.5. 5.2 percent is a hefty tax so where’s it coming from? This is not a game I see as an 80-20 or 90/10 ticket split. Needing the Islanders to come through 61 percent of the time to be profitable? Removing the 5 percent for home, and Islanders are currently 6 percent better than Vegas? I’m not seeing it. Does Vegas win this game at least 43 percent of the time? Which is what I would need for the Vegas +130 to be profitable? I think that’s more likely.
New coach boost is a theory admittedly I tend to like playing. Is it a real thing with an exact edge though? That’s more debatable. So how’d the Islanders do? Well they won so that’s good. But looking at the advanced metrics tell me something different. I don’t like to use the word lucky, but fortunate to beat the Stars might be more appropriate. Some advanced metrics on the Islanders win vs Dallas according to Natural Stat Trick
Dallas won the Corsi 82-48
Won the Fenwick 58-37
Won the shots 43-28
Won the XGF 3.71 to 2.49
Won the scoring chances 44-32
High Danger chances was close but still won 15-14
Won the Mid Danger 29-18
So maybe not such a great boost in performance off the new coach.
Line pricing. The highest Vegas has been as a road underdog this year Im seeing is on January 10 at Colorado. They were +120 and did lose the game 3-0. Eichel also was not injured yet. I wish I had a consensus of where the line closed, but I don’t. However, I have Colorado ranked significantly higher than the Islanders. Getting Vegas at one of their highest prices on the year seems like value to me.
Vegas is also 3-0-1 in the short term since Eichel’s injury. They’ve scored 17 goals in the four games vs Nashville, Rangers, Penguins and Devils. This gives me some confidence they can get enough scoring in the short term, until it gets proven otherwise.
There shouldn’t be lack of motivation for Vegas either. Could Vegas be fatigued by the back to back? Absolutely. However no real significant travel from Jersey to NY is a slight plus eliminating the travel and weather aspects of it. Can the New York nightlife play a role? Absolutely. But what’s a team that might not be as fazed by it? Maybe one from Vegas which has a significant nightlife of its own. Will the Vegas players overlook their opponent and potentially take a night off? Hard to envision coming off a loss. A loss where they battled back to take a 5-3 lead, only to blow it. A team called out by its coach. A team banged up and with the red hot Oilers, winners of 13 straight and 5 games in hand, breathing down their necks. They could be fatigued and lose the game because they don’t have the energy for a full 60. But I do think they will give whatever effort they have.
Also they get Adin Hill back in net which should be a morale boost especially after conceding 6 just yesterday.
Now Hill can be rusty as he hasn’t played a full game since November 27. Only two partial games after. Vancouver he played 40 minutes and finally just 6 minutes vs Ottawa back on December 17 which is now over a month ago. I don’t know what I’m going to get from him tonight assuming he does start. He hasn’t been officially confirmed but the projections are he will. This is the biggest part of the gamble for me. But looking at his stats and potential shows why it’s worth the risk.
10-2-2 record. 1.93 GAA, .933 SV%. Graded with a quality start in 11 of his 15 games. It’s a big if to get him to immediately return back to this form, but the potential is there and will greatly swing the odds in Vegas favor if he can.
While the Islanders home crowd is one of the better ones, we are getting a weekday non conference game here. Also once again looking at Natural Stat Trick, and The Islanders have only two 2 games this month with an XGF over 3. These tend to vary from site to site so take the source for what it’s worth. Opponent considered, and maybe this can be a good team for Hill to come back against. If we get a rusty Hill, I don’t like the handicap as much. But it’s still not impossible for Vegas to overcome. If we get Hill anywhere near the form he’s been in this season, and I love getting Vegas +130 here.
Which ties into my half unit wager on the draw after regulation. We could see an open back and forth game, or goals at a premium. Total set at six, with some 5.5’s available as well. Effort should be there for both teams. Islanders on the high end with 17 games going past regulation. Vegas tied with Seattle in the West with 13. While I think Vegas can overcome their injury situation in the short term, we are losing about 45 goals of production from the 4 key guys out for them this game. So maybe a Vegas win minus the margin gives added value to the likelihood of a draw at solid +370 odds.
Do you ever feel like you just can’t win a hockey game? It’s tough