Written by Graeme on Friday, January 26th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
Yesterday was a very feel-good type of day, I gotta say.
Went 2-0 with the bets. Had the Canes and Lightning, and both duly delivered. Canes was tight as expected, Lightning checked all the boxes and came through with ease.
Reads of the other games seemed pretty spot on including how close some games would be to covering, and the highlight of course was choosing not to back the Flames. That felt good when the Jackets pulled away.
Four game slate today.
Rangers vs Knights:
I’m pretty much fine avoiding anything with the Rangers at the moment. These two just recently played where the Knights ran out 5-1 winners, but that quick turnaround always puts me off.
At a glance, Knights as such big dogs seems quite a surprise. 2.30 wow.
Metrics are so all over the place. Rangers with a great xGF of 3.45 but an SCGF of just 1.58. Rangers are at home where they generally perform better.
Honestly it is pretty close. There is a lot of merit to taking the Knights if Hill is in net. He stepped back in against the Islanders and pulled off 40 saves. Islanders had an xGF of 4.52 in that one as well.
Very close to taking the Knights here. If this was in a vaccuum and that game last week hadn’t taken place, I’d be backing them.
Penguins vs Panthers:
Pens come in off the back of a couple of road losses. Their home form has been shaky lately. Panthers I’m just not fully ready to trust after that bad run. The metrics are generally close – you’re basically banking that the Panthers offense continues to overperform, while the Pens offense continues to underperform.
If the Panthers were dogs I’d take them here. Alas, they are not.
Avs vs Kings:
Avs won two on the trot, and host the dismal LA Kings who just can’t recapture the magic. Corsi and Fenwick Kings have slight edge. The Avs goaltending and defensive metrics are not good. The HDG stats are strongly in the Avs favour here though.
Avs over the last 10 have the best HDGF/60 while Kings have hte 2nd worse HDGA/60.
That could be the deciding point there. In saying that, Avs have the WORST HDGA/60 ha.
Anyway for this one, I basically went through a lot of the metrics from both teams last 10 opponents, looking for any consistency. There is nothing standing out, but the defensive metrics of the Avs have me concerned enough to pass. I do think they’ll take it though.
Kraken vs Blues:
Nothing I like to back in this game. Kraken slightly better offensive metrics. Probably wins them the game. But have to take them in regulation and I mean they just had a losing streak going and does beating the Blackhawks really count as ending it? Could result in overconfidence issues too etc.
Strong lean on Kraken in regulation but not enough in the data to back.
Hi Scott and Graeme. I have been following your page for the last 5-6 years already. Thank you for the time and effort that you put into this site. It is bit unfortunate for me that I live in Estonia as the games take place during the time I sleep, some weekend matches are the only exception 😀
Bit personal question but if I may.. How much money is your 1 unit that you bet on games? Do you always bet 1 unit or sometimes also 0,5 or 2 units? Would be interesting to know.
Good to hear from you mate. We have a large European following which is why we post the tips so early. It can be a bit detrimental to us due to team news later in the day, but it is what it is.
I’d rather not say how much I bet, but I will say it is substantial enough to spend multiple hours every morning on NHL.
For the website, we just do 1u plays. This is partly to keep it simple, and partly because when we introduced 0.5u plays and 2u plays to the mix, it just increased the negativity from the people who read who quite frankly, don’t understand sports betting.
0.5u plays were reserved for value bets so people couldn’t handle those losing more. 2u plays people took to mean “banker” and they’d go ape shit if we tipped a 2u play and it didn’t come in. Unfortunately, most people think successful sports betting is a sprint, not a marathon.
Personally, I bet between 1-5u myself, with 0.5u sometimes going onto big value bets. And when watching a game and wanting to bet on it, I’ll go with 0.5u to 1u primarily for entertainment.
You can probably get an idea of my bets just based on my write-ups and how I feel about a game. As an example, Tampa was a 4u play yesterday when I bet it at 1.80 (would have been 3u when it dropped to 1.74), Canes I went back and forth on it and went with 1u. I watched Oilers vs Hawks live, and did a 0.5u play on Oilers -1.5 although at the odds, I felt it was slightly -EV. I threw 0.5u on the Flames. I do a fair bit of live betting too.
Hope that helps.
Thank you for a detailed reply. I wish you all the best of luck.
I wanted to go with Vegas against my Rangers tonight too especially with Hill in net.
However I was looking for at least +145 to justify it. After getting Vegas +130 vs Islanders, I can’t really justify taking Vegas at that price again vs a team I have ranked better. I’ve seen it close now with Vegas at about +140.
A Rangers tight win also wouldn’t shock me.
I’m going with an unpopular bet on the Penguins +115 tonight. Don’t really like the pick or their chances if Florida is on their game. But this is kinda of auto play territory for me getting plus money with them at home. Even with Nedeljkovic in net. I just feel like the price has gotten low enough on Pittsburgh, and I can see them winning this game more than 47 percent of the time. My expectations are low as well going into so I’ve prepped myself for the potential it doesn’t come thru making it easier for me personally to play it.