Written by Graeme on Saturday, January 25th, 2025
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It’s a busy Saturday with a lotta games as per usual.
Nothing to take home from yesterday. Wish I had taken the Islanders as they did lock up another little solid win. Knights continue to Knight. Lightning barely got the win so glad I avoided that one.
Alright let’s get right into todays slate of games. Kind of feel like flying through these today – just in that sorta mood – so if I don’t see anything much at first glance the write-up will be short.
Bruins vs Avalanche
Eh not feeling either team. Avs much better CF% & FF% but the rest are iffy. Their lack of GF/xGF is a big factor in not playing them against this defense which concede a ton.
Oilers vs Sabres
Obviously, like the Oilers here. Would have to be -1.5. Metrics actually do point towards that so lets dive deeper. Solid Corsi & Fenwick advantage for Oilers. Scoring more but their xGF is actually higher. Against the Sabres metrics they should put the goals up.
Reimer likely which is good news. Yeah this is a play. Not even one where I need to look at the empty net stats – data wise it’s good without having to factor that in.
Oilers -1.5
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/25 10:20:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kraken vs Penguins
Not loving either team here they just played recently too and I usually pass on that. Data has it pretty close. Don’t see value.
Wild vs Flames
Seems quite close I wouldn’t have Wild as big favourites. But not enough to back on the Flames.
Blues vs Stars
Eh – nothing here. GF/60 and xGF/60 all make it a bit of a wash.
Jackets vs Kings
Neither team really jumping out at me. By the data there might be value on the Jackets. Let’s see – Corsi and Fenwick both worse (especially Corsi). Scoring more, conceding a little bit more. Slightly better xGF, xGA/60 the same.
Better SCGF%, do rely a bit more on HD chances but the Kings with a great HDGA and HDCA.
Man this one has me actually leaning the Jackets here considering the odds. Jackets playing solid at home. Elvis should be in.
Yeah I think there’s enough to go with the home dogs here.
Jackets incl OT/SO if Elvis is in net
Ontario: 2.45 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.52 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +152 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.52 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/25 10:20:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canadiens vs Devils
Not loving anything here looking at the data. The big Q is if the Devils can carry on with the goalscoring after that Bruins one or if its an anomaly. Their offense is in desperate need of a hot streak.
Wings vs Lightning
Just played so happy to pass. Data is all very tight anyway. Definite value on the Wings but not enough for me to back. But yeah that’s a slightly +EV play I’d say just based on the metrics.
Senators vs Leafs
Neither team really worth backing at the moment. Plus these games can be mental and high variance. Happy to pass. The “over” used to be an automatic play in these games but seems to have lost its lusture over the last bit.
Islanders vs Hurricanes
Passing due to Islanders B2B. Data leans Canes wa but the Islanders defensive metrics have been solid. The B2B might mess them up though.
Sharks vs Panthers
Yeah I ain’t taking Panthers -1.5 on the road considering how they are playing ha. The xGF and Corsi etc back it up but their actoal goal scoring record does not. Very inconsistent.
Metrics definitely go Preds way. They should win but no way jose am I betting them in regulation on the road. But it’s probably a decent bet.
Canucks vs Capitals
This is one where my trap alarm goes off in my head. Feels like a solid little Caps win but the bookies are giving us very generous odds.
Let’s see….Canucks actually better CF%. FF% the same. Caps scoring a ton more and conceding a ton less. Canucks not creating well either. So it’s not like their scoring is cold – their entire offense is just shitting the bed right now.
Caps on a road trip and two wins so far. They have 2 more games after this on it. Their defense playing well.
These two did have that tight o ne back on the 8th where Washington needed OT and they were at home. But that was during a tricky spot for Washington.
Bleh. HockeyViz have the Canucks at 51% to win too. Moneypuck has em at 45%.
Bleh. Could be a trap but there are just too many checkmarks for it.
Caps incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -122 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/25 10:20:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
B. Marchand is going to score for Bruins
Hey. Is there some mistake in your sentence: “ Against the Sens metrics they should put the goals up.” Did you mean Sabres instead of Sens?
Yes just a typo 🙂 Thanks I’ll update it!
Thanks. Just wanted to make sure you weren’t accidentally comparing metrics to Sens. Good luck tonight!